Home Sweet Home (again)

The housing data will roll in again and it could reveal much more about the economy than the jobs report. There are interesting dynamics, such as the young adults who settle with paying rent, while putting off ownership. And for those looking to own, there’s a growing appetite for new homes.

Later this morning, we get the latest data on housing starts and permits, which have mostly been disappointing. While, the starts are up from the trough, they are still below the historical average and more than 50% below the peak of 2004.

Although, there have been a lot of miscues with the housing recovery, the homebuilder index (XHP) just keeps chugging along.

Interestingly, underscoring the potential for housing to come to the rescue, homebuilder sentiment improved for the first time this year with high expectations; giving hope that perhaps the housing market is turning the corner.

The major equity indices began fading fast in the premarket hours and the early economic releases did little to revive them this morning. Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 11th climbed to 294,000 (14,000 above consensus) after coming in at a revised 282,000 (from 281,000) the prior week. However, this did little to move the 4-week average which inched up to 282,750, still lower than the same measurement from a month ago. On the other hand, continuing jobless claims, which lag by a week declined by 40,000 to 2.268 million which is a new 15-year low. The four week average also fell, declining 33,000 to 2.329 million. For the third week in a row, the unemployment rate for insured workers came in at a reading of 1.7%.

As we mentioned earlier, the housing starts and permits report was also released earlier and was rather disappointing. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for starts came in at 0.926 million when consensus called for over 1.0 million starts and the SAAR for permits was also shy of consensus, coming in at 1.039 million. We will dig further into these numbers in the Afternoon Note.

Below are some of the notable companies that reported earnings this morning before the open…

When housing tanked and millions were foreclosed on, in 2009, I started a REO business for managing banks.

By 2011 there were nearly 9 million homes that were basically off book or what was called “Black Book and Gray Market”.

We kept the properties in showable condition and many stayed off market for 1, 2 years and more.

The goal was to keep them market ready but, held as pocket listings until the market inventory tightened up and the demand for more inventory would be fulfilled by these ghost properties.

Beginning in 2012/13 market conditions dictated more property and building more homes wouldn’t and couldn’t satisfy demand quick enough.

So, they began releasing homes for MLS and MBA proclaimed the ghost homes would largely reappear and fulfill demand.

Problem was, new home starts were being depressed because they just couldnt compete with an existing inventory and banks, fresh from loaning the U.S. Billions many times over and guaranteed at 3% to just under 5%.

A very safe bet for a business that sells money and has to provide with risk factored in. The government is practically zero risk and one document could replace milions of small business and home owner demands.

Now, the market is tightening inventories and the sub prime markets, outside of automobiles, has been saturated.

Sadly, my lil REO management business is over. Just not enough inventory, with less than 1 million off book.

So, this is good news and now banks will have to make deals with the SMB’s and potential homeowners to pump up loan activities in the future.

Sadly that business ran its cycle as I expected it to but, that’s good for the economy.

The effects however wont be felt for another three years. Just in time for the next administration to take credit.

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