Posted on 10/23/2014 10:25:36 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
Republicans are 66 percent favorites to win a Senate majority, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast. New polls confirmed GOP advantages in Arkansas and Colorado, and a generic ballot survey from AP-GfK found Republicans up 8 percentage points — an unusually large lead.
But — as I’ve written before — there’s a good chance we won’t know who controls the next Senate when the sun rises on Nov. 5.
As of Tuesday’s model run, there is a 53 percent chance we’ll be able to project Senate control near Nov. 4; 47 percent of the time, the midterms go to overtime. It’s basically a coin flip.
Republicans have a 38 percent chance of securing the majority near Nov. 4. Democrats have only a 15 percent chance.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
I agree. There is a good chance the Democrats have already stole enough elections to keep the Senate.
What’s the Las Vegas betting line?
Why don’t the conservative-controlled areas refuse to reveal their numbers until all the counting is done? Whoever blinks first loses and we always blink!!
Kansas, South Dakota, Georgia and Louisiana seem to be the key contests now. What did Mike Rounds do to put a formerly “sure thing” into doubt in South Dakota?
Biggest surprise = Dims winning in Mississippi as Mississippians have long memories.
Motor-voter, early voting, same-day registration, blocking voter roll updates, vote-by-mail, Voter ID law suits, etc. gives the DEMs a 5-7% advantage in key districts around the country. The GOP has to overcome fraud which is getting more difficult every cycle.
Plus, if the GOP wins a slim majority in the Senate look for a few RINO defections keeping Dingy Harry in charge.
That’s a good question.
I used to watch Intrade, but it’s gone now.
The GOP could have slowed down fraud if they’d just taken it seriously in the first place. Now the rats don’t care if you see them cheat, they only care that they get away with it.
Actually I'm pleasantly surprised to find that the demographics of my new town and the ones surrounding me lean conservative. I live in Fairfield county.
Look for McConnell, should he win, to offer to reinstate the old rules that gives more power to the minority party and to offer the Democrats some sort of “power-sharing deal”
Apparently there are accusations that he used his office to gain lucrative employment for an aide in return for the rewarding of a state contract.
I recall very clearly when Trent Lott and Bill Frist were majority leaders while we had a GOP Congress and W. Bush in the WH.
We had basically a 55-45 majority in. The senate after the 2002 elections, and Bush still couldn’t fill many vacancies in the circuit courts.
The gang of 12 (or whatever it was) managed to get a few “controversial” nominees (those who would abide by the Constitution- like Janice Rogers Brown) through, but when he left office there were a crap load of vacancies because the GOP played nice.
Now we have Reid ramming every leftist nominee straight down our throats, which is why I believe 8-9 circuits now have a majority appointed by dems.
It also explains why so many same sex marriage “bans” are being struck down.
I’m not hopeful of what a GOP majority will do, but the alternative is simply worse.
We conservatives have very few friends in Washington- “the self licking ice cream cone” as I heard it put recently.
FWIW, I was raised in North Dakota and understand we have higher standards there, sometimes even for Democrats.
BS
The only reason any poll would be saying KY is tied now is because the “mechanisms” must be in place to assure the victory, i.e., cheating.
Will there be 51 firm GOP senators on the morning of November 5th? Louisiana and Georgia will both probably have runoff elections. Wouldn’t be surprised if a couple other states go to recounts in which we won’t know the winner for weeks after election day.
I’m not hopeful of what a GOP majority will do, but the alternative is simply worse.
A bipartisan veneer to the end of the Age of Obama would be worse than what we have now. The Senate GOP leadership has no interest in substantively engaging Obama.
Does Obama really need Reid if the GOP “opposition” leader is happy to fully fund the Obama agenda in the lame duck session?
Like I said I don’t expect much from them either way.
The one thing a big GOP gain could help is to help offset the losses anticipated by a tough senate GOP map in two years.
If we net like 8 seats and win back the WH in 2016 then the number could matter.
“Plus, if the GOP wins a slim majority in the Senate look for a few RINO defections keeping Dingy Harry in charge.”
It is more likely that two RAT senators will flip to GOP, ME and WV. They have already been talking about doing exactly that.
Republicans will lose all overtimes. The Al Franken debacle proves that.
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