POLITICAL OPERATIVE!!!!
POLITICAL OPERATIVE!!!!
POLITICAL OPERATIVE!!!!
Posted on 01/31/2016 12:04:23 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
The final Des Moines Register poll was just released, showing Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa with 28 percent, Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Marco Rubio with 15 percent. Hillary Clinton was ahead of Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, on the Democratic side. The political world - us included - was eagerly awaiting this survey, as Ann Selzer, who has conducted the Register's polls since the 1988 caucuses, has a very good track record. But just how predictive of the final results have Selzer's polls been? History suggests they're a good indicator of what will happen in Monday's Iowa caucuses, though there is room for a candidate or two to surprise.
I've gathered Selzer's final caucus polls for Republicans and Democrats since she started at the Register. For each race, I've calculated the difference between all candidates' polled percentage of support and their final share of the vote.
Selzer's final poll has correctly projected every single winner except for Republican Rick Santorum in 2012.
And the Register poll's successes haven't been limited to blowout races. She caught the late momentum for Democrat John Kerry in 2004 and famously called Barack Obama's victory in 2008.
Even when Selzer's final poll missed the winner in 2012, it still indicated the potential for Santorum to win. The survey was conducted over four days, and in addition to the topline, aggregate numbers, Selzer released day-by-day results. The final day of her last 2012 caucus poll showed Santorum within a percentage point of Mitt Romney. In fact, the average error per candidate of the last day of her final 2012 caucus poll was just 1.9 percentage points.
Indeed, what makes Selzer truly special isn't just that she calls winners but that her error rates are fairly low across all candidates. Her average error per candidate per year has been just 3.3 percentage points. That means that what a candidate receives in her poll is probably going to be pretty close to what he or she gets from voters.
That's not to say the Des Moines Register poll is perfect. It sometimes misses on a candidate by a lot. Selzer's final poll in 1988 missed Republican Pat Robertson's eventual vote share by just more than 10 percentage points. Same thing with Kerry in 2004.
Who might benefit from that type of miss this time around? History suggests there are two types of candidates who tend to outperform their polls. The first is a candidate who does well among Christian conservatives. Selzer's final polls on the Republican side in 1988, 1996 and 2012 all missed the candidate favored by Christian conservatives by at least 8.5 percentage points. That could be good news for Cruz. Secondly, candidates with late momentum, such as Kerry in 2004 and Santorum in 2012, also tend to beat their polls. That could be beneficial to Rubio, who seems to be gaining in some polls.
Could there also be a big error on the Democratic side? It's possible, but Selzer did particularly well in 2000, the last Democratic campaign with only a few candidates running. Fewer candidates means voters have an easier time settling on one candidate and reallocation of support becomes less of an issue.
Of course, we won't know how accurate Selzer's final poll is this year until Monday or the day after. It's worth remembering, however, that even the best pollsters - and Selzer is one of the best - aren't perfect.
The blizzard not predicted to happen until Tuesday now. Sorry
DMR has last poll 28-23. Other polls have it more. It’s not supposed to snow until after the caucus. Trump is leading with evangelicals...in Iowa. Ted’s campaign picked the wrong time to vote shame. Anything can happen of course, heck, Carson could win, but it certainly appears momentum is Trump’s way.
A big AMEN on coming together. I’ve hated watching Freepers savage one another over differences in candidates and their platforms. I mean, I will go after the candidates directly but I can’t appreciate the back and forth insults against Freepers for no good reason. I’ve seen people post unnecessary things to Cincinatus’ Wife and given the value and personal time she has devoted to sharing knowledge and information it just hurts that some folks can’t step back and think “let’s work through this” rather than push her onto the rails just before the train arrives. It pains me to think that we have some trolls infiltrating here who’s intent is to drive off our best and brightest over stupid little things that will vanish once the primaries are over.
I’ll be surprised if Trump is really ahead in Iowa. I have been thinking Crez would take it. Iowa being funny and all...
Thanks guys.
Your comments are very much appreciated.
The posters assertion that “group think” on politicians is, at best, misguided.
I have no idea who you have supported over time. I’m a single issue voter - immigration - which why I support Trump. I have no illusions beyond that. I didn’t feel your post was even remotely a problem worthy of such sustained harassment.
Criticism of politicians is a necessary step in the competitive process.
I like that folks offer impassioned pleas for their candidate - to a point. “zotting” of posters for their political beliefs is not a way to keep a robust forum and robust debate necessary for coming to some level of political consensus.
That was the biggest mistake of this forum in the past. One that it has yet to recover from - and may never recover from.
Much to her credit, CW has always advocated for her point of view in a civil manner...and I say this as someone who does not currently support her choice for President.
There’s no reason to call for her banishment.
This is a special day, indeed!
: )
Thank you both.
I would prefer it if you would not scour every left wing Demorat site and post whatever lameassed defamation they have against Trump. Certainly, if you were posting articles from those same sites, which were generally in opposition to conservatives or even the GOP and not specific to Trump, you would already be gone.
Really? Does their combined support even add up to 1% now?
I agree with you there. Immigration is an important issue to me. I want something to finally be done about it. That something has to include securing the border. Trump was the one who put immigration on table. He made it an issue. I like Cruz too. I have until the 16th to decide. I come to FR to help me to decide. I appreciate the efforts of FReepers who post these informative articles, even if I don’t agree with the article’s content. I don’t see this particular post as nuisance. It’s politics and this is FR.
POLITICAL OPERATIVE!!!!
POLITICAL OPERATIVE!!!!
POLITICAL OPERATIVE!!!!
Hopefully, you'll be gettin' on the Trump Express come Tuesday. <^..^>
Yes, Internet forums are so much more interesting when everyone walks in lockstep with each other, where there is one approved way of thinking and all others are excluded.
LibbyLu was completely unhinged, inarticulate and irrational. Tolerating behavior such as hers would cause FR to descend into a mudslingeing pit of hell.
She and those who support her antics will not be missed by me.
Gotcha. Like trump was just warning Cruz that the democrats were going to make an issue of his birthplace?
Well, until Trump determined he might himself get political mileage out making the claim.
Like threads that don’t interest, why not simply ignore posters posting stuff you don’t care for. When a poster on an anonymous Internet forum gets you ‘close to the end of my rope’, that’s God’s way of telling you that you need to take a break. JMO.
Mitt Romney, not Rick Santorum, won the 2012 Iowa caucus. Yes, the margin was only 8 votes.
I’m surprised that FiveThirtyEight got that wrong.
Very professional and informative analysis, thank you.
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