Posted on 01/31/2016 12:13:18 PM PST by drewh
What would it take for him to win the nomination?
In truth, not all that much.
Win Iowa on Monday and Trump will almost certainly cruise to victory in the New Hampshire primaries eight days later. If that comes to pass, he would start as a clear favorite to win South Carolina's primary on Feb. 20.
If Trump loses to Cruz in Iowa -- a prospect that remains possible -- then it remains to be seen whether his New Hampshire lead would hold. If it did, Trump would likely find himself in a two-man race with Cruz in South Carolina, Nevada and beyond.
If Trump were to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire, it's likely his candidacy would be effectively over. Where does he stand in the polls?
At the top. Trump leads by single digits in Iowa and double digits in New Hampshire and South Carolina, according to Real Clear Politics poll of polls in those three states.
Trump has led by wide margins in New Hampshire for the last six months, but his lead in the Iowa caucuses is relatively new. As recently as a month ago, Trump trailed Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the Hawkeye State. But, his attacks on Cruz's citizenship -- the Texan was born in Canada -- seem to have worked.
Nationally, Trump has led the field for months. Lately, that edge appears to be widening as Cruz fades slightly.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Nah, he isn’t serious.
He’s going to drop out any day now.
He’s going to fade anytime now......
The new Reuters poll shows missing the Fox debate helped Trump
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160124-20160129/type/day
Why speculate. We will have the answer shortly.
What are the odds that vegas is giving?
Can you bet on elections?
Is that legal?
“If Trump were to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s likely his candidacy would be effectively over”
Well Chris, do you say the same about Cruz?
If Yeb! had Trump’s numbers they would be calling him the presumptive nominee
not long now, one more day!
I’ve heard nothing but the debate on whether or not Trump’s poll numbers will equate to caucus goers in IA and primary voters elsewhere. The odd thing is, I’ve never heard anyone speculate on whether or not Bush’s 2 percent in IA will actually caucus for him, or whether Cruz’s supporters will actually turnout and caucus for him. It’s almost like a given that everyone’s supporters will turnout, but Trump’s.
I figure if hundreds and thousands of people can stand in long lines to attend his rallies, there is a good likelihood they’ll go to vote in a primary or caucus.
Yes.
And it won’t be close. The only question I really have is whether, by the time TX and UT come around, Cruz is still in. Cruz could win those two. But not if he’s been bludgeoned.
Iowa is the 30th most populous of the 57, I mean 50, states. There are about 3 million people living there (and, due to the way a caucus is set up, only living people can vote in Iowa, at least in the primaries.) New York and Florida each have nearly 7 times the number of citizens as Iowa does. Texas has 9 times as many and California, with a population of over 39 million, has a whopping 13 times as many people as Iowa does. Yet, as the first primary state, Iowa wields an inordinate amount of influence.
The ethanol subsidy, a minor blip in the scheme of things in America, is a major issue in Iowa, and has forced candidates to take sides in an attempt to woo voters. Major national issues, such as immigration, are a huge concern in California and Texas, yet only a minor issue to Iowans, at least insofar as it affects them on the state level.
I’m not saying that the primaries must necessarily be ordered according to state populations. I am saying that it seems grossly unfair that smaller states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, due to their chronological advantage, give their voters far more bang for their buck. Voters in the majority of states, both highly and sparsely populated, are effectively disenfranchised in the primary process because the momentum gained in the early-voting states has made the eventual nominee a foregone conclusion by the time they finally get their turn.
I would favor a random system, pulling ping pong balls out of a hopper, rather than having a candidate’s position on ethanol subsidies, for example, carry far more weight than it otherwise would.
“He’s peaking early.”
“He’s not a serious candidate.”
“He’s going to drop out and leave the party in turmoil.”
LOL
I don’t think so, but of the current contenders, including Trump, I don’t think any of them would win the general election.
I doubt that the candidate will be Hillary. I think she’ll have a “health crisis,” because the email Investigation is getting dangerously close to her husband and Sidney Blumenthal and the Clinton Foundation.
So I guess their candidate will be Bernie Sanders, unles Biden re-emerges. Personally, I think the other self-funding billionaire, Bloomberg, will come in and he will probably win it.
Combine that positive outcome with Cruz's performance which showed he's not the great debater he was claimed to be and the dark, threatening "shaming" mailing, and you've got a perfect storm.
Just a thought. Cruz was out front with Trump not there. Did Trump suspect that if wasn't there, Cruz wouldn't hold up to the pressure?
As a business leader Trump knows (has received training on it in every mgmt course he ever went to) that a persons essential, elemental personality emerges when under pressure.
Once discombobulated, everyone shows their true stripes.
Trump's bet was that nobody would like the real Ted Cruz. Trump won that bet.
I support Cruz, but I’m not delusional to the fact that Marco Rubio clearly did very well in the debate on Thursday, and he’s gonna be the major surprise on the GOP tomorrow night. As an aside, I think the biggest shock tomorrow night will be the easy victory Bernie has over Hillary. Why then did Cruz spend precious resources on a campaign ad specifically on Rubio? Doesn’t make sense going after the perceived third place finisher when your fire should be reserved for the guy in the lead. I told a couple of fellow Cruz supporters my opinion and they just laughed it off.
NO CHANCE Bloomberg could win, most people don’t live in New York, once Trump starts telling the masses that they won’t be able to have their BIG gulps and chips he will have a mutiny on his hands !!! LIVS and we ALL know who I am talking about, survive on their HUGE snacks and BIG gulps they won’t take a hankering to this guy at all!!!!!
Our billionaire against their billionaire. Game on!
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