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Two Cheers for the Patriots
The Weekly Standard ^ | Jan 28, 2015 | Jonathan Last

Posted on 01/28/2015 3:42:16 PM PST by vbmoneyspender

The 2015 New England Patriots ran 187 plays per lost fumble. Which, statistically speaking, is insane. This season's Patriots are such a black swan that, as data scientist John Candido explained to Sharp,

Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you'd expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances.

Which in layman's terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, [makes it] very unlikely that it's a coincidence.

It gets unlikelier still: After finding this outlier, Sharp went digging and expanded his search to the last 25 years. And when he ranked the teams, by season, by the highest number of offensive plays per lost fumble, four of the top six seasons recorded were by the Patriots. And the Patriots have led the NFL in the category in every five-year period since 2007.

This sort of thing doesn't happen by accident. It suggests that while the rest of the league was sleeping, Belichick was in his mad scientist laboratory looking for hidden points of leverage within the game and not only discovering them, but finding out a way to exploit them, too. Is this about deflated footballs? I very much doubt that 1.5 psi could account for such a gigantic disparity. In fact, Deflategate is probably the least likely explanation.

No, I suspect that what happened is that Belichick had the some stat-head do a big, Sabremetric work-up of football statistics and discovered that lost fumbles have a disproportionate impact on wins. And I suspect that after learning this, he made fumble rates a key metric in personnel decisions. And I suspect that he did further analysis on what types of plays are more likely to result in fumbles, and then altered his play-calling schemes accordingly. In short, I suspect that Belichick has been doing Moneyball in football without anyone else knowing it.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: nepatriots
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1 posted on 01/28/2015 3:42:16 PM PST by vbmoneyspender
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To: vbmoneyspender

Not a Patriots fan, but I hope they destroy the sea gulls.


2 posted on 01/28/2015 3:49:03 PM PST by Veggie Todd (The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. TJ)
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To: vbmoneyspender

Belichick is a fricking football genius and the other coaches are piqued about that.


3 posted on 01/28/2015 3:49:59 PM PST by yldstrk
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To: yldstrk

Deflategate has been a set up from the get go.
The ball boy takes a leak in 90 seconds and we have conspiracy theorist and jaded pansies at espn having a meltdown!
Puhleeze!
The NFL owes my Boys an apology.
This is the most inept cover up Roger Goodell has put up since Ray Lewis.


4 posted on 01/28/2015 3:56:01 PM PST by acapesket
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To: vbmoneyspender
Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution ...

Based on the assumption that the sky is red, the chances that it's being blue today was a coincidence is like winning 20 lotteries in a row.

This story blows itself up in its first lines. They sky is not red, and football fumbles do not follow a normal distribution.

5 posted on 01/28/2015 3:57:29 PM PST by tinyowl (A equals A)
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To: vbmoneyspender
I may get flamed for this but - even though I don't like either team playing this weekend - I almost don't care about deflategate - I'm sure there have been more egregious acts done to get an edge and it may chip away a bit from the integrity of the game but when compared to the thugs and criminals who play the game today, this just doesn't bother me overall.
6 posted on 01/28/2015 3:57:57 PM PST by capydick ("If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth.")
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To: yldstrk

If he such a genius how did he blow Super Bowl XLII? It was poor coaching that lost that game.


7 posted on 01/28/2015 3:59:04 PM PST by Perdogg (I'm on a no Carb diet- NO Christie Ayotte Romney or Bush - stay outta da Bushes)
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To: yldstrk

I’m not a Pats fan, I don’t like Belichick and I will be rooting for the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, so it pains me to say that you really do have to respect Belichick for how smart and relentless he is in his desire to win for the Patriots.


8 posted on 01/28/2015 4:00:01 PM PST by vbmoneyspender (But of course)
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To: Veggie Todd
 photo daily_picdump_1724_640_87_zps4706a17d.jpg
9 posted on 01/28/2015 4:01:41 PM PST by SkyDancer
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To: acapesket

I agree, set up and total bee ess from the git go


10 posted on 01/28/2015 4:02:00 PM PST by yldstrk
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To: SkyDancer

LOLOLOLOL.


11 posted on 01/28/2015 4:02:36 PM PST by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: vbmoneyspender

Regardless of how he does it ....


12 posted on 01/28/2015 4:02:39 PM PST by SkyDancer
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To: vbmoneyspender

Belichick is a great coach and manager. No question. His past record speaks for itself.

That is not an endorsement of his team over my Seahawks, however

Go Hawks!


13 posted on 01/28/2015 4:03:39 PM PST by llevrok (I fear the US government more than I do al Qaeda)
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To: tinyowl
Sound like you're a tree guy instead of a forest guy. Here is a chart that lays out the fumble rate for NFL teams since 2010. The team on the far right is the Patriots See Link


14 posted on 01/28/2015 4:05:00 PM PST by vbmoneyspender (But of course)
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To: Perdogg

“If he such a genius how did he blow Super Bowl XLII? It was poor coaching that lost that game.”

Can’t win ‘em all.

.


15 posted on 01/28/2015 4:05:14 PM PST by Mears (awesome.)
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To: vbmoneyspender

Go Pats! :)


16 posted on 01/28/2015 4:05:23 PM PST by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: acapesket

roger didnt become commissioner until 6 years after the ray lewis incident,
but dont let facts get in your way.


17 posted on 01/28/2015 4:05:30 PM PST by Palio di Siena
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To: vbmoneyspender

Go Hawks!


18 posted on 01/28/2015 4:08:49 PM PST by Gator113 (Cruz, Lee, and Sessions speak for me.... most anyone else is just noise.)
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To: Mears

True. However, to prove my point I will provide Exhibit A, The Patriots Penultimate drive (the drive the put the Pats up late in the Fourth Qrt.
)
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200802030nwe.htm

Refer to the drive chart, noting the position on the field and time usage.


19 posted on 01/28/2015 4:10:58 PM PST by Perdogg (I'm on a no Carb diet- NO Christie Ayotte Romney or Bush - stay outta da Bushes)
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To: vbmoneyspender
GO! PATRIOTS!
20 posted on 01/28/2015 4:12:47 PM PST by maddog55
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