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Why the Blizzard Forecast Missed Its Mark
Wall Street Journal via MSN ^ | 1/27/15 | Robert Lee Hotz

Posted on 01/27/2015 4:56:02 PM PST by Libloather

National Weather Service experts misjudged the path and impact of the blizzard that struck the Northeast on Monday and Tuesday, in large part because they trusted the wrong forecasting model, several independent meteorologists said.

Rather than rely on their own forecasting system—upgraded in recent weeks—the federal experts placed their faith instead on a well-regarded European computer model that predicted the worst of this storm would squarely hit New York City. That system earlier had outperformed the U.S. forecasting system in predicting the path of superstorm Sandy.

This time, the European forecasting model was wrong, several commercial forecasters said. That model, one of four complex computer simulations normally used to calculate weather patterns along the Eastern seaboard, predicted that the heaviest snow would fall between 50 and 100 miles farther west than actually occurred. Still, it correctly calculated the broader outlines of the blizzard. As predicted, the storm pounded parts of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine, with winds in excess of 50 mph and snow in some locales up to 30 inches deep.

(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Extended News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: blizzard; climatechange; forecast; globalwarming
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To: miss marmelstein

Wish I were you! It’s still snowing here and I have near 30 inches of global warming surrounding me… but just another day in New England.
Never fell for all the hype… you can smell the snow when it is coming..
i Had a strong sense on Saturday night when I took doggie out.


41 posted on 01/27/2015 6:07:14 PM PST by acapesket
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To: Libloather

LOL.


42 posted on 01/27/2015 6:09:22 PM PST by ScottfromNJ
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To: Libloather
Still, it correctly calculated the broader outlines of the blizzard. As predicted, the storm pounded parts of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine, with winds in excess of 50 mph and snow in some locales up to 30 inches deep.

What BS. I calculated the same and didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

43 posted on 01/27/2015 6:34:28 PM PST by VeniVidiVici ( Better a conservative teabagger than a liberal teabagee)
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To: miss marmelstein

YEARS ago, my mom got so frustrated with my dad tuning in/watching the weather on TV maybe every hour (could have been every 30 minutes - ), every day, every year, that she finally said with MUCH annoyance:
‘Why don’t you step outside and see - ???’
I bet she said this more than once -


44 posted on 01/27/2015 6:42:19 PM PST by USARightSide (S U P P O R T I N G OUR T R O O P S)
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To: Alberta's Child
That's the kind of weather forecaster I want piloting my ship!

Yep!

45 posted on 01/27/2015 6:43:42 PM PST by Finny (Thy word is a lamp unto my feet, and a light unto my path. -- Psalm 119:105)
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To: USARightSide

My dad used to go outside and see. He would stand on our covered porch next to a metal post...one day lightening hit the post next to him and jumped to the next one on the other side of him, lucky he was not fried; he did get a jolt as did my dog that was at his side. Maybe it was a good thing your dad was trying to find out on TV.


46 posted on 01/27/2015 6:46:44 PM PST by Tammy8
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To: Libloather

This sounds like just about every winter storm to hit central Alabama in my lifetime. It is rare that we don’t get hit with at least one winter storm warning every winter that turns into a big cold wet dreary day because the low cutting across the gulf didn’t follow the predicted path. All of the local weather people are on nonstop predicting snow, and all we get is rain.


47 posted on 01/27/2015 6:50:19 PM PST by yawningotter
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To: Libloather

But they can tell us with absolute certainty that “global warming” and/or “climate change” will destroy the planet in X years. Based on Dr. Mann’s “hockey stick,” and other flawless predictors, of course.


48 posted on 01/27/2015 6:53:19 PM PST by EDINVA
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To: Tammy8

Holy smokes - your dad was standing by a metal post??!
Well, perhaps now it was good Dad used the TV forecast guy to find out!

Here is southern Calif, we’ve been dancing for rain and we had a bit the other day. We stood outside before it rained and in all my life I don’t think I’ve smelled sulphur in the air more than that day.


49 posted on 01/27/2015 6:56:55 PM PST by USARightSide (S U P P O R T I N G OUR T R O O P S)
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Always watch the behaviors of various types of birds. The sky is their life force business.


50 posted on 01/27/2015 7:02:24 PM PST by USCG SimTech (Honored to serve since '71)
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To: USARightSide

Yes, our covered porch was held up by a large metal post on each side of the front. They were painted to match the frame house so though we knew they were metal I guess he just didn’t make the connection or thought it would never happen to him. My dog was totally freaked by storms after that and would hide under a bed, but my dad kept going out to watch. Sounds crazy I know but he was not killed by a storm so guess he was right.


51 posted on 01/27/2015 7:02:42 PM PST by Tammy8
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To: Libloather

There is no such thing as a “snow shower” used by “weatherpeople”-
Webster defines a shower as “a fall of RAIN”

morons.....


52 posted on 01/27/2015 7:14:12 PM PST by bunkerhill7 (re (`("The Second Amendment has no limits on firepower"-NY State Senator Kathleen A. Marchione.")))
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To: Libloather

"Good Heavens, Miss Sakimoto, you're Beautiful!"
53 posted on 01/27/2015 7:26:35 PM PST by rlmorel ("National success by the Democratic Party equals irretrievable ruin." Ulysses S. Grant)
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To: rlmorel

54 posted on 01/27/2015 7:27:36 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Libloather

Okay, so “historically” speaking, the “monster” “Nor’ Beaster” turned out to be a popcorn fart. Look at it this way, we had “historic weather forecasts” and “historic press conferences” by idiot politicians and nobody got killed.


55 posted on 01/27/2015 7:28:28 PM PST by FlingWingFlyer (When the hell do I get MY white privilege? I'm tired of busting my @$$ for a living.)
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To: Libloather

Thanks for posting that!! I love it.


56 posted on 01/27/2015 7:29:46 PM PST by Gator113 (Cruz, Lee, and Sessions speak for me.... most anyone else is just noise.)
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To: xzins

My wife and I went to a lecture at the Boston Museum of Science back around 2000, I think, where they had some bigwig from the National Weather Service talking about computer models, and how in 3-5 years, they would be able to predict weather down to city block size areas up to two weeks in advance with high accuracy.

I think of that often, and there is one word it brings to mind every time: Hubris.


57 posted on 01/27/2015 7:30:09 PM PST by rlmorel ("National success by the Democratic Party equals irretrievable ruin." Ulysses S. Grant)
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To: Libloather

It is still snowing in Red Hampshire...


58 posted on 01/27/2015 7:31:30 PM PST by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.com)
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To: VeniVidiVici
This was my side yard this morning...that is a four foot high chain link fence:

I figure we got close to 30 inches, and there was a lot of drifting. Good thing though, fluffy and dry,not heavy and wet. Big, BIG difference.

59 posted on 01/27/2015 7:33:46 PM PST by rlmorel ("National success by the Democratic Party equals irretrievable ruin." Ulysses S. Grant)
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To: Libloather
This is the same model that Joe Bastardi has been talking about over the last two months or so saying that it tends to pull predictions too far the the east and moves storms out too fast.

Joe Bastardi's Saturday Summary January 24, 2015

"Ceterum censeo 0bama esse delendam."

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)

LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

60 posted on 01/27/2015 7:35:32 PM PST by LonePalm (Commander and Chef)
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