Iraq expected to retake Tikrit within days

Iraqi forces are closing in on Tikrit and could be days away from retaking the city from ISIS fighters just over a week after launching a major offensive.

In the past three days, forces have progressed roughly 50 miles down one road toward the city and are now about a mile from its center.

The operation is part of a wide-scale offensive to retake Tikrit and Salahuddin province ordered by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on March 1.

Hadi Al-Amiri, the leader of the predominantly Shiite paramilitary force Hashd Al-Shaabi, said Monday he is confident his men can crush ISIS in Iraq without the help of the U.S.-led coalition.

"We don't need it and we won't need it," said Al-Amiri. "Anyone who puts faith in the international coalition to liberate Iraq is putting their faith on a mirage. The people of Iraq will liberate this country and put an end to ISIS."

Al-Amiri's forces appear to be leading the fight for Tikrit, with support from the Iraqi army and Sunni tribesmen. Also assisting: Iran. Iran has provided advisers, weapons and ammunition to the Iraqi government. According to the Pentagon, there may be Iranians operating heavy artillery and rocket launchers as well.

"We thank them deeply for participating with us because Iran has more experience than anyone else in fighting terrorism," Al-Amiri said.

The joint effort appears to be paying off as those near the front lines point to signs that ISIS may be fracturing in some areas over the strain of attempting to function as a state.

Reports are emerging of low morale, and U.S. officials said they're seeing "anecdotal evidence of resentment and even resistance" in ISIS-controlled areas.

In addition to the push for Tikrit, Peshmerga forces south of Kirkuk retook three villages from ISIS in past 24 hours.

This is perhaps a biased-source but they say:

“The population of Tikrit is overwhelmingly Sunni and may not welcome being liberated by Iran-backed militia...”

http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/tikrit-battle-dilemma-for-west-allies-1.1468511

The article in the OP reads:

“If Iraq regains control of the city, it could mean retaking Mosul — a city 10 times bigger — is possible. “

Quite a difference in size.

The coalition allied airstrikes help

Pictures from Kobane after the Kurdish YPG drove out ISIS show the kind of destruction that heavy airstrikes cause, with entire concrete buildings reduced to rubble. That wasn't done with RPGs and mortars.

Apparently in some cases 500 lb guided bombs were used against ISIS trucks and fighting positions. Even for an ISIS fanatic I would imagine its hard to be enthusiastic about holding your position after you see the results of a couple of those airstrikes.

ISIS is the devil incarnate, they look like devils in their black outfits. Nonetheless, it’s still with mixed feelings seeing the Iranians as the good guys but, they kind of are. If there leaders weren’t idiots threatening Israel, this, imho, could really be water under the bridge. Iranians don’t seem to be bad people, the protests “death to America” is probably staged and a small amount of people. That said, yes, our or if you will, the Administration’s foreign policy blunder was to not at least, voice some support for the protesters about 3 years ago or so in Iran.

It’d been said, at times, your ordinary Iranians long for Western freedoms.

Ben Wedeman is a very credible source, who speaks Arabic and has covered several wars in the region.

If he reports that the assaulters are a mile from the city center, I would assess that the cordon of the city is complete, and that the operation is pretty much on schedule - they were looking at 10 to 14 days, starting March 2nd.

I always expect these yahoos to fall way behind any schedule, so if they are keeping up, either they are a particularly effective organization, or ISIS has either run away (clearly many did flee early on) or significantly folded under the tactics and force brought to bear. Things could always change though. The enemy gets a vote.

Also significant in this report, is that the Kurds have made fast strides around Kirkuk. All eyes have been on the largely Shiite force heading up the road from Baghdad toward Mosul, and having to get through the Sunni stronghold of Tikrit on the way. They closed on Tikrit from both North and South, quickly closing off the forbidding desert to the West - leaving the East as the main avenue of retreat. Many ISIS from Tikrit were reported to have fallen back to the North East, to the hills, and to Hawija on the way toward Kirkuk.

The Kurdish Peshmerga (currently enjoying the Western Air support that the operation in Tikrit is not getting) may well be the anvil against which the retreating ISIS forces are to be smashed. ISIS will find no tolerance or support from Kurdish civilian populations. And the Kurds may well advance their claim and position on their ancestral homes in Kirkuk, an oil rich area which Sadaam brutally purged of Kurds, and which has been a major area of dispute in forming the new country after the Ba’ath.

No word yet if atrocities are occurring - that could have a big effect on the Mosul battle. If the Shia start mutilating and massacring prisoners and civilians, then the one million Sunni population of Mosul may feel that they have to fight. Ayatollah al Sistani (justifiably widely viewed as a voice of reason and wisdom) sent these Shiite militiamen and regular Army soldiers off on their operation with a Friday sermon to avoid war crimes. His word carries a lot of weight with Iraqi Shiites. If the Shia militias are disciplined, then the Sunni population may march out of Mosul to some Turkish refuge camps to wait out the battle of Mosul.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.