PLEASE MAKE YOUR DONATION!
Posted on 02/08/2016 7:15:35 PM PST by Hojczyk
But because of a quirk in how the state party allocates delegates and how fractured the "establishment" field is, it could mean that an anti-Trump vote will actually be a vote for the New York billionaire.
Here's how:
The state party awards delegates on a proportional basis to presidential candidates based on their vote statewide and by congressional district.
But it also has a 10 percent threshold.
What does that mean? It means that if a candidate does not get 10 percent of the vote, he gets no delegates.
And, right now, the favorite is Trump.
Trump, after all, has been leading in the polls in New Hampshire by double digits for six straight months.
Meanwhile, the so-called "establishment" candidates — the kind of mainstream Republicans that usually prevail in New Hampshire — are split. And after Saturday night's debate, with Marco Rubio's lackluster performance, that establishment vote could be fractured even further.
There are 20 delegates at stake in New Hampshire on primary night. Here's a look at how the candidates are performing in the polls currently, what that could translate to delegate-wise and how the 10 percent threshold could affect things.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, here's the order of the candidates (with a line inserted to represent the 10 percent cutoff):
— Trump 31 percent — 6 delegates — Rubio 16 percent — 3 delegates — John Kasich 12 percent — 2 delegates — Ted Cruz 12 percent — 2 delegates
— Jeb Bush 9 percent — Chris Christie 5 percent — Carly Fiorina 5 percent — Ben Carson 3 percent
So let's do some math: Everyone below the 10 percent threshold — Bush, Christie, Fiorina and Carson — add up to 22 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at npr.org ...
The Ministry Of Propaganda seems particularly concerned that we might actually nominate Trump and not one of the Designated Losers, as usual.
Then just vote for Trump and cut out the middleman.
GREAT IDEA! :-)
I am voting for Donald Trump because he is an Anglo Saxon white Christian American male . They make the best leaders on planet Earth. without any doubt, when the fur flies we will be glad that he is our president and the commander-in-chief of our armed forces. And the fur is going to fly. Whether we like it or not.....
They’re getting desperate.
I think the powers that be are starting to lose their mind.
The powers-that-be like their pols to shoot word salad at the plebes. Trump actually answered questions during the recent ABC debate. That’s a no-no.
In less than 90 minutes we will see Dixville Notch voting, i predict 100% for Donald Trump.
Or, just for giggles they vote for Carson.
Trump is in the middle. Between the Leftist Democrats and and the Center of the conservative Rinos. That of course makes Trump a left side Rino, near the big mass called the center and then a squeak left to bait Abandoned Democrats left behind by the progressives.
You can find that in all the candidates left, some which may prove to be between Hillary and Trump. Say Rubio, or Kasich. Christie is in the Trump zone as well, and Jeb! may be right up there between Trump and Rubio. Cruz is on the awefully close to the Rino right and there is a big gap between him and Trump.
Yeah. He’s a genuine Neanderthal. You know, reddish hair, just like Washington and Jefferson.
The GOP has been tweaking the delegate rules for many states since 2012 in order to prevent a non establishment or tea party candidate from rising. It backfired on them because Trump is way more popular than the others. If he bring votes in similar to his poll numbers, the GOPe will be hurting.
For this same reason, Cruz would have a hard time winning the nomination even if Trump dropped out today. The rules are set to kill candidates like Cruz.
Motto of GOP-E and Libs from Mark Twain: Of all the things I’ve lost, I miss my mind the most.
Bush is now above 10 percent. Carson is down to 1 or 2. Fiorina 3 or 4, and Christie 5 to 7. Altogether, the bonus for finishing first will be 10 to 12 points. Yes, it’s something, but not much. Trump will win easily, and his earned percentage of 30 or 31 percent will be supplemented by the percentages of those under 10 percent. He will thus qualify for a total of 42 to 45 percent of the delegates. I don’t know why the Republicans of NH made these rules, but let’s keep our eye on what is important.
Bottom line of NPR’s nightmare scenario:
Trump gets 10 out of the total 20 NH delegates.
Iowa didn’t count towards the 8 states that Cruz needs to even get nominated, because he didn’t win a majority of the delegates.
If that is the case, then it is doubtful that any of the states up until we get to the winner-take-all states will count for anyone. I don’t see anyone winning an absolute majority of delegates in any of the proportional states.
b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight ( 8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.
It's conceivable Trump will have his 8 by the end of Super Tuesday.
I don't see anybody else getting 8 states.
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