Posted on 09/14/2015 5:17:58 PM PDT by markomalley
Climate-change followers will know there hasn't been any global warming since around the turn of the century. Observers had been expecting that to change, perhaps from this year, but now a fresh report from the British weather bureau suggests it may be business as no-warming usual for a while yet.
In a nutshell the UK Met Office climatologists say that a long-expected El Nino is finally starting in the Pacific Ocean, which will probably cause significant warming. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), another ocean mechanism in the Pacific, also looks likely to heat the planet up from this point.
But, no doubt upsettingly for people who may be desperate for a return to a warming world (for instance the workforce at the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, dependent on global warming for its raison d'être) there's a third and very powerful factor to consider: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
The AMO has actually been heating the world up since the mid-1990s, though not strongly enough to raise temperatures, but now it looks set to swing into a negative phase and cool the planet off, probably for a long time, as AMO phases typically last several decades. The Met Office's new report (pdf), just out today, has this to say about the AMO:
The current warm phase is now 20 years long and historical precedent suggests a return to relatively cool conditions could occur within a few years ... Observational and model estimates further suggest AMO shifts have an effect on global mean near-surface temperatures of about 0.1°C. A rapid AMO decline could therefore maintain the current slowdown in global warming ...
The Met Office doesn't care for phrases such as "hiatus" or even "pause" to describe the absence of global warming for the last fifteen years or so: it describes the flat temperatures as a "slowdown".
But it's all the same thing. One should note that the Met Office report is strongly hedged – its title even ends in a question mark, in the style of headlines-to-which-the-answer-is-no.
But it isn't just the Met Office that believes the AMO may be headed into a cold spell. Scientists studying Atlantic hurricanes have noted that these massive storms have been mostly less common and less powerful in recent years, and the suggestion is that this trend may be set to continue, with the underlying mechanism being a switch in the AMO to a negative phase.
Meanwhile, it appears quite possible that 2015 will be a record warm year globally – though not in Europe or America. However, as NASA climate chief Gavin Schmidt pointed out in 2013, "one more year of numbers isn't in itself significant".
Just as it took quite a few years before the hiatus could be said to be ongoing, it will require several years of climbing temperatures before it can be said to be over.
Those climbing temperatures may be imminent - but, if the AMO plunges into a strong negative cycle, they just may not be, either. ®
Then the pause will be over soon. The Met-Office is a source of perfect mis-information.
I bought a 2nd 4wd truck last week.
My bet is on frigid (although $1.95 gas makes it more fun too)
There was recently a paper stating the “hiatus” didn’t exist. The Globull warming hucksters should get their stories straight.
It’s more likely that the trend to cold will continue and even accelerate. This interglacial period is about due to end.
How is this caused by SUVs?
“The AMO has actually been heating the world up since the mid-1990s, though not strongly enough to raise temperatures....”
Best line in the article.
El Nino does NOT create heat. The effect redistributes warmer waters into colder areas. Yes El Nino may cause significant warming in specific areas, but that is at the expense of cooler waters elsewhere.
It is a zero-sum game. I thought that the UK Met office knew and understood the effects of El Nino!
Global Warming causes Global Cooling. It must be stopped.
Joe Bastardi talks about this weekly on his Saturday update. Nothing new to us who follow Joe.
Question. How long must the so-called “hiatus” of NO GLOBAL WARMING go on before “scientists” have to admit there’s no such thing as global warming caused by CO2 in the atmosphere?
Do not worry. Global climate change will continue until owebama finishes off the US economy.
If not, they are all unreliable.
These models that these purported “scientists” use must be based on their obvious mental illness. They are merely anti-science political idiots.
Just until they can think up the next big scam against the taxpayers and consumers.
How is this caused by SUVs?
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"When a butterfly flaps its wings in one part of the world it can cause a hurricane in another part of the world." -- Author Unknown
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Maybe them SUVs, set up such vortexes that even the waves and deeps are affected....
I had the same thought - if they know that ocean currents cause significant changes, how do the back up the crap they keep trying to feed us....
This is because global warming feeds into global cooling. It was recently discovered. But we’ll still need to tax carbon emissions because you’re racist.
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