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Poll: Trump is Party Pick, but Loses in General Election (Does best against Bernie Sanders
Real Clear Politics ^ | 7/30/2015 (7:15 AM ET) | Courtney Such

Posted on 07/30/2015 7:27:50 AM PDT by Laissez-faire capitalist

click here to read article


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To: Ben Ficklin
The last four elections have been rather close, with the GOP winning in 2000 and 2004 and the Democrat in 2008 and 2012. One telling number in terms of Obama's victory is his appeal to his fellow blacks, even if he is of mixed race background and not of classic African-American heritage. Note that the black vote represented 13% of the electorate in 2008 and 2012, vs. a steady 10-11% in prior elections dating back to their full enfranchisement in the 1960s. The black population is not growing as rapidly as the Hispanic or Asian populations, due to relatively little immigration from African or black Caribbean nations, compared with the influx from Latin America and Asia, plus lower birth rates, thanks to Margaret Sanger's disciples. The bump in the last two election cycles is due to higher turnout to support Obama. The Democrat candidate in 2016 is almost certain to be an old white person, whether Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, etc. Their appeal will parallel that of Gore in 2000 or Kerry in 2004.

The African American voter has been 8:1 or 9:1 Democrat since the 1960s. This is unlikely to change. However, let's assume that the group's voting percentage drops from 13% to 11%. Using 2012 figures, that means that there will be about 2.5 million fewer black voters, which, assuming a 89% Democrat support level (Gore won 90% in 2000 and Kerry won 88% in 2004) means 2.2 million fewer Democrat votes.

How would this translate in 2016 terms? Specifically, what would be the effects in the voting booths in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Jacksonville, Tampa-Saint Petersburg, Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Richmond, Newport News-Norfolk? Small declines in black voter turnout can make a lot of difference in these purple states. I don't doubt Rick Scott in Florida will use the force of his office to keep the Democrats from cheating in Dade and Broward Counties, including cracking down on Northeastern "dual voters". I'm not so sure about Kasich, however. Virginia's governor is a Clinton crony, so we can assume Democrat ballot box stuffing will occur.

81 posted on 07/30/2015 8:54:54 AM PDT by Wallace T.
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist

The only no way in Hell candidates for me are the GOPE losers.

If Cruz or Trump wins the nod, I’ll vote for them.

I’m not interested in any of the others.


82 posted on 07/30/2015 8:55:44 AM PDT by chris37 (Heartless)
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Nobody knows anything about Sanders or Hillary except for their psychotic liberal base. Once the American public sees a direct battle between the respective nominees, their poll numbers will plummet, just like with Reagan and Carter.


83 posted on 07/30/2015 8:55:54 AM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: TNMOUTH

Huck is a low-budget hanger-on. He will manage to stick around late into the spring. He doesn’t have anything else to do since he dropped his FoxNews gig.

Perry will likely get by SuperTuesday (1st week of March). If he hasn’t soared by then, he will soon drop out for a lack of money.

That will happen to many of them. If they are not making a decent showing — being no lower than 4th after SuperTuesday — they will be dropping like flies. There may be a few low-budget stragglers who make it into April, but not much further.


84 posted on 07/30/2015 8:56:48 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: dfwgator

Sorry, I meant for Walker...

Veep for Walker.


85 posted on 07/30/2015 8:57:47 AM PDT by TNMOUTH
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To: TomGuy

I’m surprised Huckleberry has so much support. Perry too.


86 posted on 07/30/2015 8:58:31 AM PDT by TNMOUTH
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To: TNMOUTH

Maybe, but I sense that VP will be a woman, either Fiorina or Susana Martinez.


87 posted on 07/30/2015 8:58:42 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: dfwgator

Ah, good thought.

If Jeb, God Forbid, is the nominee, I go with Martinez...

Otherwise, Carly might fit the bill.


88 posted on 07/30/2015 9:01:18 AM PDT by TNMOUTH
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist

Cruz is my guy too!!! But I could vote for Trump, Carson, or Walker. Hope Cruz catches fire.


89 posted on 07/30/2015 9:01:57 AM PDT by Calpublican (GOP, Representation or we're taking this mo' fo' down!!!!!!!)
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To: TNMOUTH

Trump/Martinez, you’d have to admit, would make heads explode, after the way the Latinos have gone after Trump.


90 posted on 07/30/2015 9:03:41 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: TNMOUTH

If Jeb gets it, personally I don’t care
If Jesus is his running mate. Not that my
Opinion or vote matters. I live in
Californistan.


91 posted on 07/30/2015 9:04:56 AM PDT by Calpublican (GOP, Representation or we're taking this mo' fo' down!!!!!!!)
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To: TNMOUTH

Yeah. I add Carson to that list.

Some of his interviews seem to suggest that he is much more liberal than his outward appearence indicates.


92 posted on 07/30/2015 9:06:25 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist

If Trump would cause a Democrat win then why are all the Democrat publications so concerned about Trump being in the race?


93 posted on 07/30/2015 9:06:28 AM PDT by BRL
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To: Laissez-faire capitalist
Trump has picked up at least a dozen points in the head-to-head match-ups with Dems.

Just over the last 30 days.

Quinnipiac forgot to mention that part:)

94 posted on 07/30/2015 9:11:31 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18 - Be The Leaderless Resistance)
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To: Zuben Elgenubi
"Which leads us to question why Walker is giving up on Florida . . . "

He has the very same paymasters as Bush and they told him to stay out of FLA.

He's only the "Plan B".

95 posted on 07/30/2015 9:14:57 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18 - Be The Leaderless Resistance)
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To: dfwgator
"So Nostradamus, who is going to win the World Series?"

Easy.

SF Giants.

96 posted on 07/30/2015 9:16:32 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18 - Be The Leaderless Resistance)
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To: Mariner
Easy. SF Giants.

Nah, it's an odd-numbered year.

97 posted on 07/30/2015 9:17:59 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: TomasUSMC
"WE MUST GET WHITE AMERICANS IN A FIGHTING MOOD"

Never truer words were spoken.

We either fight or eventually cease to exist.

As that is a principal objective or the majority of the worlds citizens and the political representation.

98 posted on 07/30/2015 9:19:47 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18 - Be The Leaderless Resistance)
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To: TomGuy

Perry is the designated attack chi Wawa to help jbush. Just a useful idiot.

He should stay at the kid table debate.


99 posted on 07/30/2015 9:25:03 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Red Steel

Trump will devour them like PacMan during a power surge.


100 posted on 07/30/2015 9:40:45 AM PDT by rhubarbk (Crush Hillary in 2016)
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