Harvard, Dartmouth: Social Security forecasts have been too optimistic — and increasingly biased

Hot Air ^ | May 9, 2015 | Ed Morrissey

[T Ruth]

[snip]

Studies from Harvard and Dartmouth this week corroborate Bush’s warnings on Social Security, and further accuse the SSA of increasing bias in its analyses in order to maintain the illusion of a slower decline:

[snip] researchers find that the SSA’s actuarial forecasts have been consistently overstating the financial health of the program’s trust funds since 2000.

“These biases are getting bigger and they are substantial,” said Gary King, co-author of the studies and director of Harvard’s Institute for Quantitative Social Science. “[Social Security] is going to be insolvent before everyone thinks.” …

Researchers examined forecasts published in the annual trustees’ reports from 1978, when the reports began to consistently disclose projected financial indicators, until 2013. Then, they compared the forecasts the agency made on such variables as mortality and labor force participation rates to the actual observed data. Forecasts from trustees reports from 1978 to 2000 were roughly unbiased, researchers found. In that time, the administration made overestimates and underestimates, but the forecast errors appeared to be random in their direction.

“After 2000, forecast errors became increasingly biased, and in the same direction. Trustees Reports after 2000 all overestimated the assets in the program and overestimated solvency of the Trust Funds,” wrote the researchers, [snip]

How bad is it? Barron’s notes that the estimates are off by $1 trillion, maybe more.

Some of the predictions have already been proven correct. Social Security went into the red on payments against revenues in early 2010, rather than in 2017 as predicted by Reid and the Democrats [snip]

[T Ruth]

I'd rather see Social Security phased out in an orderly way. But that is politically impossible. Next best thing is that it goes bankrupt, young taxpayers rebel, and it ends. Probably it will turn into another welfare program, but then it will be subject to annual budget negotiations.

I certainly will not support Republicrats who want to "save social security."

If you're eligible, sign up now. One, you'll only get less by waiting, and two, you'll help bankrupt the system sooner.

Revive freedom. Repeal the New Deal.

[Chickensoup]

Or SS receipeants will be executed at 72

[dp0622]

Like I said in the last thread, there IS NO federal bank account with trillions in it from SS taxes.
There is a bucket full of worthless IOUs.
This whole thing Is a FRAUD!!
and the elderly, including mom, who worked 20 years, retired at 62, is 82 now and on her way to 100 God bless her, are bankrupting us!!!
If she averaged 40k over 20 years, at 12 percent taken between her and employer, that’s 96k she contributed. at a 5 percent rate of yearly interest would have left 166k. She gets 12k a year, so that would was gone six years ago. And she aint goin nowhere. AND there was NO account with interest so it was really gone after eight years!!

[SharpRightTurn]

I guess it’s time for Congress to “fix” SS again. How many fixes will that make? Perhaps the new “fix” will be adding millions of illegals to the program to “pay into” the pyramid to keep the scam going for a little longer.

[Usagi_yo]

Must be the liberal forecasts because I’ve seen plenty of doom and gloom fall off the cliff forecasts from conservatives for years.

[T Ruth]

there IS NO federal bank account with trillions in it from SS taxes. There is a bucket full of worthless IOUs.

You are right. Those IOU's will have to be paid -- if they are paid -- from general revenues. The government is running enormous deficits now. I wonder . . . is this sustainable? Should anyone under 45 count on Social Security?

Not to mention that interest on the $17 trillion national debt was $430 billion last year.

[DoughtyOne]

...researchers find that the SSA’s actuarial forecasts have been consistently overstating the financial health of the program’s trust funds since 2000.

When someone wants to enlighten me, and then they talk about the Social Security Trust Fund...

Give me a freakin' break.

[Stand Watch Listen]

[cherry]

my husband is set to start receiving next month...he’ll be 63...I’ll wait a couple of years and keep working..

[cherry]

all those with wussie jobs should wait....but for we that do hard work, maybe 58?.....I just love how people talk about increasing the retirement age....so many out there have easy peesy jobs, at a desk, without moving barely a muscle.....let them keep working..

[Calpublican]

Our government has been lying to us?!!!!?!!!!! lol

[GOPJ]

You’re being bankrupted by people scamming Social Security Disability. Do you know what percentage of the ‘black community’ in Baltimore is ‘disabled’?

Ever wonder why you don’t know?

[glorgau]

Fix #1 - purge the disability rolls by having them all requalify. That ought to save a few hundred billion.

[CitizenUSA]

I don’t disagree there are recipients like mom, but it’s more complicated than that. There are also people who contribute into the system for many years and die before collecting. I would love to slowly phase out SS, but the problems are twofold: #1 Congress keeps adding more people who haven’t contributed to the payout side of the ledger (hastening SS’s bankruptcy), and #2 there are retirees who depend on SS and have spent a lifetime contributing to the program. The country has a moral obligation not to welch on the latter.

[dp0622]

I agree wholeheartedly. And mom played by the rules. Not saying she did anything illegal. It just is what it is. FR was an idiot, but I don’t think even he saw average life spans reaching into the eighties and turning 90 becoming commonplace

[dp0622]

I bet they’re getting SSI where you don’t have to work to get disability. It’s ok, it’s reparations. /s

[Gen.Blather]

“The country has a moral obligation not to welch on the latter.”

I did a report in high school on SS back in 1970. After reading up I knew the system couldn’t continue for very long. They’ve played games to keep it going this long. They’ll keep gaming it so that it breaks on somebody else’s watch. They’ll keep printing money until it’s worthless but everybody gets “paid.”

[petenmi]

I remember after my father-in-law passed away, I went to return his SS check to the local SS branch office since he passed away at the end of the month. It looked like a refugee center and no one in the waiting area spoke English. But they were all there to claim their SS benefits though I’m certain that none of the people paid one penny into SS.

[Engedi]

I agree with you on this. Easy for politicians to raise the retirement age to 70; tell that to the construction workers and other physical laborers doing back breaking work they now have to work until they are 70.

[Engedi]

Yep, just a few weeks ago read an article on Puerto Rico, where they get SSDI because they don’t speak English. In America, you can get SSDI for not speaking English, it’s considered a disability.