Posted on 02/19/2016 1:28:38 PM PST by dlt
Two polls, one from Clemson University and the other from Opinion Savvy, have been released since I wrote my blog post on SC. Both have Trump in the high 20s, suggesting tomorrow night will be closer than I predicted. Here's why I discount each poll.
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/2016-gops-four-faces/431622/distrust-latest-sc-gop-polls
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Thankfully tomorrow we will have the only poll that matters.
The one thing poles have proven is most primary poles are less than precise.
The current situation is that if Trump wins by less than 10 points he’ll look bad. It’s not fair, but that is my take on it.
makes sense
Well, that makes sense.
The WSJ national (don’t know about the SC) poll likewise yugely jacked up the “very conservative” numbers. Now, it is interesting that Trump does ALMOST as well as Cruz with this group—usually within a point-—but it is a very slight Cruz advantage. On the other hand, among the “college educated,” Trump does better than Cruz. If you go back through all the polls (sadly) Cruz appeals far more to less educated people.
The Polish are not to blame.
If he wins by 1% he still gets the delegates correct?
What are you talking about? If Trump doesn’t win by 110% of the vote it is a loss.
Do I need a sarc tag.
My take is a win anything above 5% is a strong finish, considering all the attacks that have been thrown at him. Cruz is spending lots of money to hold on in SC, they all are. Trump forces them to spend while he doesn’t have to spend as much.
Look, we expected closing polls, but we expect to win. Any win for Trump in SC will give a whole lot of momentum heading into super Tuesday.
Unlike the other pre-Super Tuesday primaries, the Republican South Carolina primary features a hybrid system that isn’t quite proportional awarding or winner-take-all. Whoever wins the statewide primary will win 29 of the state’s 50 delegates. The 29 delegates come from the 13 (10 at-large and 3 for the party leadership) that every state gets, and 16 bonus delegates based on South Carolina’s loyalty to the Republican party.
After that, the remaining 21 delegates are awarded by Congressional districts — three delegates for each of the seven districts. The regional system means candidates are focusing in on specific areas of the state, hoping to win those delegates.
I had to run a gauntlet of SEIU thugs who demanded to know for whom I would vote just to hold my nose and vote for the loser Romney.
I think photoshop was used in the making of that cover...
Whoever comes in 3rd will be declared the actual winner, and if Trump is in first, he will be declared the loser.
Exactly!
Yes, and some people claim that there’s a woman to blame
And I know it’s my own damn fault.
Thanks for the information!
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