Posted on 11/08/2015 3:41:14 PM PST by Kaslin
In order to make an accurate prediction, a pollster must take a representative sample of the population of those who will vote in the election, which seems like a difficult thing to do. How do you sample an unknown population? And how do you account for the tendency for more conservative people to not answer the phone when we don’t recognize the number? Since caller ID is universal now, wonder if that is skewing the results? If I do accidentally answer a survey call, I make it a point to lie anyway.
Most of the polls I read about seem like push polls - designed to influence rather than to predict - so I guess the sample doesn’t matter much.
True, but he badly missed BR, Israel, and I don’t think he did well in 2014 midterms-—but am happy to be corrected on that.
Nobody was making this complaint 10-12 years ago when the pollsters were doing better.
[trad_anglican] That's assuming, of course, it was really intended to analyze vs. influence. That's a pretty big - and naive - assumption.
I think we have a winner!
It may be that the Election Day "inaccuracy" is nothing more than the exposure of busy pollster fingers by the outcome.
Polling would have no effect if the people were acting as citizens should instead of like a bunch of political bookies.
Tagline ....
We have reached the point where the polls now say more about the pollsters than they do about the candidates.
Indeed.
A little naive aren’t we there Jonah? The Democrat controlled media uses “polls” to justify the stories they have written ahead of time. This is true unless the poll proves them wrong then they refuse to quote their own poll. Doesn’t this sound familiar Jonah?
Polls are the bought and paid for blaring, firewworks shooting bandwagons for all the weak minded, 2 dimensional thinking “me-too” raccoon’s that are being manipulated. Unfortunately it works because so many are lazy, weak-minded, 2-dimensional thinkers where critical thinking and common sense are a foreign language and practice.
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