Iowa Caucuses: 2016 opening odds

Washington Times ^ | 11/18/2014 | Steve Deace

[iowamark]

The main event is finally here. The race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is now underway.

This is shaping up to be the strongest field of Republican challengers in recent memory. After the GOP’s strong showing in the 2014 midterms, the list of those who sense an opportunity, and want to seize it to run in 2016, is both long and distinguished. While the Democrat presidential primary is essentially Hillary Clinton (their 2008 also-ran) or bust, the Republicans have a deep bench of potential standard-bearers...

Though it may seem early to some to already be posting odds on the Iowa Caucuses, keep in mind we are less than 14 months away from Iowans casting the first official ballots of the 2016 presidential election. Below are my opening odds...

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: 2-1 The former caucus champion is the opening favorite because he has two things going for him that matter in Iowa — he’s socially conservative and Iowans like him.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz: 4-1 He has the backing of the activists and has the best chance to put the long-dormant Reagan coalition back together again.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 5-1 He’s a repeated winner in a blue state, and has enough establishment and conservative credentials to put the George W. Bush coalition from 2000 back together again.

Dr. Ben Carson: 10-1 He already has a campaign chairman in each of Iowa’s 99 counties, and Iowans ask me about his potential candidacy more than any other. There are a lot of people who want Dr. Carson to sell them on his bid.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul: 15-1...

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum: 20-1

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal: 25-1

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio: 30-1

[matthew fuller]

I agree with the author on the first four, and downgrade Santorum to last place in the second four. Otherwise, I agree with him.

[C. Edmund Wright]

He’s deep into the Huckabee kool aid. Huck is going no where.

[C. Edmund Wright]

maybe NH picked the nominee, but they picked losers. The only time the GOP wins is when the SC winner gets the nomination.

[C. Edmund Wright]

How in the world can you say Huck is 2-1 and Santorum is 20-1. They are the same candidate, they attract the exact same voters.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Huckatorum / Santuckabee PING

[nathanbedford]

This analysis does not undertake to analyze organization or money, perhaps because it is too early but until we see how the characters are actually playing it will remain too early to judge.

Based on what I see now, it looks like Ted Cruz and Scott Walker are the two front runners.

[octex]

Iowa picked total duds in 2008 and 2012.
***********************************
They need to abandon that antiquated caucus system! It permits voters to intimidate each other, face to face, and suffer the wrath of one side or the other if they vote in a way that’s different from the bullies.

No Huck, Jeb, Rand, Marc or Bobby (the last two are not eligible, anyway, as their parents were foreign citizens when they were born).

[Eric in the Ozarks]

You’d think Iowegians would demand more for their $3.8 million/year.

[Servant of the Cross]

They are the same candidate, they attract the exact same voters.

Smug? Check. Perpetually whiny? Check. Big government? Check. Smarmy? Check. Panders to the SocCons? Big Time!

IOWA! Wake the hell up!

[Servant of the Cross]

Fred Thompson defines the Huckaboob in 2008 GOP POTUS debate ....

The direction Governor Huckabee would take us in … liberal economic policies … liberal foreign policies … taxpayer funded programs for illegals … that’s not the model of the Reagan coalition, that’s the model of the democratic party.

[C. Edmund Wright]

...you forgot this one....

Appeals mainly to self righteous but unsophisticated voters? CHECK and DOUBLE CHECK.

[Servant of the Cross]

Based on what I see now, it looks like Ted Cruz and Scott Walker are the two front runners.

I Second That Emotion

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Before “Hawkeyes,” what was the football team’s name ?

[HereInTheHeartland]

Huckabee?

Not a chance

[matthew fuller]

I think that Huck and Rick S. are as you say “cut from the same cloth” but Santorum comes across as a teenager, not mature enough for the job, IMHO.

[C. Edmund Wright]

I think that Huck and Rick S. are as you say “cut from the same cloth” but Santorum comes across as a teenager, not mature enough for the job, IMHO.

Well I think both men are absolute jokes as Presidential candidates - neither are of that timber or talent, not to mention they are both very bad on conservative issues outside the social realm. But my bigger point is that they get the same Iowa voters - that 30% of the Hawkeye Cauceye that is hell bent (or Heaven bent) on voting for the guy who simply talks about abortion and gay marriage the most....period.

Those voters will split - and Cruz will siphon some off too - although he's got much more talent and potential on conservatism overall than either of these pretenders ever thought about having. And yes, RS is a petulant little bitch boy.

[matthew fuller]

My opinion of their relative Iowa chances in no way reflects my preferences. Right now I’m leaning toward Ted Cruz as my preference.

[C. Edmund Wright]

That is the best way to lean.....and no, I didn’t read the Huck/Santorum comments as your preference.

[Servant of the Cross]

And yes, RS is a petulant little bitch boy.

"Hey you! I resemble that remark!"

[xjcsa]

The Paultards always stack the deck in IA.

With respect, you don't know what you're talking about. They got run out of the party leadership last year, and Ron Paul finished 3rd in the 2012 caucuses.