Posted on 02/02/2016 10:23:32 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Iowa pollsters' losses were Ted Cruz's gain Monday night, as even the most storied surveys of the Hawkeye State's electorate missed the Texas senator's surging momentum.
Cruz cruised to victory in the early-voting state's caucuses, easily beating bombastic billionaire Donald Trump 27.6% to 24.3%, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finishing a close third, with 23.1%.
But polls, even ones released just hours before voters headed to caucus-locations, showed Trump in the solid lead: A Quinnipiac University poll out Monday afternoon had Trump beating Cruz 31% to 24%, while a Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics survey out the day before had the outspoken mogul up 28% to 23%.
How did they get it so wrong?
(Excerpt) Read more at nydailynews.com ...
My daughter turned all polling calls over to her adolescent children. She and her friends did this for years because they strongly believe their political views are not for public consumption. It amused the children, who gleefully participated. That was an indication to me of the reliability of polling data.
No one has land-lines anymore. All cell phones with caller ID.
Just maybe the polls were manipulating the vote rather than predicting it.
45 percent were said to possibly change their mind at the end. That can screw up a big time poll. Also when Cruz told everyone that Carson was dropping out of the race, that easily could have gotten Cruz the 4 percent to win it. Not rocket science.
They predicted 300,000 people would caucus for the R’s. There was only 180,000. The question is why did they predict such a high number? The question is why do they want Trump to be the nominee?
Yes - driving the story to project a false perception of a “winner” to draw in support.
Like herding cattle.
Where’s the like button?
B-b-but polls are, you know, SCIENTIFIC! So scientific we should just skip actual votes./s
That is because too many of those dumb hay-seeds in Iowa don't understand Trump.
When NYS comes up those people are more sophisticated and educated and will appreciate Trump.
CNN reported Carson was heading back to FL.
That information was circulated by everyone.
“Simply put, polls are not information, polls are opinion swaying devices.”
Bingo! We have a winner!
I think a huge thing that no poll could predict was Trump supporters willingness to speak at the caucuses. There were several in which Trump couldn’t get anyone to speak for him.
Carson is too honest. He should never have said anything until after the results. If he had, he may have gotten 12 or 13 percent which would have changed everything. Oh well rookie mistake on his part. Lessons learned.
Trumps free ride on the media circus may be over.
Simply because they poll everyone, and not the people who actually vote.
A poll “may” give insite into what people may do, but unless ever voter is polled and every voter is honest, you will never know.
Amen.
And remember that there were several polls that said Cruz was the overwhelming second choice. When some of the lower tier candidates bail, I think Trump will not be happy with what happens.
Who predicted 300,000 GOP turnout in Iowa?
I heard something like 385,000 turnout counting both parties. Dems don’t release their head count immediately, so even that prediction might be low. Dems typically turn out twice as many for caucuses as Democrats.
EXACTLY
Iowa is FIRED
No more first in the nation for these whack jobs!
Cruz got 5,000 more goobers to vote for him than Trump, big deal, it’s a miracle ANY of these tards were smart enough to vote for him.
Trump leads in NH by 22 points.
Cruz is fresh out of goobers.
He also has a MAJOR eligibility issue.
And Marco Rubio is a degenerate twerp and liar.
Fraud on both the democrat and Republican sides?
I know how democrats do fraud... was a dem for many years. I have no clue how Republicans do it... but this feels like fraud was done on the Republican side too.
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