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Trump Desperately Trying to Hide the Shrinking Size of his Crowds
Red State ^ | February 4, 2016 | Leon H. Wolf

Posted on 02/04/2016 11:55:32 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

There's a reason why Donald Trump is taking his loss in Iowa so hard - it's been devastating to his national standing. His standing in the polls might already be falling like a rock, and now it appears that the rolling concert tour that was his national campaign might be coming to an end. Now comes pretty convincing evidence that his crowds are shrinking, and he's trying to hide it (poorly).

Trump was in Little Rock last night, and he tweeted a picture that seemed to show a typical Trump full house, and that specifically claimed that the crowd was a "record" and that it was "12K."

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

THANK YOU to everyone in Little Rock, Arkansas tonight! A record crowd of 12K. #Trump2016https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/posts/10156603612740725:0 .. 8:31 PM - 3 Feb 2016 Little Rock, AR, United States

The problem, as IJ Review notes, is that the total capacity for the arena where Trump held this event, including floor capacity, is 10,195. So in order for this count to be accurate, this would truly have been an absolutely astounding overflow crowd. The only problem is, it wasn't. Media was there at the event, and documented how, during Trump's speech, large sections of the seating were completely empty and the floor was at most half full.

Here is video that was taken during the event, you can clearly hear that Trump is speaking, and the arena looks at least half empty.

As the Daily Mail notes, Trump at one point claimed that the Fire Marshal said it was a record and they were turning people away. Trump asked the Fire Marshal to come up on stage and confirm it for the benefit of the media, and the "Fire Marshal" allegedly obliged. The only problem is that the man who came on stage was not the fire marshal, but rather the general manager of the state fair.

Of course, the bigger question might well be, what the heck is Donald Trump doing in Arkansas in the first place? Is he really so sure that he will win New Hampshire that he has no concern over New Hampshire's historically late break? Or the optics of being off across the rest of the country while the rest of the field is camped in state?


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arkansas; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 1repost; 1stcanadiansenator; 2016election; 2repost; 3repost; 4repost; arkansas; assclownposter; braindeadbots; brokenrecord; campaigning; cnsrvtvtreehouse; cruzchoir; cruzintoclintonwin; demagogicparty; election2016; enoughalready; erickerickson; glennbeck; habitualliar; hillary; hillaryclinton; hitlery; hystericsforcruz; ibtz; ilovetowhine; leonhwolf; leonwolf; liarsforcruz; marklevin; megynkelly; memebuilding; newyork; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; pinkstain; pinkstate; politico; redstate; redstatedeathwatch; redstategathering; rogerailes; sundance; tds; tedssleazebots; time4atimeout; trump; waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah; wipewater
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February 04, 2016 - PPP: Republican Race Tightens Nationally; Clinton Still Solid

PPP's newest national poll finds the race on the Republican side tightening considerably in the wake of Donald Trump's surprise loss in Iowa on Monday night. Trump's lead has fallen to just 4 points - he's at 25% to 21% each for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, 11% for Ben Carson, 5% each for Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and the now departed Rand Paul, 3% each for Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina, and 1% for Jim Gilmore. Rick Santorum had literally zero supporters on our final poll including him.

Trump's 25% standing reflects a 9 point drop from our last national poll, which was taken the week before Christmas. It reflects an overall decline in Trump's popularity with GOP voters. Trump's favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24 standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the right - he's dropped to 3rd place with 'very conservative' voters at 19% with Cruz at 34% and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and 'somewhat conservative' voters to give him the overall advantage.

Rubio is the candidate with the real momentum in the race. He's up 8 points from his 13% standing in our poll right before Christmas. Beyond that he's seen a large spike in his favorability rating - it's improved a net 28 points from +15 at 49/34 to +43 at 64/21. That ties him with Ben Carson as being the most broadly popular candidate on the Republican side.

Things also bode well for Rubio as the field gets smaller in the coming weeks. In a four candidate field he gets 32% to 31% for Trump, 23% for Cruz, and 8% for Bush. In a three candidate field he gets 34% to 33% for Trump and 25% for Cruz. And in head to heads he leads both Trump (52/40) and Cruz (46/40). As other candidates drop out of the race Rubio is the most likely destination of their supporters.

Cruz is actually pretty steady in his national standing even after his surprise victory in Iowa. His 21% standing is up just slightly from 18% in December and his favorability rating is basically unchanged - it was 59/27 then and it's 58/28 now. One thing Cruz has going for him is that when you combine first and second choices he comes out ahead with 41% to 36% for Rubio, and 32% for Trump. That's another metric indicating the difficulty Trump may have in growing his support. Additionally Trump trails Cruz 47/41 head to head, which bodes poorly for him if they end up being the finalists.

The race continues to be very fluid. Only 50% of voters say they're firmly committed to their current candidate choice with the other 50% saying they're open to changing their minds between now and the election. This is one place where there continues to be good news for Trump. 71% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 52% of Cruz's and 44% of Rubio's. Among just voters who say their minds are totally made up Trump's lead grows to 13 points at 35% to 22% for Cruz, and 19% for Rubio. Of course there was a similar dynamic in late Iowa polling, and that wasn't enough to push him to victory there.

Rand Paul saw the writing on the wall and dropped out of the race yesterday but others with similar or even less support than him continue on. Bush continues to be unpopular with GOP voters nationally - only 37% see him favorably to 47% with a negative opinion. He continues to face intense distrust from conservatives with just 32% having a positive opinion to 52% who view him unfavorably.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 53/32. Sanders does keep gradually moving closer - our previous couple polls had her leading 56/28 in December and 59/26 in November. But he still has some weaknesses that may make it hard for him to catch up. Primary among these is African American voters - Clinton leads 82/8 with them and has a 79/9 favorability compared to 27/23 for Sanders. That does suggest some possibility for Sanders to improve his position - part of his problem is just that black voters don't really know him yet - but he's starting at a tremendous disadvantage that will make the upcoming run of Southern primaries very difficult for him.

Full results

1 posted on 02/04/2016 11:55:32 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

TedState speaks, the guy who can’t get a crowd and has to resort to dirty tricks to win.

How uplifting.


2 posted on 02/04/2016 11:57:51 AM PST by dforest
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

WOW Do you ever give up?

All day.

Instead of fighting between the two camps how about focusing on Rubio, unless you want Rubio and are here to divide and conquer for the establishment.


3 posted on 02/04/2016 11:58:25 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

This....is not good for Mr. Trump. Reminds me of some shooting stars we knew growing up..a flash pan fire, with no RECORD, nothing to point to active support to a CAUSE or a party, but a lot of hot air.


4 posted on 02/04/2016 11:58:57 AM PST by rovenstinez
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To: manc

Rubio is going to have some time in the barrel.


5 posted on 02/04/2016 11:59:20 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Trump's latest big endorsement?

Jimmy Carter: I Prefer Trump Over Cruz

Hattip Rush for pic.

6 posted on 02/04/2016 11:59:31 AM PST by TexasCajun (#BlackViolenceMatters)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I covered this in a previous post, but the Trumpsters refused to believe the video link I posted. Who are you going to believe? Donald or your lying eyes??? LOL


7 posted on 02/04/2016 11:59:37 AM PST by reegs
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To: manc

I’ll take Rubio over Trump.

Cruz first, of course. But never Trump.


8 posted on 02/04/2016 11:59:53 AM PST by bolobaby
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
LoL Trump had 12,000 last night in Barton Coliseum. Trump filled up this place.


9 posted on 02/04/2016 12:00:21 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: reegs

Facts don’t matter to some people.


10 posted on 02/04/2016 12:00:34 PM PST by bolobaby
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To: Red Steel

How many college students did he pay $25. a head this time?


11 posted on 02/04/2016 12:00:58 PM PST by caww
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

trump will now threaten to sue red state for posting this. Shortly after he calls them stupid.


12 posted on 02/04/2016 12:01:23 PM PST by Durbin
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Trumps speech started some 2 hours late due to his plane problems. Thousands still waited for him to show up.


13 posted on 02/04/2016 12:01:54 PM PST by ironman
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To: reegs

It’s showmanship, salesmanship....

it’s....

[In his 1987 book “Art of the Deal”, Donald Trump put it bluntly: “I play to people’s fantasies. ... I call it truthful hyperbole. It’s an innocent form of exaggeration - and a very effective form of promotion.”]


14 posted on 02/04/2016 12:02:02 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: TexasCajun

“Trump’s latest big endorsement?”

That’s freaking hilarious.


15 posted on 02/04/2016 12:02:41 PM PST by Durbin
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

It was also reported that in Council Bluffs, Iowa Trump canceled a 15,000 seat venue and replaced it with a 500 seat Middle School gym that he didn’t quite fill.


16 posted on 02/04/2016 12:03:27 PM PST by conservativejoy (Pray Hard, Work Hard, Trust God ...We Can Elect Ted Cruz)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Funny how the pro-Ted screed you attach as your first reply is now much longer than the actual articles themselves.

You need help!


17 posted on 02/04/2016 12:03:30 PM PST by ConservativeWarrior (Fall down 7 times, stand up 8. - Japanese proverb)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Why don’t we close down FR and just all go over to Redstate.com. All their dribble gets reposted here anyways.


18 posted on 02/04/2016 12:03:38 PM PST by McGruff (We're not in Iowa anymore Heidi.)
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To: manc

Hear, Hear! I am SO done with the Cruz/Trump wars.

We’d best get our collective stuff together and get Rubio out of the picture, or say hello to Madam President.

Can’t see the forest for the trees?


19 posted on 02/04/2016 12:03:40 PM PST by kozanne
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

For many people the fascination with Trump is that he’s supposed to be unstoppable. Take that away and what’s left? A very rich, vulgar, loudmouthed bully.


20 posted on 02/04/2016 12:03:59 PM PST by Genoa
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