Posted on 09/30/2015 4:52:38 AM PDT by dirtboy
Just upgraded at 8am advisory.
Oh great. Another uninvited illegal invader coming to our shores......
Models are starting to come into agreement that Christie will get a chance for another Bromance moment with Idi Obama.
Best Model is to find out where Jim Cantore has reservations.
Isn’t that the truth!
The current NHC track is a compromise of two possible tracks....and the one that probably has the less likely chance of occurring. It’s either headed to NC/VA or out to sea (AKA the ECMWF). Tricky one to figure out.
I think they are giving some deference to the Euro model since it did such a good job with Sandy - but I don’t see how this goes so far east with such a large blocking high to the north. The Euro sees a coastal low developing to kick Joaquin to the east.
Funny...I was just about to type the same thing...lol.
I listened to the conference call the NHC does and they are certainly giving deference to the Euro....but as you pointed out (which is what I was about to post), the EURO is putting some huge coastal low off the SE US....which IMO isn't going to happen. If you split the difference (which is what the ensembles are doing) then the EURO is still east of the GFS but it's much closer to the US. I just dont see two lows (AKA the EURO) off the US. If you look at it and then find a happy medium...then Joaquin is sitting SSE of Hatteras by Sunday.
So in essence the EURO is a slower GFS solution given a longer time spinning near the Bahamas with a hit on the mid atlantic by Sunday evening or so.
This one reply is to all the superior PhDs that have spoken from Mt. Sinai. I own a property in Ocean City, MD., although I am not there now. I have been checking everything possible to get a bead on the storm’s direction. I drew my conclusion from:
A. Its current track is SW.
B. The local TV weather departments, the last I checked, are NOT hyping the storm as coming up the coast within the next 5 days. Rain, yes. Some wind, yes. Hurricaine, no.
If it turns out that y’all are right and I’m wrong, don’t celebrate too much, ‘cause you ain’t gettin’ no virgin. I’ve been wrong so many times in my days, it’s exhausting to think about it.
OTOH, I’ve seen so many forecasts turn out to be fizzles that they’re almost legend. I guess what we have here is a Mexican standoff. So all I can do is hide and watch and hope everyone comes through it unscathed.
LOL! I guess that settles the argument.
Get over yourself. We showed with historical storm tracks that your claim about hurricanes not making 90+ degree turns was dead wrong yet you persist in your ignorance. If you pay attention to your local TV forecasters, they will be saying there is a chance of local impact, but no certainty - which is why you see cones of uncertainty on the NHC forecast maps that get larger with each passing day. That is the nature of hurricane forecasting - pay attention to data, models and historical analogs, instead of pulling nonsense out of one's arse the way you have on this thread.
How long before the media starts hyping ‘Superstorm Joaquin: the Sequel’? Glad I do not have cable...
Jeanne was powerful!! Good thing it was a fast mover. It hit 2 weeks after (before?) Francis and I thought we were all headed to Oz.
The Elena track in the Gulf was pretty wild. (1985)
And yes, a cold front is going to steer this ‘cane north and then the front stalls and may go stationary. NC and VA may be in for a good amount of rain.
Sandy ended up living up to the hype. Hopefully the Euro model is right and Joaquin goes out to sea, because the mid Atlantic and New England are already going to have saturated ground from the heavy rains this week.
All the current track means is it’s the CURRENT track.
My concern is the farther west this goes, the greater the risk for the northern SC/mid NC coast, rather than further up.
“Leaving Fri evening for a week on the Outer Banks. Haven’t had a vacation in 5 years. Me and Joaquin better not have a problem”
One of these hurricanes is going to someday take out the Outer Banks. And then the eco-system on NC will really change.
I would probably consider other plans and I would think if a hotel, that they would cancel on you.
Joaquin won’t have a problem but there are only so many ways to get off the OBX.
A traffic mess may be in your future. You may want to stay inland until Monday.
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