NATO does not have to do anything. Russia is cutting off its nose to spite its face, if it cuts off all economic activity. In 2014, according to Turkish foreign trade statistics, exports to Russia were worth $5.9 billion while imports from Russia were worth $25.2 billion.
As of 2012 the oil-and-gas sector accounted for 16% of the GDP, 52% of federal budget revenues and over 70% of total exports. The Russian economy is contracting due to sanctions and declining oil prices. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its economic forecast for Russia as it projects recession of 3.8% in GDP for 2015 and of 0.6% for 2016.
I doubt that Russia will scrap the deal the build a new oil pipeline thru Turkey to reach Western Europe or its plans to build a nuclear power plant in Turkey. There will be lots of bluster with little impact.
If Putin continues his war in Ukraine and a new one in Syria, he will be the one in trouble. The Russians can't afford it. The corrupt KGB punk is stealing huge amounts of money, no doubt in a Swiss bank account.
It is all grand standing and Turkey has all but conceded.
Apology,public, written by Friday from Turkey.
Compensation to pilots family and Russia for their jet.
Obama already told Erdogan that he wasn’t going to help him.France told them the same.
All you say is well and good.
But numbers or percentages can be deceiving. Turkey is overall only one single big trading partner of Russia, and the reverse is true as well. In fact, overall, the difference between imports and exports as far as both Turkey and Russia’s top 10 trading partners are concerned is only just about 1.5% strictly between Russia and Turkey, themselves.
Moreover, it is Sector-specific.
Sanctions, in tourism won’t impact Russia as much as it will impact Turkey. In agriculture and food as well, Russia can replace its Turkish imports quite easily. Even in Turkish construction sector which fairly well dominates in Russia, Russian companies can easily take over Turks.
The mutually lucrative trade between Turkey and Russia is in Energy sector, natural gas, crude, refined products, coal, plus the nuclear plant Russia is building in Turkey. It can hurt them both.
In other sectors like media, financial services, Turkish economy is fairly well Russian owned.
All in all, it depends how sanctions are imposed. But this tit for tat I agree won’t go too far. There are mutual dependencies, hence the fact that they had mutual agreement to allow travel without pre-entry visa requirements or restrictions.
One of the biggest aces up Turkey’s sleeve and they know it too, is they want to have their cake and eat it too. They got NATO protection by being in NATO; yet they have lucrative trade deals with Russia at the same time. Milking both sides as they can. Not to mention that Erdogan is an Islamist, playing all sides and against each other when it suits him.