Posted on 09/23/2015 5:15:19 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Scott Walker’s exit from the White House race is disrupting the GOP contest, and many observers believe Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) will be the biggest beneficiary.
Rubio and Walker were seen at the outset of the race as the candidates with the best shot at winning over the GOP’s conservative grassroots and then running strong in the general election.
But with the Wisconsin governor now out of the mix, suddenly a new group of supporters — and big-money donors — are up for grabs.
Rubio had already been showing signs of new strength in the wake of the second GOP debate last week, with a poll from CNN/ORC putting him at 11 percent support nationally — good enough for fourth place and a big improvement over the 3 percent he had registered in the same poll just two weeks before.
“Rubio is not putting himself front and center but he is ensuring that at each Republican debate he is well noticed as competent and well-studied,” said GOP consultant Ron Bonjean. “He is showing consistency with those performances.”
Another Republican strategist, David Payne, suggested that Rubio’s presence and demeanor make him primed to take advantage of Walker’s sudden departure.
“I think the folks who were supporting, or were considering supporting [Walker], will be looking for someone with poise and polish,” Payne said. “Marco Rubio has a lot of that poise and stylistic excellence, and is starting to capitalize on this moment.”
Still, the impact of Walker’s absence is hard to predict. The battle for the support of establishment Republicans, in particular, seems fluid.
Rubio’s polling bump comes at a time when former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the erstwhile frontrunner, appears stuck in neutral.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, another establishment contender, is performing reasonably strongly in New Hampshire but is mired in low single digits nationwide.
And while New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was widely seen as having had a good night in the debate, it remains an open question whether his campaign can get out of the doldrums.
Any one of those candidates is also confronted with the reality that they need to overtake the trio of “outsiders” in the race: Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, none of whom has ever held elected office. Those three together command the support of 53 percent of GOP primary voters, according to the CNN/ORC poll.
Walker drew less than 1 percent support in that same poll, a finding that might well have helped push him from the race. That raises the question of how much — or how little — his departure will matter.
“When you are an asterisk in the polls that is not exactly a surge that is going to move to some other candidate,” said Tobe Berkovitz, a Boston University professor who specializes in political communications.
But the effect of the Wisconsin governor’s decision could depend on where his donors, staff and activists go. The campaigns of Bush, Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas all announced within 24 hours that some Walker supporters had come over to their camps.
Insiders suggest that the importance of organizational strength is often overlooked.
“The clear and present opportunity is with organizational folks, the folks who are precinct captains, chairman of relevant committees, donors and the like,” said Michael Steele, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee.
“A lot of people lose sight of what a presidential contest is all about,” Steele added. “It’s not about being the most ‘outside,’ it’s about organization. [There are] all these bright shining objects, whether it’s Donald Trump or Ben Carson, but meanwhile the Bush campaign, the Kasich campaign have been building up a network because they know this field is going to be whittled.”
Steele argued that Bush’s campaign machine makes him a formidable presence, whose chances are if anything understated because of media coverage of his stumbles.
Others suggested that Bush’s last name and his status as the early favorite have put a target on his back.
“If you want to say Donald Trump is held to the lowest standard, Bush is held to the highest standard,” Berkovitz said.
Even if that is so, however, many Republicans are underwhelmed by the former Florida governor’s performance to date.
“In the two debates that have occurred already, we’ve observed him showing stature and stability but not a lot of enthusiasm and action,” Payne said. “There is just sort of a lack of action.”
Many members of the GOP establishment are worried. The outsiders remain strong, they note, and there is no clear mainstream figure who appears ready to slay them.
“Every [establishment] candidate has assets but also liabilities,” said one such strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly.
“Rubio has been outstanding with his public speaking but lacks experience. Jeb has got mixed reviews. Kasich is more on the liberal end of the Republican spectrum and he runs the danger of becoming the Jon Huntsman of the pack.
“There is no silver bullet here.”
Ted Cruz gave this speech at an anti jihad conference back in February. 29 minutes of absolute crystal clarity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlKh9E_x7vg
Rubio is more of the same
He is NOT a conservative
God please help steer us away from this guy. Rubio is a George W Bush Clone - a “compassionate conservative” in TV interviews and a big spending NeoCon the rest of the time.
CW, you were one of the first people I thought of when the news broke.
In the last election, you and I were on the same page supporting Rick Perry. I so appreciated your posts at that time and I remember thinking what loyalty you had to do the research and offer the “facts” not just opinions. This time I am supporting Cruz, but again, you are working so hard for your choice. You did it all with dignity and professionalism. There’s no denying Walker is a good man and did a great deal of hard work for his state.
You did a great deal of hard work for him, and I admire that.
Thank you Cripplecreek.
Cruz is a good man; I’d like to see in on the Supreme Court.
Sadly, the remaining candidates will be systematically picked off (or will stay in until their work to divide the vote has kept Jeb in the running - since he has the $$$$$ to hold on during the picking off, winnowing process).
It’s the battle of the Rush Limbaughs (scores to settle - we can’t depend on the purity crowd base voters) against the entrenched RNC-GOP-e .
Rush L., J. Lord and the rest have decided that they will pick our candidate for us. They believe that they can prop up, clean up after and cheer lead for The Donald (let the others die on the vine) and eventually guide Trump.
How very patronizing and dictatorial of them.
Walker’s capitulation and the reasons for it aside, I find nothing about Rubio for which to vote. The man is a walking,talking heartbeat away from Amnesty and full citizenship for illegals. Anything else beyond this he has to say I don’t want or need to hear.
Last week was sooo carly
I’ve been hard on Walker but I never really got into all of the things I didn’t like about him, primarily because I think we all should be more concerned about stopping Jeb Bush from getting the nomination. I’d have much preferred to let the true discourse between candidates and the support they could garner rule the outcome.
However, in Walker’s closing speech this self sacrifice to “clear the field” so that others can take down [Trump, ostensibly] was a total bad faith move. It confirms why I never really got on board with him.
I know Trump has a lot of problems and a LOT of haters out there, but to me they pale in comparison of what a Jeb Bush as nominee, or even what a Rubio as nominee would be. These two - because of money (first) and GOPe support (second); the others in the race really don’t matter.
So if the plan now is to trash Trump, then I’d suggest you reread “Go Trump, Go” again.
As an aside, I don’t listen to Rush any more.
I’m with odawg!! I support Trump, not because he is a pure candidate (it’s not heaven down here folks) but because we have to get the Marxists out of DC. It is imperative. I am not a lowi-information voter, nor is my husband, a PhD scientist.
Trump came out swinging against Global Warming. He supports the Second Amendment. He blows PC out of the water. He refuses to apologize and grovel every time ‘the Great Moralists’ of the elite demand it. I’m in.
You don't know that. Since his mantra is to make America Great Again, why would he keep steering the ship in the same direction?
He wants to be a successful president in the mold of Ronald Reagan. Why would he stay on course to be the worst president in the mold of Obama?
If Trump gets the nomination he will have a mandate to turn the country around.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Just out of curiosity, what do you have against Rubio?
“Suggestions as to why Walker supporters should now pick up Rubio’s mantle. “
But if you believe the latest polls, Walker doesn’t have any significant supporters for anyone to pick up. And that goes for about six of the remaining candidates. With them each polling from 0 to 2% they have nothing to contribute to the higher ups. If one of the 5%er’s drops out, you will have some movement somewhere else, but all these GOPe spoilers are not in because they have a chance in hell of winning, they’re only there so they can continue to shoot off their collective mouths about how bad the non-politicians are. Until a Carson, Fiorina, or Boosh drops out, any movement will be only by those candidate’s mistakes.
And somehow getting .5% of the primary voters to move to the Rube is really going to help the Rube.
I will never vote for anyone unwilling to uphold the rule of law.
Rubberio showed us how flexible he is when he schemed with Schumer against the citizens.
NO AMNESTY PIMPS !
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