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How to Lose a Winnable Election
American Spectator ^ | 8/31/2015 | David Catron

Posted on 08/31/2015 5:26:20 AM PDT by rootin tootin

Here’s some electoral history that Donald Trump’s supporters should consider before voting in their GOP primaries: Since 1972, no Republican presidential candidate has won a general election with less than 30 percent of the Hispanic vote. Nixon, Reagan, and both Bushes received between 30 and 40 percent in their successful presidential bids. All of the GOP losers from 1976 through 2012 received between 24 and 27 percent of the Hispanic vote. This includes George H. W. Bush, who lost in 1992 after his percentage eroded to 25 percent from the 30 percent he garnered in his successful 1988 campaign.

It’s probably not necessary, as one GOP pollster has claimed, for the 2016 Republican nominee to win 40 percent of the Hispanic vote to reach the White House. It is, however, obvious that the nominee will have to do far better than the 27 percent received by Mitt Romney. And that’s never going to happen if the Republican nominee advocates deporting 11 million Hispanics, including many who were born here, while vowing to eliminate birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment. In other words, if the GOP is myopic enough to nominate Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton will be the next president.

(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; agitprop; davidcatron; demagogicparty; election; election2016; hillary; hispanics; memebuilding; newyork; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; paultardation; paultardnoisemachine; randpaulnoisemachine; randsconcerntrolls; trump
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To: rootin tootin

Bla bla bla


21 posted on 08/31/2015 5:41:14 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: rootin tootin

Forget about it GOPe we are NOT voting for your progressive Republicans again! I’m sorry but you are just going to have to find another group to exploit beside the illegal aliens.


22 posted on 08/31/2015 5:41:36 AM PDT by southernerwithanattitude (New and Improved Redneck!)
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To: rootin tootin
Under this thesis, the GOPe candidate would need to snuggle up to Jorge Ramos and allow him to pass final judgment on the nominee.
23 posted on 08/31/2015 5:41:57 AM PDT by Awgie (truth is always stranger than fiction)
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To: wastoute

They don’t want to learn it because they hate conservatives. That like trying to be a critic of anything you hate...it’s all bad...no intelligence involved.


24 posted on 08/31/2015 5:42:46 AM PDT by gr8eman (Don't waste your energy trying to understand commies. Use it to defeat them!)
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To: Awgie

Exactly what these people believe. We have to play nice and appease them so they’ll like us, is what they think. It defies logic and common sense, but that’s the loser GOPe.


25 posted on 08/31/2015 5:44:20 AM PDT by gr8eman (Don't waste your energy trying to understand commies. Use it to defeat them!)
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To: DesertRhino
#13 you got it exactly right. The GOPe is saying we have to kiss the ring of Jorge Ramos to be granted entry to the promised land.
26 posted on 08/31/2015 5:45:21 AM PDT by Awgie (truth is always stranger than fiction)
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To: rootin tootin

Bull. Trump will get his share of LEGAL hispanic votes...but he’s building a grass roots coalition that will resemble Reagan’s ‘Reagan Democrat’ movement. He will have WHITE voters from across the spectrum, people who, no matter which party they signed up for, are sick and tired of seeing America lose and who will vote to make America great again! There’s no other candidate, IMHO, who can run under that mantle. The rest of them are either completely complicit in tearing this country down, and American KNOW that! Or they’re too weak to stop the decline.


27 posted on 08/31/2015 5:50:16 AM PDT by pgkdan (But as for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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To: rootin tootin
Since 1972, no Republican presidential candidate has won a general election with less than 30 percent of the Hispanic vote. Ten elections:

Ford
Reagan
Reagan
Bush the Elder
Bush the Elder
Dole
Bush the Younger
Bush the Younger
McCain
Romney



Out of those. Ford ('76) was the only one who MIGHT have won the election with a bigger portion of the Hispanic vote. The other four losses were because the candidates stunk &/or ran poor campaigns.

Bill James' style polling analysis does not work well with such a small sample pool.

It also doesn't help when the dishonest numbers peddler gets to pick his starting point. Why '76? Because Nixon won twice with little Hispanic support, and Reagan won big because he won (or was close) on everything except the black vote.
28 posted on 08/31/2015 5:52:16 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics)
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To: rootin tootin

This election will be won by whichever side gets their base enthused enough to show up. Period.


29 posted on 08/31/2015 5:52:51 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (You don't notice it's a police state until the police come for you.)
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To: rootin tootin

Have some pompous jackass enter the race, steal all the media attention, and convince a lot of fools that he is their savior?


30 posted on 08/31/2015 5:54:42 AM PDT by SoothingDave
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To: wastoute

“Been shown repeatedly that Mittens would not have won with 70% of the “Hispanic vote”. What killed him was the millions of conservatives who stayed home. The lesson the GOPee doesn’t want to learn.”

BTTT


31 posted on 08/31/2015 5:54:48 AM PDT by SharpRightTurn (White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: rootin tootin

Typical GOP-E. “Winning” is more important that doing the right thing.


32 posted on 08/31/2015 5:55:09 AM PDT by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: rootin tootin

If our candidate has to pander to illegal aliens instead of us, the American people, I don’t want that candidate and he will not get my vote.

There, that was easy.


33 posted on 08/31/2015 5:58:58 AM PDT by dforest
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To: rootin tootin
I used to like American Spectator before it became a mouthpiece for the GOP-e.

Notwithstanding, polls suggest that Trump is doing well among legal immigrants--The ones who played by the rules.

34 posted on 08/31/2015 6:01:41 AM PDT by Arm_Bears (Biology is biology. Everything else is imagination.)
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To: rootin tootin

the GOPe has their collective head up their collective @$$

they want the BASE to stay home AGAIN. The FAIL is strong in this one.


35 posted on 08/31/2015 6:02:54 AM PDT by Vaquero ( Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: wastoute; ObozoMustGo2012
"Been shown repeatedly that Mittens would not have won 70% of the Hispanic vote."

Romney won 59% of the white vote to Obama's 39%. Romney won a higher percentage of the white vote than Reagan, but the size of the white vote in 2012 was much lower than when Reagan ran.

This trend will continue. The size of the white vote will continue to fall and the size of the Hispanic vote continue to grow.

The 2016 GOP candidate can still win on the white vote but he will need to win a larger percentage of the white vote than Romney did.

Hispanics are not evenly distributed. They are congregated in NV, CA, TX, AZ, FL, NJ. Florida is the pivot point in Presidential elections and if the GOP candidate doesn't win FL, he can't get elected. So the Hispanic vote in FL is most important. There are 4 groups of Hispanics in FL: Cubans, South Americans, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans(growing the fastest).

36 posted on 08/31/2015 6:03:12 AM PDT by Ben Ficklin
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To: SharpRightTurn
What you said plus the fact that the nature of the "Hispanic vote" has changed. In the 1960s and 1970s, a big component was rock-ribbed Cubans who had fled Catro's regime and had no desire to bring what they left behind with them.

By the 1980s and 1990s, this component had largely been surpassed by the second generation plus legal immigrants from Mexico and other places in Latin America which, while not as conservative friendly as the previous two decades, was at least not outright hostile.

Now, even those numbers are greatly diluted by recent immigrants who have benefited from de facto amnesty, chain immigration under the bogus excuses of family reunification and outright wards of the state who want to recreate the socialist hellholes they fled in their new host country.

It is idiotic to speak of "Hispanics" as a monolithic voting block without at least breaking them into these three subcategories.

37 posted on 08/31/2015 6:04:51 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: rootin tootin

We have already lost too many winnable elections.

It is now time for the consequences...

We will lose a nation.


38 posted on 08/31/2015 6:05:17 AM PDT by Safrguns
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To: rootin tootin

The interesting news lately have been the Trump supporters who say they are registering to vote just to vote for Trump.

That is a game changer. Trump is going to get them off the couch and in the voting booth.


39 posted on 08/31/2015 6:06:23 AM PDT by joshua c (Please dont feed the liberals)
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To: Ben Ficklin

The “Hispanic vote” will only continue to “grow” if we allow the invasion to continue. Most of us realize we would be suicidally stupid to do so.


40 posted on 08/31/2015 6:06:55 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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