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North Carolina poll: Ben Carson leads GOP field with 19%, leads Biden by four head to head
Hotair ^ | 12/16/2014 | AllahPundit

Posted on 12/16/2014 6:32:46 AM PST by SeekAndFind

Sounds impressive until you realize that Biden’s currently rocking two percent of the vote nationally in a Democratic primary involving Hillary and Elizabeth Warren. Speaking of which, Ben Carson against Hillary in North Carolina: Dead even at 44, which is two points better than Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee do against her.

The Romney/Carson last-men-standing primary debate before Super Tuesday will be epic, my friends.

Ben Carson leads the way for the Republicans with 19% to 15% for Jeb Bush, 14% each for Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee, 11% for Paul Ryan, 7% for Rick Perry, 5% each for Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, and 4% for Marco Rubio…

At least at this very early stage it looks like North Carolina will yet again be a swing state in 2016 if Clinton is indeed the Democrat nominee. She is very closely matched with all of her potential Republican opponents, leading Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie each by 2 points at 46/44 and 44/42 respectively, while tying Bush and Carson at 46% and 44% respectively. Those numbers show there isn’t a big electability difference between the Republican candidates at least at this point. We also tested Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren in head to head match ups with Bush and Carson, and they fare a good bit worse than Clinton. Biden trails Bush 47/42 and Carson 45/40, while Warren trails Bush 46/39 and Carson 44/37.

The fact that Carson is even registering in these polls, let alone leading them, is amazing. How’s he doing that? I’m tempted to say it’s because of his appearances on Fox News over the past year but Huckabee’s gotten a lot more airtime on FNC than Carson has and he’s a few points behind. There must be a strong grassroots effort there by the “Draft Ben Carson” PAC to drum up interest. That’s not surprising, if so — Vernon Robinson, the group’s political director, knows the state well as a NC native — but the fact that that grassroots outreach is working as well as it is does surprise me.

Now, you tell me. Who’s most likely to suffer from the Carson boomlet? Note the “very conservative” column:

gopnc

Ted Cruz at nine percent while Carson is at 18? Given that Jeb Bush(!) and Mike Huckabee(!!) are outpolling him among the same demographic, let’s chalk that up to “very conservative” voters merely not knowing Cruz well enough yet to form an opinion rather than actively passing him over. Still, though — they know Ben Carson well enough to form an opinion? Huh.

This caught my eye too. Which number jumps out?

bcage

The only candidate to register above 20 percent in any age group is Carson, who pulls a quarter of senior citizens. Presumably they’re a key target of the “Draft Ben Carson” group, which makes sense — Carson spends a lot of time talking about faith and opposing political correctness and there’s no age group more comprehensively socially conservative than seniors. Some of that support will fade as the rest of the field starts campaigning and other candidates land on voters’ radars, but again, it’s instructive to look at Huckabee here. He’s a known quantity, having run for president once before and spent years with his own show on Fox. There’s no major politician in the country who’s spent more effort polishing his brand as a social conservative. And yet Carson’s nearly 10 points ahead of him among a group that should be easy pickings for Huck. (Huckabee is second among senior citizens behind Carson, in fact.) I still think Carson’s a single-digit candidate when everything shakes out, but could he play spoiler for a more formidable social con in the race like Huck or Cruz? A few months ago I’d have said “no way.” Let’s revise that down now to “probably not.”

One more data point. Of the four GOP candidates polled — Carson, Huckabee, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie — only one of them has a favorable rating among fellow Republicans north of 65 percent. Ahem:

huck

Good lord. Mike Huckabee won the war on women, at least in North Carolina.

Here’s Carson reaching out to his would-be base in a segment last week for David Brody and CBN.

CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE VIDEO



TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: North Carolina
KEYWORDS: 2016; bencarson; gop; northcarolina
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1 posted on 12/16/2014 6:32:46 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Isn’t Carson a gun grabber?


2 posted on 12/16/2014 6:34:24 AM PST by circlecity
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To: circlecity

RE: Isn’t Carson a gun grabber?

He is “evolving” on the issue.


3 posted on 12/16/2014 6:35:52 AM PST by SeekAndFind (If at first you don't succeed, put it out for beta test.)
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To: SeekAndFind

leading Joe Biden?

Now there’s a stunning bellwether


4 posted on 12/16/2014 6:36:52 AM PST by silverleaf (Age takes a toll: Please have exact change)
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To: SeekAndFind

Hey, let’s play this tune again!

It goes something like this:
[everybody sing]

Let’s run 6 conservative candidates,
and let the “leadership” run their guy.
We split the votes!
They get the Nom!
Yeah!


5 posted on 12/16/2014 6:38:20 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: SeekAndFind

Sentimentality over substance.


6 posted on 12/16/2014 6:38:22 AM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: SeekAndFind
The fact that Carson is even registering in these polls, let alone leading them, is amazing. How’s he doing that?

I'll field that question.

We have paid pollsters trying to take down the real conservative leader, Ted Cruz.

7 posted on 12/16/2014 6:39:44 AM PST by FreeReign
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To: SeekAndFind
I don't trust Ben Carson. If he wanted to be president, he should've run for a seat in the HOR or US Senate. Then we'd be able to see if (1) he can win an election and (2) he'd actually vote constitutional conservative.

He seems to be an "attractive distractor" to divert votes from proven constitutional conservative candidates.

8 posted on 12/16/2014 6:40:01 AM PST by grania
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To: MrB
Hey, let’s play this tune again! It goes something like this: [everybody sing] Let’s run 6 conservative candidates, and let the “leadership” run their guy. We split the votes! They get the Nom! Yeah!

That's why the RINOs and Dems are pushing Carson at this point.

Thus the poll.

9 posted on 12/16/2014 6:41:02 AM PST by FreeReign
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To: SeekAndFind

This is ridiculous. If Carson was White, he’d be just another slightly right of center guy. His positions are not all that profound, and he is no friend to the second amendment. The Republicans don’t need a “Magic Negro”. If the man has the right stuff, then that’s great. Carson does not have the right stuff.


10 posted on 12/16/2014 6:42:40 AM PST by bk1000 (A clear conscience is a sure sign of a poor memory)
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To: SeekAndFind

A lot of these pollsters will be pushing candidates like Carson or Santorum. They want to use candidates that have ZERO chance to split conservatives votes so that we end up with someone like Jeb.

Worked for McCain and Romney.


11 posted on 12/16/2014 6:47:43 AM PST by boycott
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To: SeekAndFind

He lost support from me when he said cops should shoot to wound when confronted with a feral yute seeking to kill the cop.


12 posted on 12/16/2014 7:00:21 AM PST by Graybeard58 (1Timothy, 5: For there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus)
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To: SeekAndFind

Also in the poll you will notice that Carson finishes 2nd behind Christy among the VERY LIBERAL.

Once his gun-grabber history is well known he will fall to * status in polls.


13 posted on 12/16/2014 7:06:19 AM PST by Beagle8U (If illegal aliens are undocumented immigrants, then shoplifters are undocumented customers.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Another Carson ‘push piece’.

We also see them for Huckabee, JBush, Santorum, Romney, et al.

==

Until wannabes actually start announcing [throwing their hats into the ring], these ‘polls’ and articles are little more than propaganda trying to push a specific name.


14 posted on 12/16/2014 7:10:09 AM PST by TomGuy
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To: SeekAndFind
I can't fathom anybody considering voting for nutjob Joe Biden. Any person who would do this is a fool in every sense of the word.
15 posted on 12/16/2014 7:10:41 AM PST by 4yearlurker (Some people say that experts agree!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I would stay home before I’d vote for Carson.....


16 posted on 12/16/2014 7:12:25 AM PST by kjam22 (my music video "If My People" at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74b20RjILy4)
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To: SeekAndFind
Dr Ben Carson is a worthy candidate for POTUS. His uplifting positive message of hard work, self reliance and faith in God is greatly needed.

He is the perfect antidote to the dark, miserable, sinister, depressing, hopeless message of the Obama Leftists.

Dr Carson is a shining and unimpeachable example of the American Dream!

17 posted on 12/16/2014 7:15:04 AM PST by Awgie (truth is always stranger than fiction)
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To: grania

FoxNews Alert:

JBush has announced that he is forming an exploratory team.

==

Translation: He is running.


18 posted on 12/16/2014 7:16:36 AM PST by TomGuy
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To: TomGuy

translation translation bush family connection to Saudi oil money.


19 posted on 12/16/2014 7:17:37 AM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Beagle8U
Once his gun-grabber history is well known he will fall to * status in polls.

Newsmax TV was advertising a piece about Carson. It said that Carson was a reformed 'radical'. [I don't have Newsmax TV, so I only heard that promo.]

I would want to know more about Carson's 'radical' history.
20 posted on 12/16/2014 7:18:17 AM PST by TomGuy
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