Syria approaching de facto partition amid Assad military setbacks

UK Guardian ^ | August 4, 2015 | Kareem Shaheen

[C19fan]

The growing anarchy and stalemate in Syria has brought the country closer to de facto partition, as the overstretched and exhausted army of the president, Bashar al-Assad, retreats in the face of a war of attrition that has sapped its manpower.

The regime’s military has sought to retain a footprint in far-flung areas of the country, from Deir Ezzor in Syria’s eastern desert to Aleppo in the north and Deraa in the south, attempting to consolidate its hold over state institutions and protect its officer corps by retreating in the face of overwhelming offensives and subjecting lost territory to relentless and indiscriminate aerial campaigns.

[C19fan]

Assad will eventually fall back to his home base in Latakia on the Med coast. When the French took over what is now Syria from the Ottomans the initially created five states. One would become Lebanon and the other four would combine to form Syria. One of those states was called the Alawite State. The question is who will control the strip of land from Aleppo down south to Damascus.

[OddLane]

I think calling them “states” would be a charitable description. I see Syria turning more or less into what Somalia devolved into by the end of Siad Barre’s reign, only with involvement by major powers, e.g. Iran, Turkey, etc., for obvious strategic reasons.

[Paine in the Neck]

Another country thrown into bloody chaos by Obama.

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

I guess as long as a relatively functioning country, though a strict tyranny, can be reduced to rubble and turned into a staging ground for terrorist cadres and unending civil strife upon the graves of several hundred thousand former residents, yet another Islamic success story can be chalked up.

[MplsSteve]

I kinda wondered how long the Assad regime would last. The Alawites are obviously still very pro-Assad. He’s one of them.

But at the same time, they are not able to replace their combat losses. On the other hand, the Islamists can find many more recruits quite easily.

It’s sad actually because there are no good guys in this war. Assad is a dick and he’s backed by the Iranians and Hezbollah. The Islamists are well, we know what they are.

Ideally, the best thing would be a continued bloody stalemate.

[EQAndyBuzz]

“Another country thrown into bloody chaos by Obama.”

As long as everything is in chaos, the American military won’t get directly involved. This was Obama’s plan from the outset to get the US out of the Middle East and let the powers that be fight over who gets what.

[Bluewater2015]

Another country thrown into bloody chaos by Obama.

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You could say that about Libya, but not Syria. This is all on Bahsar al-Assad. He could have either crushed the Arab Spring in his country like a bug (which his sociopathic dad surely would have done) or come to terms with it (like King Abdullah did in Jordan). Bashar did neither. He dithered, allowing the opposition to grow, then decided to crush it ham-handedly. Now he’s being pushed into a pocket like the Lon Nol regime in Cambodia circa 1975. And we know how that turned out. Best he gets out now while he still has control of a major airport to fly out of.

[Bluewater2015]

As long as everything is in chaos, the American military won’t get directly involved. This was Obama’s plan from the outset to get the US out of the Middle East and let the powers that be fight over who gets what.

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If that’s so, then that’s the one good idea hatched in Zero’s tiny mind.

[Paine in the Neck]

He could have either crushed the Arab Spring in his country like a bug ...

Well, except for that bit where Obama's myrmidons arranged for billion$ in weapons and equipment to go to the Arab Spring "freedom fighters".

[Bluewater2015]

He could have either crushed the Arab Spring in his country like a bug ...
Well, except for that bit where Obama’s myrmidons arranged for billion$ in weapons and equipment to go to the Arab Spring “freedom fighters”.

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I meant squashed it like a bug RIGHT AWAY. That’s what Hafez would have done, like he did with that uprising in Hama years ago when he massacred 30,000 people there and leveled the city because folks were getting uppity. It took Zero a while to get off the line, after all.

[SunkenCiv]

Wow, really, approaching that state are they? /s Syria's been in de facto partition for more then three years. Thanks C19fan.

[MinorityRepublican]

Actually the best scenario would be a victory by Assad. He may be a Son of a Bitch but he’s a Secular Son of a Bitch who protects the ChristiAns.

[MinorityRepublican]

Yeah in retrospect, the son was not ruthless enough. He should had killed 30,000 instead of 1,000 during the inital protests back in ‘11.