Posted on 11/21/2015 10:08:37 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
A new national NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll finds that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 100% has moved up 8% as Ben Carson dropped 8% leaving them tied for second place at 18%. Donald Trump, who was tied for the lead with Carson at 26% in the last NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll, is now in the lead at 28%. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 94% also moved up 2%, to 11%, and remains in fourth place. The rest of the Republican candidates remain at 4% or less. The two point moves by Trump and Rubio fall within the poll’s 2.9% margin of error.
Other interesting findings from new the NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll include:
â—¾Carson is losing his support among evangelicals. He is now backed by just 25% of this group while Trump and Cruz have 23% and 22% respectively.
â—¾Cruz now has the highest level of support among those who identify as very Conservative, with 40%, overtaking both Carson and Trump.
â—¾Carson, Cruz, Rubio and Trump receive nearly equal levels of support among those with college degrees.
The upward movement of Cruz could be attributed to his organizational efforts with politically active church goers. And some credit should surely go to his response to the Paris terror attack we reported on here and here.
Carson’s fall, or as Trump calls it “free fall,†is the result of questions about Carson’s grasp of foreign policy. Most, 71%, of the Republican insiders surveyed this week by The POLITICO Caucus said Carson was the most vulnerable Republican presidential candidate on foreign policy — far more than any other candidate.
Don’t take this new poll too seriously. There are still more than two months before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. That’s a very long time at this stage of a presidential campaign.
Here he comes!
Come the result of the Iowa caucus so many will be surprised when Cruz takes the whole show, and the surprise will continue throughout remaining caucuses, no surprise to me and his avid supporters, he is a clear and present danger to the entire progressive liberal democrat/rino communist uni-party.
As far as the Poll’s he’s content with where he is at and will remain so right up until he blasts the competition just like he did in his Senate campaign, just laid back no fretting or panic, steady as you go always consistent.
Not if you use registered and likely primary voters.
[Carson is losing his support among evangelicals.]
As more and more disturbing articles come out about CARSON’s views and statements, his once solid base of Evangelicals is eroding and shifting to TED CRUZ!!!
Hard to keep from swerving into the dumbbell.
I rather doubt hit jobs by the media have that much influence on Dr. Carson’s supporters. People so easily manipulated wouldn’t gravitate toward Dr. Carson in the first place.
I suspect the answer is more likely found in an another article on this site (that I found after posting my question of the reason), is one of national defense or ISIS or some more in-depth concern.
I think that Reuters is an average of other polls. It is slow to move.
Well, yeah.
I think Reuters is actually a tracking poll. It has been consistent with the others only as far as Trump’s numbers.
Much as I HATE to direct anyone to HuffPo, they have an outstanding polling tool that’s way better than using the RealClearPolitics average, which selects only a very few and God only knows how they select them.
It’s here: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary
It tracks every conceivable poll out there, and has a tool that lets you select/deselect the date range, voting filters (likely voters, all adults, registered voters), pollsters, etc.
I only like polls with Likely Voter or at least Registered Voter Screens. “All Adult” polls are useless.
There have been 7 polls in the last month with likely or registered voter screens. The average of those 7 polls is:
Trump 27.7%
Carson 18.8%
Cruz 11.9%
Rubio 11.9%
Jeb! 5.5%
Carly 3.2%
Huckabee 3.1%
Christie 3.0%
Kasich 2.4%
Paul 2.4%
Looks about right to me. Trump is holding steady. Carson is slipping. Cruz and Rubio are continuing a long, slow increase.
It’s going to be a 3 man race: Trump, Cruz and Rubio.
Hank
There is a lady that I see at church who is a Carson fan. Though she likes Cruz too.
What amazes me with this whole poll thing is i dont know a soul that has Carson as their 1st pick...NOT ONE!!!....is there anyone here on FR that picks Carson 1st??????
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Carson dropped from number three on my list down to about number six after his comments on pyramids/Joseph/grain. That was on the same level as the Hank Johnson/Guam tipping comment.
Johnson was rightly ridiculed for his comment. Carson does not get a pass.
No one on FR that I’ve seen. I do know a lot of people outside of FR like him. A lot. I don’t think the polls have been overly (just partially) cooked.
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A lot of people like his easy going, laid back manner of speaking. For me it has a sedative effect, so much so that I’m asleep before he finishes his comment.
Another one who had a similar effect on me, although not quite the same style as Carson, was Henry Kissinger.
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