Posted on 02/09/2016 10:43:20 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Donald Trump may have come out of New Hampshire with the victory, but Sen. Ted Cruz has emerged as the Republican front-runner.
Though Trump's victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn't put substantial effort into winning the state - where very conservative candidates don't typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.
As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths.
In Iowa, Cruz dominated Trump among "very conservative" voters, who made up 40 percent of the electorate, and evangelicals, who made up 62 percent of voters. But when it came to New Hampshire, evangelicals only comprised 25 percent of the electorate and "very conservative" voters dropped to 27 percent.
The South Carolina electorate is much closer to the Iowa electorate. In 2012, evangelicals were 65 percent of the electorate and very conservative voters were 36 percent of the electorate.
Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn't perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled.
Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that's misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz's win in Iowa.
Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record - on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights - among other issues. It won't dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn't matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.
Which brings us to Rubio's poor performance in New Hampshire. The fact that Cruz was able to best Rubio in a more moderate state where Rubio should have been a lot stronger, is more good news for Cruz.
Had Rubio won a strong second in New Hampshire, he could have knocked Kasich and Bush out of the race and emerged as a serious threat in South Carolina. Now Rubio will still have to spend his time in the state trying to fend of Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.
2016 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions Alphabetically by State
Trump won “very conservative” voters from Cruz in New Hampshire by 12 percent. Cruz lost moderates, “conservatives,” “slightly conservatives” even worse.
Cruz isn’t going anywhere.
Good morning G-P-H.
Trump smoked it in NH.
Congratulations.
Now we head to the heartland.
Does anyone take newspapers seriously anymore?
Very happy with a third place finish here. Some here on FR were prediction 5th or worse for Cruz.
Don't count your chickens before they're hatched.
Cruz got no delegates.
Trump will do very well in the south.
Cruz won’t do well at all on the east coast or the west coast.
What is t his writer smoking?
Good morning CW, I know tonight must have been hard, what with that three way tie from those first 36 votes you were touting over and over and over again on the forum. But I am here for you. Always will be.
>>Trump won ‘very conservative’ voters from Cruz in New Hampshire by 12 percent.
That is a shocker. Hopefully corrected in S.C. or SEC primary.
Iowa is done , that was Cruz’s high water mark ... even if Cruz wins SC , he’s not going to win Florida, Georgia, Tennessee , or Kentucky ... much less the Northern states ... it’s over for Cruz
Cruzbots continue to spin the wheels, on an upside down car.
Trump will win by 30 in South Carolina.
Although given his standing in the prediction polls in SC, along with the baggage that he's carrying, I see no way to view him as "leading" at this point. He's a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place contender. Not bad, and lots can happen to improve his prospects.
A close first place finish followed up by a distant 3rd place in the middle of a scrum with four other candidates.
Sorry, Rafael can’t round up enough day laborers or bus in enough of his fellow Canadians to help him in this state.
Not true. Cruz got 2 delegates in New Hampshire for his placing third.
The thought of Cruz as front runner is a real turn-off. If so, I’ll turn off Fox and Rush like I will not listen again to Beck. Guess liking Cruz is a litmus test for how much creepy condescension one can take.
Political ghosts are whispering your name, louder and louder.
This article is silly nonsense.
Remember those few folks who kept asking when the national primary was?
It’s now. In ten days it continues, and once against Trump is going to run the board.
Sure you can dig up articles like this. You did it every days since Iowa. How did that help today?
Ted got 33% of Trump’s vote. Every demographic went to Trump, including Conservatives. At this moment Trump has 35.1% and Ted has 11.7%.
In what universe does this depict Ted as now being the front runner?
100 vs 300.
You tell me which is bigger. This publication thinks it’s 100.
Excuse me while I bust a gut laughing at your desperation.
Many of Cruz’ supporters tonight were, but for a scant few, gracious towards Trump’s win ... But you and your cadre of die-hard TDS twits reveal yourselves insufferable fools.
Please, do continue with your meltdown.
It IS correct. And with Carson disappearing, Cruz can’t win by stealing his votes anymore.
You are incorrect.
Iowa Delegate Count - Cruz: 8
New Hampshire Delegate Count - Cruz: 2
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