Posted on 10/30/2014 1:36:09 PM PDT by Laissez-faire capitalist
In a poll released Wednesday by the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group [Link at URL], Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) holds a commanding lead with early voters in Iowa's open Senate race compraed to his Republican opponent Joni Ernst. While the poll shows the race to be a dead heat, which is consistent with recent polling [Link at URL], Braley holds an impressive 15-point lead with those who have already voted. The poll also shows that Braley has a 10-point lead with independent voters.
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(Excerpt) Read more at politicususa.com ...
From the linked article:
“Among those who either have already voted or are likely to vote, 47% are for Bruce Braley and 47% are for Joni Ernst. The remaining respondents either express a preference for someone else or decline to state a preference.”
Gwjack
No they don’t count the votes from early votes or release totals before election night.
This sort of poll is talking about how many registered voters of each party have returned ballots so far, not specifically who they voted for.
2004, early afternoon on Election Day, Mr "Ready for Duty" John F Kerry was the undefinable winner for President. All the MSM were agog and ecstatic that the evil Bush had been trimmed to the trunk. Obviously, it was all over but for the completion of the victory.
Hmmm ... something happened on the way to that victory, and here I smell the same eagerness for the 'unbiased' MSM faves to win!
Why post this Obama Offal. The following is a excerpt from the pollster’s home page.
“While we enjoyed much success in 2006—helping to unseat an incumbent senator, governor, and a number of House members, among many other victories—Garin-Hart-Yang has a strong record of helping Democratic candidates win under the most difficult circumstances, as well.”
Obama says...............suck my
If it were up to me, I would:
1. eliminate or severely restrict early voting and mail in ballots. This has gotten out of hand. Originally absentee and mail ballots were for people who were out of town, or were elderly or handicapped.
2. require all parts of the state to report their results at the same time, without anyone else knowing how the vote was coming in from other areas of the state. This would help eliminate holding back returns until you see how many votes you need to report for a candidate to put him/her over the top.
3. Have accountability and chain of custody requirements for all ballots and voting machines. Require that they all be turned in at the same time. If not turned in, then the votes won’t be counted. This would eliminate these long recounts lasting weeks, in which someone discovers a bag of ballots forgotten about in a car trunk, long after election day.
This is just off the top of my head. Other changes should probably be made too, to ensure integrity of our elections.
The news report says that the sample size was 800+, which is large enough to be reasonably accurate. It does not mention that only 28% of respondents had already voted, which means that the sample size there was only 225 - which is not large enough to be meaningful.
I’m also wondering about the concern troll angle of this poster. Their posts on Ferguson have certainly been interesting.
The article is not reporting an actual vote count, they are reporting results from a poll of 802 people, by a fly-by-night sounding polling outfit, the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group.
Some unreported number out of those 802 responded that they had already voted, and apparently the Dem had a 15 point lead among them. This is just too easy to cook the way you want it by sampling more Dems, or in a more heavily Dem area, or by just throwing out enough Repub responses.
I give this about zero percent credibility.
There’s no indication amidst all that leftist crowing as to how the survey was conducted.. nothing about methodologies, etc. I suspect this little crackpot outfit slammed a survey together using “Survey Monkey,” posted it online and told their mush-minded followers to respond. That’s about as “scientific” as that scam called “global warming.”
Well, RFK Jr. had an explanation for what happened in 2004: Bush stole the election. Apparently there were long lines to vote in one of the college towns in Ohio so Bush won Ohio and with it the election.
If they cheat in elections, they cheat in polls as to demoralize the opposition. It’s a classic psy-ops. Ernst should come out with a fake poll of her own.
Please go out and VOTE. My wife and I live in a highly Republican City and County but we are going out to VOTE right now. I am 3 weeks out from Hip Replacement Surgery but I will make it with help of my cane.
All Republicans get out and Vote and Pray for an outcome to save America.
The words “Whopping” and “Whopper” are racist!
—Anthony J. Soprano
Just moved to Iowa from the Republic of Cook County and all I can report so far is that Iowans are truly a strange bunch politically. It’s all about ethanol subsidies, just like it’s all about public pensions and patronage in Illinois. Third-rail mentality. I don’t think half of the farmers even know what they are growing but they don’t want it messed with eithet.
It is odd isn’t it?
Early voting should be aligned with the general polling, 15 points is a large discrepancy - unless all the other polls are wrong. If non early voting isn’t statistically inline with early voting, something is fraudulent.
Hopefully the GOP’s not just aiming to be ahead by one seat in the Senate. I could see Angus King switching parties just like he just switched his endorsement and is now behind the dem candidate and no longer behind the “independent” one.
Yep.
I hate hate hate early voting. It is nothing but an invitation to cheat and steal elections.
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