Posted on 02/09/2016 6:35:04 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Still a ways to go for Hillary scandal-wise, so hard to tell.
Depends on the GOP candidate too of course, According to general election polls, most of the leading candidates would beat her (except Trump, Bush and Carson). I believe Sanders does better in head-to-head polls than Hillary.
Worst matchup for GOP, at the link, is Trump vs. Sanders (Sanders +7):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
| I think there is a very good chance Bernie could win and then we will be in a whole new era of absolute hell. If this is true, then the only way to take the country back may be through civil disobedience... or worse. The original American patriots faced that choice. Ben Franklin's prediction (my tagline) would come to fruition. But Trump is highly creative. If anybody can figure a way to win, it's him. So I have faith that we will not go communist -- or banana republic. |
Frankly, I think Sanders is potentially, not necessarily, the more formidable candidate. Because loony as he may be, he’s at least honest about it. Sanders embodies the anger of Dem voters and could represent their reaction to the deflated promises of 0bama.
I still have not the slightest idea how anyone can support HRC. On one of the exceptionally rare occasions when I watched TV, I saw a load of NH voters explaining why they support HRC. It’s all, apparently, because she’s a female. So I’m told. Her record of unending lies over 25 years is meaningless to these types.
The flip side of this is that Bernie Sanders is probably going to lose badly to Hillary Clinton among some key Democratic groups -- like blacks, homosexuals, and various assorted losers.
| These polls cannot be believed. Leftist are more apt to vote for a moderate than a conservative. And that's how Trump has positioned himself as right moderate. |
Winning comes down to 2 things.
Who can get people motivated to come out and vote?
Who can get the motivated people to vote their way?
Earned media, TV ads, internet spam and junk mail can only go so far. Any candidate is likely to put his foot in his mouth and hurt himself. Some candidates are more likely to do this than others.
But it can be demonstrated in election after election that the superior ground game of door knockers and in-person contact makes the difference.
Of Republicans, Cruz currently has the best ground game. But to win in November, the Republican will have to have a much better ground game than Cruz currently has.
The Conservative Establishment (Campaign Leadership Institute) argues against reaching out to those who are not already hard-R. But Trump has destroyed the entire curriculum of the CLI. (Others have proved its miscalculations in lesser races.)
Most people are not ideological. They vote based on who appears friendly and their friend. In an effective ground game the door-knocker appears friendly and the voter votes for the door-knocker even if not sold on the candidate.
The Repbulican winner will have to empower the volunteers of every primary contender to reach out to freinds and family and beyond that to neighbors and deliver the vote.
If there are 50,000 friends of primary R candidates in Ohio, then we need all 50,000 knocking on doors. The same in VA, CO, FL.
In the past I’ve been very successful at getting the Hispanic vote. It can be done. It is done by going door-to-door and appearing friendly and a friend. The same is true of other demographic groups. For youth, I suppose the goal is to be the cool, hippest flavor of the month and go viral.
Three things in politics:
Money,
People,
The brains to know what to do with them.
My granddaughter is very pro Trump, but a lot of her friends love Bernie... Thankfully she’s only sixteen, so her friends can’t vote! I hope they will be smarter in a few years.
I’m fairly sure that if Bernie wins (the gen’l election) literally nothing will get done in terms of legislation and frankly, that’s another route to staving off Congressionally-induced disaster.
| Not sure about gays. I think the gays are mostly young and would go with Bernie. But black voters are a much bigger demographic and I agree: that looks like a promising angle to take some share. |
At this point it doesn’t matter. They have to win the nomination first. Things will ebb and flow greatly between now and then, both R and D.
Polls are polls and it’s awfully early.
But I think Trump is the Dems dream opponent. Rich and rude.
We should raise the voting age to at least 21.
:)
Hillary would be easier to beat.
Hillary. But it depends on the candidates. Trump would be a disaster, and in any case, one third of his primary voters are Dems and would probably vote Dem in the general election.
Also, I suspect Bloomberg is going to run and it wouldn’t surprise me, if the GOP-e throws its support behind Trump (which it will), if we have a third party candidate on the right. Actually, that makes it four parties...
At least Bernie would hammer the bankers.
It is hard for me to ever dispute your conclusion. Fraud Fraud Fraud.
Bernie is a true Believer. A dead ender. A LaMoe.
He is freakin’ Rasputin.
Not only are they going to have to beat him, they will have to stake him, and decapitate him.
You only have to throw water on Hillary.
| Ah, but he has strong blue collar appeal. The union rank and file like him because he's promising to keep jobs. The biggest argument is going to be: "OK we've tried super liberal for 8 years and look: there are 100 million people out of work. Shouldn't we try the policies that made America great in the past?" The biggest problem for us however is the Kardashian Obamaphone Alliance -- the 40% who want Santa Claus and don't want to work. The electorate is corrupt... and is getting more so. That's why 2016 is such a critical election. |
I have been making that comparison for months.
Who gets to play RFK?
Oh, I have no doubt, the Republicans of contention are keeping their powder dry for the General, there is going to be napalm coming her way once the general war starts and the landmines have already been laid. She will not, I repeat, not ever win the General election. No need to open fire yet, keep it, wait for the white of the eyes.
Hillary will be a much easier candidate to defeat in 2016 than Sanders. But both will be defeated. The Republicans have already won. It is just a matter of which Republican.
But there is always the shadow person out there. 1968. All candidates need to, frankly, NOT get TOO close to the public. This IS 1968. It absolutely is.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.