Posted on 04/28/2015 1:30:08 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Via the Washington Times, this is worth blogging if only because, despite the field being ridiculously crowded, there are realistically only two or three guys who could win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Rand Paul could do it if the Ron Paul rEVOLution in both states turns out in droves, but he has yet to make a splash in early polls and he’ll face bruising attacks from the right before those states go to vote. Marco Rubio could do it but he’ll have to cobble together a plurality by clawing votes from other top-flight contenders across the spectrum — Bush, Cruz, Huckabee, and Scott Walker. If anyone’s going to do it, it’s probably Walker himself. He’s got an Iowa pedigree, executive experience, and the sort of evangelical bona fides that always plays well with Iowa Republicans. And, unlike the last two winners of the caucuses, he’s a legitimate threat to win the nomination. If you’re an Iowa social con, you could vote for Walker and feel good knowing that you really might be launching the next president into political orbit.
The latest from PPP: Walker 23, Rubio 13, Bush 12.
[snip]
A 38/37 favorable rating sounds bad until you realize that Chris Christie’s rating is … 28/50. (To put that in perspective, even Donald Trump manages 40/40.) What’s the secret to Walker’s success? Simple: He’s the guy whom every faction within the party can happily tolerate.
[snip]
Most candidates see their support swing, sometimes wildly, between self-identified tea partiers, opponents, and neutrals, but Walker’s putting up (relatively) big, consistent numbers across all three groups. Interestingly, although he’s perceived as a center-right candidate, his ideological base lies firmly on the right:
[snip]
At 28 percent, he doubles up his closest competitor among the “very conservative” crowd. (That “closest competitor,” incidentally, is, er, Mike Huckabee, suggesting that social conservatism is strongly informing the “very conservative” demographic.) Walker also fares well among “somewhat conservative” and “moderate” Republicans, although it’s Rand Paul who leads the last group — a bit of a surprise given that he’s traditionally identified himself as a tea partier. Or maybe not such a surprise: I think Rand’s been repositioning himself as a “moderate” candidate for awhile now, knowing that he’d have trouble outflanking Cruz among conservatives. As the base has turned back towards hawkishness and the field of social cons has grown larger, Paul realized that he’s going to have all kinds of trouble peeling off tea-party votes. His new coalition is libertarians, moderates, and young adults who like his unorthodoxy on issues like sentencing reform. What that means, though, ironically, is that Paul may find himself in direct competition less with Ted Cruz, as everyone has anticipated, than with Jeb Bush for middle-of-the-roaders.
As it turns out, though, Rand isn’t the top pick of young Republicans. At least not in Iowa:
[snip]
Only Walker and Jeb are in double digits across all three age demographics, and Jeb’s barely in double digits in two of them. One other curious footnote here: Once again we find Marco Rubio performing better with older voters than he does with younger ones. That’s not supposed to happen — the young, baby-faced, optimistic candidate is supposed to excite twentysomethings — but we saw it in last week’s CNN poll too. I still don’t understand why. Maybe Rubio’s American exceptionalism pitch has some special appeal to older Republicans that it doesn’t have for younger ones. Or maybe it’s true that younger Republicans skew libertarian and Rubio, a firm social conservative and the most outspoken hawk in the field, simply alienates them.
i’ll vote for him in the election but my heart is with Cruz. He speaks to me like no one has. Not since Reagan. And I dare say he would possibly be the smartest pres we ever had.
As long as "anybody" is Ted.
Unfortunately, Cruz and his corporate darling wife have missed the populist sentiment in the country. By supporting retention of illegals for his wife’s corporate buddies all his acumen, learning and social conservatism which made me an early Cruz supporter is shifted to Walker. A Cruz flop now won’t work.
What?!?
Born November 2, 1967 in Colorado, CO (Meets the Jus Soli Requirement)
Parents were
Liewellyn Scott Walker, born in IL
Patricia Ann Fitch, born in IL
Both parents were US Citizens at the time of his birth (Meets the Jus Sanguinis Requirement)
Scott Kevin Walker is a NATURAL BORN CITIZEN
You are claiming that Cruz is pro-illegal alien and Walker is against? I am afraid that you have things rather completely backward.
Our country’s biggest problem is moral rot and disregard for basic biblical values. Walker proved his willingness to celebrate immorality and spit in God’s face when he went to the lesbian mock wedding. He won’t get my vote.
Don’t get me wrong: I love Scott Walker (breaking the back of the teacher’s union in Wisconsin should enshrine him in some sort of Hall of Fame forever, just by itself), and I’d happily vote for him, should he be the nominee. But... saying that (in addition to Walker) the only others capable of winning Iowa, in Allahpundit’s eyes, are Marco Rubio and Rand Paul?!
Sheesh. Credibility = train-wreck, with that statement. Ted Cruz is only mentioned as an afterthought, which is bizarre... or possibly a subtle attempt at a self-fulfilling prophecy. (Not that we’ve ever seen THAT before, fro the media... *eyeroll*)
All you guys check it prove it and I will switch back to Cruz.
“i’ll vote for him in the election but my heart is with Cruz. He speaks to me like no one has. Not since Reagan. And I dare say he would possibly be the smartest pres we ever had.”
I believe Cruz is being seriously underestimated in Iowa and across the entire GOP primary electorate. Also, polls this early on are fairly meaningless. Recall that in 2012 Michele Bachmann won the Iowa straw poll and Perry, Cain and Gingrich all lead there until Santorum finally prevailed as the last “not Romney” standing.
Like last time, I believe the debates will be a huge factor, and I have no doubt that Cruz will do great even if the rest gang up on him. Walker on the other hand, is an unknown as far as debate skills are concerned. If he holds his own, he will be difficult to beat.
ALL making noise to run in 2016 are for keeping majority of illegals in the country. Every one of them! And yes, that includes the junior senator from Texas. Where is Tancredo when we need him?
spring in New Hampshire. Time for somebodies to go ring some door bells every Saturday ...
You were never a Cruz guy then...if you are that weak minded to flip your allegiance.
You are right...the fact that Cruz isn’t in the top 3 in IA doesn’t jive with other polls we have seen. Of course, he is winning all of the straw polls in SC, so who knows. I think Cruz is being under-represented for a reason....
It doesn’t help that Disney is laying off a ton load of IT workers in favor of hiring the H1B1 immigrants that Cruz supports. It is not going to be pretty unless he changes him mind and FAST.
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