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Poll: Ted Cruz leads in Iowa; Donald Trump stays atop NH, SC
CBS ^ | 12/20/15 | Staff

Posted on 12/20/2015 7:42:33 AM PST by VinL

Donald Trump, the national front-runner, keeps his big lead in two of the three early states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, but now Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has moved past Trump into a lead of his own in Iowa.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio remains in double digits in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Governor Chris Christie has now shown upward movement in New Hampshire, doubling his support there in the last month.

The backdrop to all this is a mood of anxiety - both economic and personal security - pervading the GOP electorate in these early states. Nine in ten in all states feel the country is now a more dangerous and insecure place, including 95 percent of Iowa GOP voters who say that, and nine in ten feel the nation's economic system is one that hurts them instead of benefits them. Terrorism and national security are now specifically front-and-center on primary voters' minds: in Iowa, 61 percent say it is their top decision-making criteria for candidates, ahead of the economy; in New Hampshire, 66 percent cite terrorism and security ahead of 28 percent on the economy.

horseracegopiadecember.jpg

(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: canadian; cruz; elections; immigration; ineligible; trump; trumpanzees; trumpees; trumpwasright
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To: patq

Don’t forget the Iowa Caucus winner in 1980-George HW Bush.


81 posted on 12/20/2015 9:30:56 AM PST by Fresh Wind (Falcon 105)
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To: sitetest
Santorum = no money, no ground troops, no organization
TED CRUZ = MORE CASH ON HAND THAN ANYONE ELSE, BEST IN GROUND TROOPS, BEST IN ORGANIZATION.

Get it?

82 posted on 12/20/2015 9:31:04 AM PST by SmokingJoe ( .)
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To: Red Steel
And don’t think Cruz does not have a big ego - he does and it’s a big one.

Baloney. I met and campaigned for Cruz in his senatorial bid, and can honestly say the man puts his love of conservative values above himself.

Say..... versus Trump? Who is just in it for himself. And winning. I could give you innumerable examples, but I figure you know your candidate pretty well.

83 posted on 12/20/2015 9:36:22 AM PST by catfish1957 (I display the Confederate Battle Flag with pride in honor of my bravNL skit.e ancestors who fought w)
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To: SmokingJoe

And Romney was actually initially declared the winner, thus deflating Santorum’s win.


84 posted on 12/20/2015 9:36:52 AM PST by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: JoSixChip

Am I going to believe you or believe what every media outlet is saying:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubios-lousy-ground-game-in-iowa-will-probably-cost-him-votes


85 posted on 12/20/2015 9:37:26 AM PST by SmokingJoe ( .)
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To: Red Steel
f Cruz wins in Iowa, and it’s very iffy, he will win by the skin of his teeth.

Not even close. Trump is gonna get clobbered but good

86 posted on 12/20/2015 9:40:34 AM PST by SmokingJoe ( .)
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To: catfish1957

I don’t thinks so. Cruz has got one, He doesn’t wear it on his sleeve like Trump, but it is big.


87 posted on 12/20/2015 9:41:01 AM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: SmokingJoe
Not even close. Trump is gonna get clobbered but good

But good?

Here's the reality... This is what it looks like consistently across the United States that seems to get ignored.

Trump +27% over Cruz.

"2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Monmouth - Trump 41, Cruz 14, Rubio 10, Carson 9, Bush 3, Christie 2, Paul 2, Fiorina 2, Kasich 3, Huckabee 2, Santorum 0, Graham 1, Pataki 1 Trump +27"

88 posted on 12/20/2015 9:44:41 AM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: parksstp

The way Yankees vote in NH has absolutely no bearing on the way Southerners vote. Did Romney win SC? Hell, no, inspite of RINO Nikki Haley’s endorsement. Winning Iowa also has no bearing on the who’ll be the nominee. Caucus states are terrible unpredictable, especially Iowa and it usually comes down on who can sound a like a preacher the best. That’s why Cruz will probably win it, but HN is another story. I can see Christie coming in second in NH. Don’t want to see it, but it could happen.


89 posted on 12/20/2015 9:52:06 AM PST by NKP_Vet (In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle,stand like a rock ~ T, Jefferson)
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To: VinL

6.9 POINT MARGIN OF ERROR!! This is a desperation psy-ops poll behind the CBS label it’s another Register Poll and it actually shows Cruz lost a point since their last poll. A PPP poll has Trump + 3 which fits a 6.9% margin of Error.
Turn off the alarm bells; shut off the strobe lights.


90 posted on 12/20/2015 9:54:05 AM PST by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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National Polling Data

Poll Date
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Carson
Bush
Christie
Paul
Fiorina
Kasich
Huckabee
Santorum
Graham
Pataki
Spread
RCP Average 12/2 - 12/17 34.4 17.1 12.3 10.0 4.6 3.1 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 Trump +17.3
FOX NewsFOX News 12/16 - 12/17 39 18 11 9 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 Trump +21
PPP (D)PPP (D) 12/16 - 12/17 34 18 13 6 7 5 2 4 2 4 1 1 0 Trump +16
ABC News/Wash PostABC/WP 12/10 - 12/13 38 15 12 12 5 4 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 Trump +23
MonmouthMonmouth 12/10 - 12/13 41 14 10 9 3 2 2 2 3 2 0 1 1 Trump +27
NBC/WSJNBC/WSJ 12/6 - 12/9 27 22 15 11 7 3 2 5 2 3 -- -- -- Trump +5
CBS/NY TimesCBS/NYT 12/4 - 12/8 35 16 9 13 3 3 4 1 3 3 0 0 0 Trump +19
USA Today/SuffolkUSA Today 12/2 - 12/6 27 17 16 10 4 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 Trump +10

Iowa Polling Data

Poll Date
Cruz
Trump
Rubio
Carson
Bush
Paul
Fiorina
Huckabee
Christie
Kasich
Santorum
Pataki
Graham
Spread
RCP Average 12/4 - 12/17 30.2 26.2 12.3 10.0 5.2 3.0 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 Cruz +4.0
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17 40 31 12 6 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 Cruz +9
PPP (D)PPP (D) 12/10 - 12/13 25 28 14 10 7 2 3 3 3 2 1 0 1 Trump +3
DMR/BloombergDMR/Bloomberg 12/7 - 12/10 31 21 10 13 6 3 1 3 3 2 1 0 0 Cruz +10
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac 12/4 - 12/13 27 28 14 10 5 4 3 1 3 1 0 0 0 Trump +1
FOX NewsFOX News 12/7 - 12/10 28 26 13 10 5 5 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 Cruz +2
Loras CollegeLoras 12/7 - 12/10 30 23 11 11 6 2 3 2 0 1 1 -- 0 Cruz +7

91 posted on 12/20/2015 9:58:08 AM PST by deport
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To: Red Steel
Chuckle!
Nice trick you got going there. I have my own magic trick too:

W3Schools.com

And of course we were talkng about Iowa as you well knew. I repeat, Cruz will CRUSH Trump in Iowa.

92 posted on 12/20/2015 10:06:18 AM PST by SmokingJoe ( .)
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To: VinL

By far the thing that made me smile the most in those polls?

Goober Graham at 1% .... In South Carolina!

God is good.

Hank


93 posted on 12/20/2015 10:08:57 AM PST by County Agent Hank Kimball (Eat Hooterville Rutabagas!)
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To: SmokingJoe

LoL. It won’t be a ‘crush’; it could be an eke.


94 posted on 12/20/2015 10:09:38 AM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: jmaroneps37
it’s another Register Poll and it actually shows Cruz lost a point since their last poll.

Cruz had 41% in their last poll?
On what planet was that?

95 posted on 12/20/2015 10:09:54 AM PST by SmokingJoe ( .)
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To: Fresh Wind; patq
George W. Bush won Iowa in 2000 by 10 points with the backing of evangelical Christian voters over second place finisher Steve Forbes (another businessman). Bush lost NH by a large margin of 18 points (McCain won big in NH in 2000). George W. Bush went on to become the GOP nominee in 2000 and was the eventual winner in the general election.

2016 could be a repeat of the outcome in 2000, especially since there is greater importance early in the primaries on southern states on March 1 (SEC primaries) where Cruz has great organization and is expected to do well.

96 posted on 12/20/2015 10:10:13 AM PST by Unmarked Package
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To: Red Steel
CRUSH, mate. The crazy Trumpbots are going to have exploding heads. Chuckle!
97 posted on 12/20/2015 10:11:49 AM PST by SmokingJoe ( .)
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To: Unmarked Package

A big difference. Bush was still the favorite in most states, Cruz is the big underdog everywhere else. The bandwagon effect isn’t going to work for Cruz even with the liberal media’s help.


98 posted on 12/20/2015 10:13:35 AM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: SmokingJoe

You got a bad case of fantasy.


99 posted on 12/20/2015 10:14:45 AM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: Red Steel

Fantasy world = you
Grounded in reality = me

Clear enough for you?


100 posted on 12/20/2015 10:20:28 AM PST by SmokingJoe ( .)
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