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Investments go from Friday 13th to Ides of March-- Thread March 15, 2015
Weekly investment & finance thread ^ | MARCH 15, 2015 | Freeper Investors

Posted on 03/15/2015 7:00:49 AM PDT by expat_panama

Seems like there's an awful lot of doom'n'gloom out there:

(excerpt from)

  More Volatility Sends Market Down for a 3rd Week

The stock market was hit hard on Friday, capping a third week of declines as investors reacted to a steep drop in oil prices and a jump in the value of the dollar.

Utilities, major exporters and companies that make basic materials like steel had the biggest declines.

The sell-off came at the end of a volatile week, and it sets the stage for a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. Investors will be watching closely for clues about the central bank’s views on the economy and interest rates.

“This week has really been about investors’ outlooks adjusting in the face of higher interest rates later this year,” said Gabriela Santos, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Funds.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 145.91 points, or 0.8 percent, to 17,749.31. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index lost 12.55 points, or 0.6 percent, to 2,053.40, and the Nasdaq lost 21.53 points, or 0.4 percent, to 4,871.76. Continue reading the main story

Benchmark United States crude fell $2.21 to close at $44.84 a barrel in New York. Oil is now within 40 cents of its low for the year, and its lowest level in six years, after a drop of 10 percent this week. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many American refineries, fell $2.41 to close at $54.67 a barrel in London.

Several energy stocks followed the price of oil lower...

[snip]

In the bond market, United States government bond prices did not move much. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was unchanged at 2.12 percent.

Gold edged up 50 cents, to $1,152.40 an ounce, silver fell 2 cents, to $15.49 an ounce, and copper was flat at $2.66 a pound.

*   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *  

(excerpt from)

US stocks fall for third-straight week; worries about oil prices and interest rates persist

The stock market was hit hard Friday, capping a third week of declines, as investors reacted to a steep drop in oil prices and a jump in the value of the dollar.

Utilities, companies that make basic materials like steel, and major exporters had the biggest declines.

The sell-off came at the end of a volatile week and sets the stage for a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. Investors will be watching closely for clues about the central bank's views on the economy and interest rates.

"This week has really been about investors' outlooks adjusting in the face of higher interest rates later this year," said Gabriela Santos, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Funds.

 

Traders gather at a post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, March 13, 2015. U.S. stocks are opening slightly lower a day after the market notched its best performance in five weeks. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

 

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 145.91 points, or 0.8 percent, to 17,749.31. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 12.55 points, or 0.6 percent, to 2,053.40 and the Nasdaq composite lost 21.53 points, or 0.4 percent, to 4,871.76.

Oil dropped sharply after the International Energy Agency said prices had further to fall because supplies were continuing to rise. Benchmark U.S. crude fell $2.21 to close at $44.84 a barrel in New York. Oil is now within 40 cents of its low for the year, and its lowest level in six years, after a drop of 10 percent this week. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, fell $2.41 to close at $54.67 a barrel in London.

[snip]

Gold edged up 50 cents to $1,152.40 an ounce, silver fell two cents to $15.49 an ounce and copper was flat at $2.66 a pound. In other energy trading, wholesale gasoline fell 4.8 cents...

 

 

 

 

 

(excerpt from)

U.S. stocks end rocky stretch with third straight weekly loss

 

Consumers aren't as optimistic. Sentiment index slides in March.

 

 

U.S. stocks suffered another bout of selling on Friday and the main indexes registered losses for a third straight week.

The turbulent week was dominated by wild swings in currencies, with the dollar surging to multiyear highs against the euro as expectations rose for a rate hike by the middle of the year.

Oil prices fell nearly 10% over the week as the commodity had been hit hard due to a stronger dollar, reports of a supply glut and heightened output. Weaker-than-expected economic data added to the dour Wall Street mood.

The S&P 500 SPX, -0.61% closed 12.55 points or 0.6%, lower at 2,053 and lost 0.9% over the week. Energy sector stock led the decliners over the week, falling 2.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.82% dropped 145.91 points, or 0.8%, to 17,749.31 and recorded a 0.6% loss over the week.

The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.44% ended the day down 21.53 points, or 0.4%, at 4,871.76 and lost 1.1% over the week.

Investors grappled with mixed economic reports over the week. Friday’s producer prices report showed a surprise drop. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment slid in March, falling more than experts had forecast. Those less-than-stellar reports followed a report on Thursday showing a sharp fall in unemployment claims.

[snip]

Regardless, Skelly thinks market reaction to the eventual hike will be measured.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and although no rate changes are expected, investors will closely be watching Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s news conference for hints on how patient the central bank will be before tightening its monetary policy.

 

 

*   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *  

 

 

Then again, universal doom'n'gloom's usually a very bullish indicator.  That and the fact that most of the price plunge took place before this past week when the trend turned flat...

 

 

This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--

Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well.   Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy.

 



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; financial; stockmarket; wallstreet
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To: Starboard
...your other point, fundamentals don’t seem to matter much anymore.

Not sure where that idea came from but let's put it to rest and have both of us agreeing that fundamentals matter and they mean things.  We talked a lot about EPS's, so lets actually look at them:

Sure they're at an all time high, just like they were in '88, '89, '93, '94, '95, '97 --the point being that as a metric it's not by itself clearly bearish.  This site has 'em going back to 1870 and 'all time high' levels is the norm.  Let's go the whole enchelada w/ earnings and dividends on top of share prices:

 You tell me: why should we see current levels as bearish?

...This is a fed-driven market...

That line works great for pundits and politicians, but working for a living demands hard facts and numbers.  The fed does not buy common stock so they can't move share prices.  Loony leftists like to say the government's all powerful but in real life the Fed's small potatoes.  Right now Fed banks got about $4T --mostly T-bills plus a few mortgages.   Total corporate assets (from page 124 of the Flow of Funds) for non-financial businesses is $37T.  The Fed --or any governmental agency for that matter-- couldn't control the free market even if it wanted to.   Central planning is a lie.

21 posted on 03/15/2015 1:39:50 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: abb

ahhh, making me remember the old French square for fresh donuts, a carriage ride, and then a great sandwich at a sidewalk cafe listing to jazz from street musicians...


22 posted on 03/15/2015 1:43:40 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

We’re not even on the same page. Good luck in your investing endeavors.


23 posted on 03/15/2015 2:09:01 PM PDT by Starboard
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To: expat_panama

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3268181/posts


24 posted on 03/15/2015 2:12:35 PM PDT by mad_as_he$$
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To: Starboard

you bet, cheers!


25 posted on 03/15/2015 2:34:58 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama; Starboard

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.

What “The sky is falling!” contingent misses is that when you invest in stocks, you are investing in American business.

American business WILL figure out a way to win. They always have, they always will. Their CEOs want it, the politicians want it - both the liberals and the conservatives.

Individual companies come and go, but, as a whole, American business succeeds.

With my asset allocation, if stock gains push my stock investments too high, I capture some of that gain and move it into bonds. In fact, I’m buying some Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities (VAIPX) and Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt (VWIUX) funds tomorrow.


26 posted on 03/15/2015 3:40:43 PM PDT by ConstantSkeptic (Be careful about preconceptions)
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To: ConstantSkeptic
American business succeeds

--even when the American government fails.  American business is the American people, a group that is truly great..  Thanks for restating this, it's one of those things that really needs to be repeated.

27 posted on 03/15/2015 6:04:33 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: 1010RD; A Cyrenian; abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; aposiopetic; Aquamarine; ..

Whoa-- let's hit the new week running with strong futures -- metals up +0.11% and stock indexes +0.46%!  Also our Monday morning's getting reports early with:

Empire Manufacturing
Industrial Production
Capacity Utilization
NAHB Housing Market Index
Net Long-Term TIC Flows

--and somehow we'll want to keep up with treads active since the weekend:


28 posted on 03/16/2015 5:24:35 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Reverse split your stock 2 for 1 ... EPS doubles.

Finance professor pointed this out to me decades ago to show that EPS alone means nothing.


29 posted on 03/16/2015 6:44:31 AM PDT by Comment Not Approved (When bureaucrats outlaw hunting, outlaws will hunt bureaucrats.)
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To: ConstantSkeptic

American business WILL figure out a way to win…Their CEOs want it, the politicians want it - both the liberals and the conservatives.

*****************

American business is adaptive, yes, but the U.S. has the highest corporate tax rate in the OECD. How are the politicians helping in that regard? And how do liberal politicians’ desire to expand the state and regulate everything that moves help?


30 posted on 03/16/2015 7:59:31 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: Comment Not Approved
name one exec who'd cash in if he boosted the EPS by buying back all but a couple shares while earnings fell by 90%.

Reverse split your stock 2 for 1 ... EPS doubles.

Let's take that to mean you know of no CEO that gets extra for masking falling earnings with buybacks.   We can also just agree that the same applies with stock splits.

31 posted on 03/16/2015 9:13:48 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: 1010RD; A Cyrenian; abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; aposiopetic; Aquamarine; ..

So a happy St. Patrick's day although futures traders aren't pointing to any new pots of gold,  They got metals down -0.72% and stock indexes off -0.28%.  After all, yesterday's bouce was low volume (dead cat style?).  Seems the up-tick was another bad-news = good-news with the dismal production and housing numbers.  Today's reports are 'lite' with just Housing Starts and Building Permits.

In other news:

In Praise Of Stock Market Short Sellers - James Surowiecki, The New Yorker
Wall Street's Bonuses Should Be a Great Deal Larger - John Tamny, RCM
The DJIA We Know and Love, But Don't Use - Allan Sloan, Washington Post
Low Rates Are Here For a While: How to Play Them - Martin Pelletier, NP
Millions of Workers Seem Anchored To Sideline - Gene Epstein, Barron's
More Phony Obamacare Claims From White House - Editorial, Investor's


32 posted on 03/17/2015 5:07:31 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Alan Sloan is full of sh!t.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Dow

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

Initial components

Dow calculated his first average purely of industrial stocks on May 26, 1896, creating what is now known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Of the original 12 industrials, only General Electric currently remains part of that index.[11] The other 11 were:[12]

American Cotton Oil Company, a predecessor company to Bestfoods, now part of Unilever.
American Sugar Company, became Domino Sugar in 1900, now Domino Foods, Inc.
American Tobacco Company, broken up in a 1911 antitrust action.
Chicago Gas Company, bought by Peoples Gas Light in 1897, now an operating subsidiary of Integrys Energy Group.
Distilling & Cattle Feeding Company, now Millennium Chemicals, formerly a division of LyondellBasell, the latter of which recently emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.[13]
Laclede Gas Company, still in operation as the Laclede Group, Inc., removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1899.
National Lead Company, now NL Industries, removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1916.
North American Company, an electric utility holding company, broken up by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 1946.
Tennessee Coal, Iron and Railroad Company in Birmingham, Alabama, bought by U.S. Steel in 1907; U.S. Steel was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1991.
U.S. Leather Company, dissolved in 1952.
United States Rubber Company, changed its name to Uniroyal in 1961, merged with private B.F. Goodrich in 1986, bought by Michelin in 1990.


33 posted on 03/17/2015 5:30:04 AM PDT by abb ("News reporting is too important to be left to the journalists." Walter Abbott (1950 -))
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To: expat_panama

Starts - Huge miss (weather)
Permits - In line


34 posted on 03/17/2015 5:38:06 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

stock futures coming back up, b.n.=g.n.? Maybe like yesterday’s horrible production & utilization stats.


35 posted on 03/17/2015 5:52:30 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

#Weather :-)

Surely that explains everything...


36 posted on 03/17/2015 6:01:47 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: expat_panama

” b.n.=g.n”

They should teach that formula in economics classes now. Seems like it has become entrenched.


37 posted on 03/17/2015 6:02:08 AM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (It's a shame nobama truly doesn't care about any of this. Our country, our future, he doesn't care)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

and that’s why it all goes back to ‘climate change’.


38 posted on 03/17/2015 6:05:14 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

sure seems that way. I’m thinking how the idea gets more and more popular the more the econ cycle ages. Traders know that rate hikes at the end of the cycle are inevitable and they just want the bull market to last forever. Problem this time is that our ‘econ growth’ hasn’t even gotten as strong as it was a decade ago, much less what we’d usually consider as “growth”...


39 posted on 03/17/2015 6:08:40 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin; expat_panama

Someone needs to do a chart where:

BN = GN
GN = GN
BN = BN
GN = BN

Like a Gartner Magic Quadrant graph or something with the market reaction :-)


40 posted on 03/17/2015 6:11:35 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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