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The South Carolina primary results don't mean Trump will be the nominee
The Brookings Institute ^ | February 20, 2016 | John Hudak

Posted on 02/20/2016 8:55:29 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

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To: 2ndDivisionVet
But along with his success as a businessman and tremendous wealth, he also had an easily critiqued history and absolutely no political experience. Combine that with the lack of polish and decorum expected of presidential contenders, and his candidacy seemed not only easily undermined, but doomed. Everyone underestimated Trump, assuming his brash, flippant, offensive, brutally honest, and clearly genuine rhetoric would force him out of the race quickly.
//————————————————————————————————//
The only thing Trump's unbelievable win in South Carolina tells us is that the Republican primary will continue to be an unbelievable mess...maybe even a YUGE one.


Only the foolish experts didn't know Trump was a winner.

Here is an insight for anybody that was not raised a Southerner.

As much as no one likes to talk about it here, the South is a vast "defeated nation." We should have "defeated nation status" just like Japan, Germany and Italy did after WWII. But wait, in that sense we had "The Reconstruction", with a military occupation and all that goes with it for 12 years as our "defeated nation.", didn't we? To this day monuments of our "defeated nation" are being removed all across the South.

The result over time was a heightened sensitivity and an amplified patriotism as an attempt to prove ourselves. It's the major reason that more Southerners join our military per capita than from any other region.

Southerners also still have a small spark of a grudge against the Federal Government (and its politicians).

The other effect of abject defeat is that we hate losing. Because of our heightened nationalistic pride, we feel acutely that the impact of unfettered illegal immigration, the threat of Islamic terrorism, the harsh economy on our poorer region of the country is a loss of our sovereignty under the US Constitution.

Donald Trump is a winner that is taking on all the demons that have been a bane on our existence. Of course we'll vote for him.

201 posted on 02/21/2016 2:35:32 AM PST by higgmeister ( In the Shadow of The Big Chicken! - already voted for Trump 2016 & Dude, Cruz ain't bona fide)
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To: TomasUSMC
2016: Donald Trump won with 33%, defeating runner-up Marco Rubio.

What do we see here?

Let me guess...

...a WHOLE lot of OTHER candidates missing?




202 posted on 02/21/2016 2:40:32 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Charles Henrickson
once again, two-thirds of Republicans do not want Trump but are split among the alternatives.

Oh??

once again, two-thirds of Republicans do not want Cruz but are split among the alternatives.

once again, two-thirds of Republicans do not want Rubio but are split among the alternatives.

203 posted on 02/21/2016 2:42:32 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Eva
The Insiders have been saying for weeks that when all the Bush, Kasich and Carson votes go to Rubio, he wins.

If would be apt.

204 posted on 02/21/2016 2:43:32 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Charles Henrickson
The fact is, Trump got 32.5% of the vote. 67.5% did not want Trump.


HMMMmmm...


http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president
 

South Carolina

  1. Presidential Primary,

    February 20, 2016

     
    Winner D. Trump 32.5%
    M. Rubio 22.5%
    T. Cruz 22.3%
    J. Bush 7.8%
    J. Kasich 7.6%
    B. Carson 7.2%
     


    The fact is, Rubio got 22.5% of the vote. 77.5% did not want Rubio.


    The fact is, Cruz got 22.3% of the vote. 77.7% did not want Cruz.


205 posted on 02/21/2016 2:51:13 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: AlanGreenSpam
I've met Ronald Reagan in person once... Trump is no Ronald Reagan.

Likewise...

Cruz is no Ronald Reagan;
Rubio is no Ronald Reagan;
Kasich is no Ronald Reagan;
Bush is no Ronald Reagan...

206 posted on 02/21/2016 2:54:24 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: JayGalt
I'm not sure I buy that. I associate conservatism with a more nuanced approach.

DAMN the 'nuances'!!

Full speed ahead!


207 posted on 02/21/2016 2:57:08 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Smokin' Joe
America will get the candidates it deserves.



Didn't you people learn ANYTHING

from the smoke of SODOM?

 

-- GOD


 

208 posted on 02/21/2016 2:57:55 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: davidb56
The constituents.....f#$k them...Thats their attitude.

Pappy O'Daniel: And furthermore, by way of endorsing my candidacy, the Soggy Bottom Boys are gonna lead us all in a rousing chorus of "You Are My Sunshine."

[Applause. Pappy turns away from the mike, towards Everett]

Pappy O'Daniel: [no-nonsense] Ain't you, boys?

Ulysses Everett McGill: Governor, it's one of our favorites.

Pappy O'Daniel: Son... you're gonna go far.

 

209 posted on 02/21/2016 3:03:08 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: matthew fuller
and I'm quite sure that an unknown chunk of that 32.5% was crossover Dems. And I'm pretty sure that the crossover Dem vote for Rubio and Cruz is negligible
and I'm quite sure that an unknown chunk of that 22.5% was crossover Dems. And I'm pretty sure that the crossover Dem vote for Rubio and Truimp is negligible
and I'm quite sure that an unknown chunk of that 22.3% was crossover Dems. And I'm pretty sure that the crossover Dem vote for Trump and Cruz is negligible
 
 
Uh huh.  I'm pretty sure that your pretty sure is wishful thinking.
 
 

210 posted on 02/21/2016 3:06:06 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Eva
Do you know what is in Ryan's TPP? Jobs for more immigrants. They want to send the workers here to fill jobs created by the bill.

Yes, I'm aware there is legislation in the pipeline, wanted by the Chamber, that would begin importing H-2 green card workers for semiskilled blue-collar jobs in great numbers.

What can I say? Businessmen just hate to meet a payroll, esp. if they can't cheat people and screw with their overtime pay. Houston's Channel 2 News and the L.A. Times visited New Orleans a year after "Katrina" and caught the contractors there a) importing and employing illegals and b) caught them dead-cold shortchanging the workers on their pay, pencil-whipping their hours.

One of the cheats was caught telling a reporter, "Well, at the end of the month you really can appreciate that flexibility that the illegals give you", meaning the ability to make your own numbers better by screwing guys who walked 1900 miles to come to work for you illegally.

These guys are choice, and they remind us why Jesus hated hypocrites.

211 posted on 02/21/2016 3:13:58 AM PST by lentulusgracchus ("If America was a house , the Left would root for the termites." - Greg Gutierrez)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

he also had an easily critiqued history and absolutely no political experience.


THAT IS EXACTLY what I look for in our next President. It’s actually a flip of what really is: Obama had an impossible critiqued history and no “ real world “ experience or managerial experience.

Look how that turned out?


212 posted on 02/21/2016 3:22:52 AM PST by DH (Once the tainted finger of government touches anything the rot begins)
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To: Elsie

213 posted on 02/21/2016 3:38:41 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: faithhopecharity

He wouldn’t terrible, no worse than Hill. A republican congress with him for president would keep him in check. At least that’s what my optimistic husband says.


214 posted on 02/21/2016 3:54:41 AM PST by cyborg (FReeper marriage...nine years of tea partying almost ten.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

You asked for comments and this is my comment.

Do you think it is at all possible to write something, anything, which does not include condescension?

Once I got to the condescension, I was really turned off. I scanned the rest and it did not sound particularly insightful, but I admit I was biased at that point, biased against you.

For the opponents of Trump, please consider this:

You do not know me, you do not know my intellect, my education, my background, my life experience or my work history. Try to keep that in mind when you (once again, for the 1000th time) describe what Trump supporters are thinking or feeling, or why they support Trump.

Please bear in mind, you may actually not know what you are talking about. As just one person, I can absolutely tell you, you do not know what you are talking about, because it never describes me, that much I know.

I say this respectfully and with friendship.


215 posted on 02/21/2016 4:05:57 AM PST by Gratia
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To: Elsie

That, Elsie is amazing.


216 posted on 02/21/2016 4:21:31 AM PST by JayGalt
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To: goldstategop

But if they deprive front-runner Trump of his prize, millions of voters will sit it out in November.

This is something nobody should worry about until Trump actually picks up the required delegates...if he does not, then one cannot say he is the clear choice of the people...

OTOH, should convention shenanigans occur with the clear winner, well, buckle your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride...


217 posted on 02/21/2016 4:50:28 AM PST by IrishBrigade
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
He makes very good points---nothing that we haven't discussed before here. The reality is that other than Texas (and, I predict, Utah) which Cruz should win, he will be hard pressed to win any state. Iowa took a Herculean effort and he still won by only 4500 votes and still came out with only one more delegate than Trump. I repeat, in the most "religious" and "evangelical" state---Iowa---Trump got an astounding 38,000 votes with no "ground game."

So where now? Rubio can't win alone. Cruz can't win alone. They are like Germany in WW I---they each need an ally. But do they gang up on Trump (hating each other as they do)? Or does one deal with the Donald? You know my prediction (and so far I have been right on Trump) from last summer. Cruz and Trump met in NYC twice, an hour and a half each time. They were'n't looking at Jimmy Chu catalogues. The deal then was, I remain convinced, three fold:

1) Keep from attacking each other as long as possible. (Grade: A+). They managed to only say nice things about each other until December. Remarkable. I remember the second debate (I think second) where the moderator tried to get Trump to say something bad about Ted and he said "Oh he's all right. Don't you worry about him."

2) Once they had to fight, they agreed it would be no holds barred. I am sure back in June and July Trump said, "When we come to that point I'm using everything--birth, flip-flops, anything I can," and I'm sure Cruz said "same here. I will call you a liberal, question your values." May the best man win.

3) Where we almost are now: Ted has MUCH more in common with Trump than Rubes: they are both outsiders, despised by the party and elites, pretty much on the same side of the big issues. I think Cruz knows that with Trump he would have a good shot at the Supreme Court. With Rubes, I think he knows he'll be a convenience, completely ignored if they win.

If I am Ted Cruz I give it til Super Tues, but the reality in "deal making" is you have to deal while you have cards to play. If Trump wins many more, Ted's cards will be gone.

218 posted on 02/21/2016 4:53:23 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
It's still not over but some seem to be hiding their heads in the sand and squinching their eyes shut real hard while saying, "Trump will fall, Trump will fall, Trump will fall".

I'm fine with Trump or Cruz, but it's looking like trump has the clearest route and possibly the best chance to beat the other side (Hillary and Bernie are the other side, not Trump or Cruz for those who have a "really strong preference" but many seem to have forgotten that.). March is about here and that's when i was expecting things to clear up a bit - with Jeb out too, things are looking like Trump/Cruz/Rubio duking it out to settle the dust and Rubio will have the support of the insiders and others who really want Hillary.

219 posted on 02/21/2016 4:55:06 AM PST by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: The Ghost of FReepers Past

Gingrich didn’t win 38,000 vote in IA and come away with just one less delegate, either.

Plus, look at Trump’s wife and look at Newt’s.


220 posted on 02/21/2016 4:56:02 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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