A World Without Work

The Atlantic ^ | June 23, 2015 | Derek Thompson

[C19fan]

1. Youngstown, U.S.A.

The end of work is still just a futuristic concept for most of the United States, but it is something like a moment in history for Youngstown, Ohio, one its residents can cite with precision: September 19, 1977.

For much of the 20th century, Youngstown’s steel mills delivered such great prosperity that the city was a model of the American dream, boasting a median income and a homeownership rate that were among the nation’s highest. But as manufacturing shifted abroad after World War II, Youngstown steel suffered, and on that gray September afternoon in 1977, Youngstown Sheet and Tube announced the shuttering of its Campbell Works mill. Within five years, the city lost 50,000 jobs and $1.3 billion in manufacturing wages. The effect was so severe that a term was coined to describe the fallout: regional depression.

[C19fan]

Long form article about the effects of automation and technology will have on work. I am an amateur Victorianist and one thing to keep in mind the benefits of the Industrial Revolution did not trickle down to the workers until the 2nd half of the 19th century. The Luddites who smashed machines were rational in the sense that they were skilled well compensated workers under the old system but these machines would destroy that. A lot of the agitation that resulted in the revolutions of 1848 was a reaction of what was skilled workers to losing their standard of living with technological change. We might be in a similar period of downward pressure on standards of living as many workers are displaced and do not have the skills or cognitive ability to adjust.

[Dark Knight]

We might be in a similar period of downward pressure on standards of living as many workers are displaced and do not have the skills or cognitive ability to adjust.<<

This revolution may actually include what we now think of skills or cognitive abilities. Watson is being trained for personalized diagnoses...google is training cars...google is recognizing faces and making interconnections...

The super smart/rich will be the last ones in the economic building we now have...

DK

[ClearCase_guy]

Have you read “The Diamond Age” by Neal Stephenson? Its science fiction featuring a neo-Victorian society in a nanotechnology world. A lot of interesting ideas in the format of a Victorian novel.

[lacrew]

I guess I don’t see a trend in decline of work...or at best I see the trend as artificial. We have developed a permanent entitlement class - and to them the notion of going in to work, day after day, on time, and ready to go, is absolutely absurd.

And they don’t have to. The government fulfills their needs.

I work in a business that interacts with construction companies a lot. They can’t find people. One guy told me that 1 out of 4 hires turns out to be a scammer - he works for a few weeks, claims a back injury, gets workman’s comp, and the company’s rates go up. This guy still needs people, and doesn’t even bid on some projects because he’s so short-handed. Plenty of work - and plenty of people sitting on their hands.

And frankly, as China and India grow their economies and develop a middle class, their access to near slave labor is diminished. If anything, I see an opportunity to re-open US mills in some industries, in the future.

[oblomov]

So in the post war era, with Japan and Germany in shambles, the US enjoyed a 25-year period of manufacturing primacy.

Prosperity is so transitory. Yet people regard a short run of economic success as a permanent state, and come to expect it and stop working to preserve it, thereby leading to its demise.

As Robert Heinlein put it,

“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.

This is known as "bad luck.”

[bert]

you should make a practice of reading forbes.com

Forbes has shifted the focus of much of the reporting to the present as acted out by young entrepreneurs. The tales of their success and yes, failures, their struggle to build businesses is a glimpse of the future.

Although there might not be a rebuilding of Youngstown, a complacent city that died of it’s own hand, there is a bright future for those willing to work hard and take on risk.

[MoochPooch]

“skills or cognitive ability to adjust”

I agree with you there. I hear over & over the talk about retraining, pursuing a STEM major, etc. The problem is — not all of us have those talents. (I’m in the same boat.) Or at least on that level. It is a certain kind of intelligence, and not something money can buy. Or environment. Liberals like to say that anyone with self-esteem or the right nurturance can become anything. Bull. You can drop me in the middle of Google, but I will never be a techie. I might learn coding — in fact, I want to learn it — but there is no guarantee that I can compete with the big boys.

Sociologist Charles Murray spoke about a growing “cognitive elite.” Basically, the highly creative or analytical will survive. Or maybe someone who does hands-on work, like plumbing, which can’t be outsourced to India or replaced by Robbie the Robot.

Social Darwinism at its finest.

[The Duke]

I am an amateur Victorianist

I've not heard of any "Victorianist" before, although in recent years I've felt a little drawn in that direction myself.

Are there any web sites and/or organizations you might direct me towards?

[tbw2]

Not all the jobs will go away, because there are too many that people don’t trust machines to do.

Skilled blue collar work, though, is going to be the most secure and stable.

The Great Shift Toward Automation and the Future of Employment
http://tamarawilhite.hubpages.com/hub/The-Great-Shift-and-the-Future-of-Employment

[Pining_4_TX]

Forbes was purchased by some other company, and I think it’s a foreign company. Have you noticed some changes in their articles? Sometimes I sense some creeping leftism. That would be a real shame.

[bert]

regarding creeping leftism, I concur. rather than editorial leftism Forbes occasionally mentions persons or companies that have leftist views or actions.

Steve Forbes is however still editor in chief and writes in each issue. Rich Karlgard is still publisher

Apparently Forbes has survived the meltdown that has ended or seriously eroded the readership loss other magazines have.

It is no longer the magazine I have read for 35 years but is similar enough that I don’t cancel. I sincerely miss Malcolm Forbes