Posted on 12/16/2014 4:17:43 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
They haven’t even been sworn in yet, but these members start off the cycle as underdogs in their quests for re-election in 2016.
Most of 2016′s initial targets are incoming Republicans, swept into office in a GOP midterm wave. They will represent districts Democrats carried with big margins in presidential election years — seats the newly minted Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben Ray Luján will probably want back. Only one vulnerable Democrat made this list.
What’s more, the window for either party to oust these freshman could close quickly. It’s easier to defeat an incumbent in their first re-election, before they solidify a stronghold on the seat.
(Excerpt) Read more at atr.rollcall.com ...
Democrats are already recruiting. The next election cycle has already begun, albeit it quietly.
Wishful thinking by Emily, a Rat 50 IQ moron from the Rat propaganda site Roll Call. How much fairy dust is in your purse, you delusional idiot?
Well they did take over either House, Senator or President in 2006 and 2008 and 2012. I wouldn’t laugh them off. I would work to ensure it doesn’t happen. I am in the minority but I don’t want Hillary as the Democratic nominee especially if we have somebody without executive experience running on our side.
“I would work to ensure it doesn’t happen.”
Couldn’t agree more. We need to work diligently to secure our conservative base in the state legislatures and governorships.
That’s where the conservative/patriot strength lies. Too many people believe that political power only resides in DC; that’s not true.
We completely control 26 states. We can start a thousand brushfires in the states we control. The criminal fascist syndicate occupying Washington has neither the manpower nor logistics to tamp out a thousand political brushfires. For every one the fascists extinguish, 10 more can flare up.
I would start by attacking the federal fascist bureaucracy by sending out hordes of state officers to eat out their substance.
They haven’t even been sworn in yet, but the Republicans have already run-up the white flag.
Lighten up Emily. You’re too high strung. The new Republicans haven’t even be sworn in yet. Geeez. Get a life, girl! Find a boyfriend or a girlfriend.
As someone back then put it, people changed their congresscritters like they changed their bed linens, and for pretty much the same reason.
So McSally’s certification was not today, it’s tomorrow, (or later today since it’s past midnight) Wednesday and she has not been pre-confirmed to be the winner although there is zero indication of any great change of the vote totals.
Now then this article
I’m glad this witch at least mentions ONE of our targets. We have plenty of potential targets. We need to go on the offensive to mitigate any possible rat gains, and we should not concede any rat gains, we need to make 2016 a 2008 in reverse (our potential gains are certainly much more limited than the rats were in 2008, but we CAN make gains, yes we can).
#1 is Ex RINO traitor turned rat Brad Ashford in Nebraska-2,
2)Gwen Graham in Florida-2, she’ll be harder to beat but we gotta ice her now before she gets entrenched and runs for higher office with her daddy’s name. It’s a very polarized but Republican leaning seat. Neither side will see a large margin of victory.
3)Patrick Murphy in marginally GOP Florida 18 (carried by Romney), he easily won reelection this year over a terrible candidate.
Others in no particular order, maybe I missed a few or am a little too optimistic on some
4)Ann Kirkpatrick AZ-1, witch is a hard target but that’s a slightly GOP seat.
5)Collin Peterson in MN-7, now the proud owner of the most Republican seat in the country to have a rat. He just took our best shot and survived with little trouble so we probably won’t beat him but the slow death of ticket splitting means I won’t rule it out. Or maybe the jerk will retire.
6)Louise Slaughter in NY-25. This seat leans so far rat that it fell over and broke it’s butt. But the witch has now almost lost 2 elections in a row.
7)AZ-9, Kyrsten Sinema, a strong candidate could beat her, and there is the possibility of re-re-districting, I think there is a court case
8)CA-52, Scott Peters, 46% Romney, that queer Republican DeMaio would have won if not for a made up sex-scandal. An STD-free Republican can win.
9)CA-36, 47.5% Romney, Raul Ruiz won a 2nd term 54%-46% over a bad candidate while every other competitive Cali-seat, all of them less Republican than this one, had an even closer race.
10)CA-7, Ami Bera, 47% Romney this dude “beat” RINO retread Doug Ose after a “slight readjustment” of votes.
11)MN-8, Rick Nolan, Still dem leaning but GOP-trending seat should see another close race, harder in a POTUS year
12)MN-1, Tim Walz, I honestly think this chump could be meat if we ever found a strong candidate to run against him.
13)IL-8, her highness the sainted wounded warrior Tammy Suckworth might run for the Senate. She won by less than I expected in each of her elections against weak Republicans. We CAN win this seat whether she retires or not, with a strong candidate.
Now, on the too the vulnerable Republicans named by the witch
IA-1 Rod Blum, 56% Obama. Very vulnerable.
NV-4, Crecent Hardy, 54% Obama, Nevada needs to re-re-district, period.
NY-24 John Kakto, 57%!!!! Obama, most democrat district to elect a Republican (IL-10 maybe slightly more Obama but he had inflated numbers due to home field advantage) this dude won by 20 points!! I was shocked. I am not prepared to say he “starts as an underdog”. Republicans hold a few State Sen districts in NY that went as heavy Obama.
ME-2 Bruce Polquin, he’ll be tip top target of course, but Maine is a quirky state. Not prepared to call him an underdog either, up yours Emily Cahn.
http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2016-greg-walden-house-republicans-plans/?dcz=
NRCC Chairman Greg Walden named him some targets and key defense seats last month
Defense seats he named were, Hardy, Frank Guinta in NH-1 (I agree NH worries me), and Bob Dold (IL-10), with Hilly or whoever not doing as well as Obama in IL I think RINO Dold will be ok.
For attack he named, Kirkpatrick, Ashford, and Peterson
s name. It
Who cares? It’s just a sideshow to distract the people while the regime takes more and more. Nothing changes in Versailles on the Potomac except the faces and the level of corruption.
The half-breed wants to change laws he doesn’t like? Fine, I’ll just change a few of my own. No more income tax. Huge penalties for employers who hire illegals. Term limits.
You said: “...that queer Republican DeMaio would have won if not for a made up sex-scandal. An STD-free Republican can win...”
hehehehehehehehehehe!!!! YEAH! No queers, no Herpes!
> swept into office in a GOP midterm wave. They will represent districts Democrats carried with big margins in presidential election years
And they haven’t been sworn in yet, haven’t voted for anything yet, but will be excoriated by the Demagogic Party online trolls because they didn’t try to stop the Cromnibus.
Esty CT-5
don’t write it off. plenty more to look at. No top targets ... what were the 30 closest races GOP lost?
CT-5, sure, second most GOP seat in New England in POTUS voting.
Closest losses? You are speaking my language, I make a list every year. Lots in CA, mostly weak and underfunded Republicans who nearly won anyway, we can probably forget most of those. Some good targets like FL-18 and AZ-9 were not close.
MD-6, 0.2 Stolen
NY-25, 0.4
CA-7, 0.8 Stolen
FL-2, 0.8 Could be legit, too close to rule out stolen
CA-16, 1.4 Stolen from feel good underdog Republican
MN-8, 1.4
NY-18, 1.6 Forgot this one
NE-2, 2.6
CA 26, 2.6 Possibly Stolen
CA 32, 3.2 Margin was a LOT smaller before “adjustment”
CA 31, 3.4
HI-1,, 3.8 Heartbreaker, FU Hawaii
CA-24, 3.8
CA-9, 4.8
AZ-1, 5.0
IA-2, 5.0 Tough nut
CA-3, 5.4
MO-5, 6.6 Close in a GOP landslide, unlikely gain
CT-5, 7.0
IL-11, 7.0 I’m bearish unless it’s open
CT-4, 7.4 The other competitive CT seat
CA-36, 8.4 Highest Romney % of CA Rat held seat
MN-7, 8.6 Most GOP rat held seat, least liberal rat
MN-1, 8.6
NY-3, 9.0
WA-10, 9.2
NH-2, 10.0 Marylinda :(
WA-1, 10.0
MA-10, 10.0
CO-7, 10.0
All races 10 points or less added up to exactly 30.
Fun question, if you pick just one House race that you could magically have put in the GOP column, which one would you pick?
For me I’d say FL-2, because of the danger Gwen Graham could pose statewide. Runner up MN-8, I think we’d have a much better chance of holding it in 2016 then taking it.
Changing gears, I was just looking at the statewide county by county results in CA. While this top primary 2 crap is unconstitutional and doesn’t seem to be positive for us I do like how it streamlines the results.
Now Pete this will tick you off. You’ve probably gleaned that my opinion of “conservative” democrats is that we should shoot them in the head instead of the liver like the rest of the party. But when an election gives you lemons, make lemonade, it might be crappy, very lightly sweetened lemonade but that’s still better than sucking on a lemon.
The race CA Superintendent of Public Instruction was between 2 rats, incumbent Tom Torlakson a 30+ year veteran of elective office and Marshall Tuck. As an officially “non-partisan” (what a laugh) race no party names appeared on the ballot. Torlakson is a whore for the teacher’s unions.
At least one GOP consultant endorsed Tuck.
http://www.theblaze.com/contributions/in-california-a-democrat-to-support-in-november/
And Daily Kos hated him.
In the closest statewide race, Torlakson won 52%-48%
http://vote2014.sos.ca.gov/returns/maps/superintendent-of-public-instruction/
You can see Tuck won most, but not all of the GOP counties, and by smaller margins than the Republican Ashley Swearengin, who got 46% in the race for Controller.
http://vote2014.sos.ca.gov/returns/maps/controller/
However he did much better in the rat counties than she did, losing LA county by little more than a point. If those GOP counties gave him the same support they gave Ashley Swearengin, he wins.
that is a fascinating race for the analysts to study. many GOP voters left their vote blank rather than vote for Tuck.
7 million votes cast for Controller, only 6 million for Schools race. It shows that theory of trying 2 Dems in a heavy Dem district ... that the Dems aren’t concerned about that scenario playing out very often. Over a period of years, the voting behavior of GOP voters may gradually get used to the idea. But not before redistricting changes the entire situation.
Let’s look at the 16 seats we took from the rats, the rats winning margin 2 years ago, and when they had last elected a Republican. It will be noted which voted for Romney and which were open seats.
NV-4 (D) (8.0) was a new seat in 2012
5 were takebacks of 2010 gains that rats took back in 2012, some of these are very promiscuous districts that keep going back into to abusive relationships.
FL-26 (10.6) GOP Scandal was a bigger factor than Obama coattails
IL-10 (1.0) Pure coattails.
NY-24 (4.6)
(Also won by the same rat in 08 as in 12)
NH-1 (3.7) Straight ticket voting in NH
(Also won by rats in 06 and 08 by the same rat as in 12)
TX-23 (4.8) Voted for Romney, was an inexcusable loss.
(Also won by the rats in 06 [runoff] and 08)
This seat last went GOP in 08, and was taken by the rats in the Dede Scuzzobama special in 09 when it’s loser member became Osama’s Army Secretary.
NY-21 (2.0 Open)
These 2 last went GOP in 04 and were lost in 06.
AZ-2 (0.84) (Last GOPer Jim Kolbe Retired)
IA-1 (15.2%! Open)(Last GOPer Jim Nussle ran for Governor)
GA-12 (7.4) last went GOP in 2002 when it was a new seat that was supposed to go rat but they nominated a Black dude with ethical problems, it’s been significantly altered twice since then. Voted for Romney.
NY-1 (4.4) last went GOP in 2000 when Felix Grucci took it after party switching traitor Mikey Forbes lost the rat primary to a no name after a GOP effort to make that happen.
UT-4 (0.2 Open) Technically a new seat for 2012, but Matheson was first elected in 2000 to his old seat. Big time for Romney.
ME-2 (16.2!!! Open) One of our 1994 loses, last GOP in 1992 (Olympia Snowe!)!!
WV-3 (7.8)
The eastern part of this district last elected a Republican in 1956, the Southern extremity in 1930, and other portions in 1926. Big time for Romney.
IL-12 (8.6) Last time the St. Clair county based seat went GOP was in 1942!!!
NC-7 (An eyelash, Open) Southeastern NC last elected a non-rat when it elected a Populist (Fusion vote with GOP) in 1896 (the district stenched to Charlotte at that time). It last elected an actual Republican in 1878, (Fusion vote with Greenback Party), 1868 was the last time a Republican won without fusion. Voted for Romney.
And the 17th non-voting America Samoa Delegate seat had never elected a Republican before (1980-). The same rat beat the same Republican by 21.4 points in 2012. He lost this time cause if rumors he is ill.
Correction, Utah seat was a 1.2% margin 2 years ago, not 0.2.
Oh and IL-10 and FL-26 were Republican before 2010 of course. Errors.
i just read article ... only mentions 4 GOP frosh. Not much of a list by Emily ...
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