Deace: New Hampshire Primary Predictions

Conservative Review ^ | 2/9/2016 | Steve Deace

[JediJones]

After nailing my Iowa Caucus predictions last week, the mucky mucks here at Conservative Review have asked me to see if I can do it again...

1. Donald Trump - 25%

Trump has been leading the polls in the granite state for months. While I believe he will underperform his public polling dominance once more, the lack of a coalesced rival - like Trump faced in Iowa with Cruz - gives him the edge in a crowded field. Not to mention that if a progressive nationalist like Trump can't win the least religious state in the country, then I'm not sure where he can win.

2. John Kasich - 18%

The liberal Ohio governor has pinned all of his hopes on New Hampshire, so his well-received debate performance the other night couldn't have come at a better time....

Remember, this is a state that has twice voted for John McCain in its primary, and Kasich is cut from the same cloth.

3. Ted Cruz - 17%

Less than 15% of the state's GOP base identifies as evangelical and/or born-again Christian, and it's a state that's sadly grown increasingly hostile to movement conservatives in recent years as well. Yet being the only one of those in a crowded race of progressives/moderates could actually benefit Cruz, because he's the only one really going for the conservative vote.

4. (tie) Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio - 15%

...this would be a devastating finish for Rubio and a shot in the arm for Bush...it might put the Rubio campaign into existential crisis-mode just a week after his third place finish in Iowa was blown way out of proportion.

One more thing to keep in mind - the Republicans have never nominated a candidate that didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire.

[usafa92]

Nate Silvers prediction model is Trump 27, Rubio 16, Kasich 15, Bush 14, Cruz 12. Deace may have been correct in Iowa because he is from Iowa, but he’s a Cruz hack writing for CR which is an extension of the Cruz campaign. We’ll go with Nate on this one.

[buckalfa]

"If Cruz doesn’t come in 2nd with at least 17%, does he lose, is it over for him?"

If Cruz comes in at least 5th in NH, his campaign will live to see another day. His campaign (or PACS) are super active in South Carolina, a state where Trump has to be stopped or his momentum (assuming he wins NH) likely will carry him to the nomination. I support Cruz as a matter of disclosure.

[MNJohnnie]

I suspect he is right. However, don’t rule out an upset Kaisch win. Guy has LIVED in NH for months. NH voters tend to vote for the candidates who come by and shovel the walk and pick up the dog poop for them.

[JediJones]

Coming in 2nd would be almost as good as winning for Cruz. NH is th Coming in third would be right on par and he lives to fight another day. Coming in fourth would sting, but he could pick up the pieces and move on without much trouble. Coming in fifth would be embarrassing and raise the stakes of South Carolina so that he would almost need a win or very close second to stay credible as a candidate. Coming in 6th would put him back to square one and almost cancel out his Iowa win.

[tanknetter]

Not a lot of analysis about Cruz’ play for the Libertarian vote.

Or whether Cruz can turn out evangelicals at a higher than expected rate, as he did in Iowa.

[jwalsh07]

I’d say Trump by a handful and then bunched up for 2-5.

[Boogieman]

Nah, nobody expects Cruz to do well in NH. South Carolina is where Cruz really needs to perform.

[who knows what evil?]

True dat.

[Boogieman]

“Cannot stand people who throw their view of morality and religion in everyone’s face.”

Well, the good news is, there is a political party you can join where you’ll never have to hear about religion or morality!

[tumblindice]

Steve Deace I wouldn't ask Deace for the time if he were wearing a Rolex chronometer. Like the Kasich poll that put Kasey 2nd, Deace's answer would be, "It's Cruz time!"

[txhurl]

Like Deace mentioned, only Cruz is going after the conservative vote, small as it is.

[jwalsh07]

What was your prediction for Iowa?

[libbylu]

I predicted Cruz, Rubio then Trump in Iowa and it was really close. I’ll be surprised if Trump makes 25% in NH.

[Georgia Girl 2]

I know Deace loves Cruz but in NH I think he’s dreaming of Cruz coming in second.

[JLS]

Not exactly.

That graphic cherry picks different polls in different years and does not track a poll in each election season. So the average miss is not 14.4 percentage points but rather some other number for elections when all of the contests for both parties when there is not an incumbent president of the party.

[Beagle8U]

3rd would be as good as a win for Cruz.

The question for me is can Trump win by a wide enough margin? A close win for Trump in liberal NH doesn’t bode well for him in southern states.

[Gee Wally]

Of all the dispositions and habits which lead to political prosperity, religion and morality are indispensable supports. In vain would that man claim the tribute of patriotism, who should labor to subvert these great pillars of human happiness, these firmest props of the duties of men and citizens. The mere politician, equally with the pious man, ought to respect and to cherish them. A volume could not trace all their connections with private and public felicity. Let it simply be asked: Where is the security for property, for reputation, for life, if the sense of religious obligation desert the oaths which are the instruments of investigation in courts of justice ? And let us with caution indulge the supposition that morality can be maintained without religion. Whatever may be conceded to the influence of refined education on minds of peculiar structure, reason and experience both forbid us to expect that national morality can prevail in exclusion of religious principle.

[redangus]

Kasich 24%
Trump. 21%
Rubio. 17%
Cruz. 15%
Bush. 9%
Fiorina 6%
Christie 4%
Carson 4%

I could swap Rubio and Cruz, and possibly Kasich and Trump but I think this is pretty close.

I could reverse

[dfwgator]

I think Christie will be the big surprise.

[usafa92]

Thanks for quoting Washington. Next time add a quotation to it to give proper credit. Apparently you’re another one that thinks he’s too cute and smart for the rest of us. You want to fling quotes around all day we can do it. I’m pretty sure I have about a 100 of them off the top of my head and don’t need to cut and paste. But thanks for attempting to enlighten me.