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Win or lose, the outcome of this election is on the GOP establishment
theweek.com ^ | 9/23/14 | W. James Antle III

Posted on 09/23/2014 5:16:12 AM PDT by cotton1706

There's no blaming the Tea Party if the party falls short in November

Are the pollsters just trolling us pundits now? Just as a consensus emerged this summer that Republicans were probably going to capture the Senate, a new round of polling was released showing a Democratic rebound in several key races. But the new received wisdom that Democrats were probably going to hold the Senate barely had time to harden before polls emerged that were more favorable to Republicans. Now the prognosticators give the GOP a better-than-even shot of seizing the Senate.

Despite the pendulum-like conventional wisdom on which party will control the Senate come 2015, at least a couple things are abundantly clear. First, Republicans will gain Senate seats in November. And secondly, this GOP-friendly election cycle rests on the Republican establishment, not the Tea Party.

This isn't 2010. Unmistakably, in essentially all the competitive Senate races, the party leadership has gotten the nominees it wanted.

Mitch McConnell vowed the party would "crush" the Senate Conservatives Fund's candidates everywhere. He certainly crushed his own primary challenger, Matt Bevin. Lindsey Graham flattened a field of upstart conservatives in South Carolina. Thom Tillis in North Carolina similarly avoided even a runoff against his main Tea Party rival, Greg Brannon.

The list goes on: Pat Roberts easily dispatched Milton Wolf in Kansas. Scott Brown won his primary in New Hampshire. Establishment Republicans got their man in David Perdue in Georgia. James Lankford won in Oklahoma.

In Mississippi, Thad Cochran did end up having to fight conservative challenger Chris McDaniel in a runoff after actually winning fewer votes in the first round of balloting. But Cochran got the majority when it counted.

(Excerpt) Read more at theweek.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections
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Of course, they'll still blame us if they lose, for being against them, for primarying their canidates, for depleting their funds, and for not voting for the selected slate of candidates.

Conservatives will ALWAYS be to blame, so they can marginalize and "crush" us. But we're not going anywhere!

1 posted on 09/23/2014 5:16:12 AM PDT by cotton1706
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To: cotton1706

The premise of this piece is right on the money - but I think the author weakened the case with some bad examples. Perdue in Georgia and Brown in NH don’t really fit neatly into this argument, but the writer insisted on shoving them in there anyway.


2 posted on 09/23/2014 5:17:56 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (www.FireKarlRove.com NOW)
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To: cotton1706

Liberals are all the same. Obama blames Bush. The GOPe blames the conservatives. Liberals never accept blame for their defeat.


3 posted on 09/23/2014 5:22:19 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: cotton1706

From the article:

“In recent cycles, Republicans have failed to lock down the competitive Senate races they need to win. That is the difference between being in the majority or minority. And both the Tea Party and the establishment are to blame.”

For what is the Tea Party to be blamed for?


4 posted on 09/23/2014 5:25:25 AM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (Pubbies = national collectivists; Dems = international collectivists; We need a second party!)
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To: cotton1706

I love how Karl Rogue spins. He was on OReilly last night and actually said, “Thom Tillis is one of the strongest GOP candidates.”

Lolz.

Tillis who can’t escape the high 30s in a red leaning state and is losing to the biggest Obama clone, Hagan, by avg of 5 points with only 6 weeks to go.

Yes that great candidate.

Of course Rove said a couple weeks back that Gillespie was running a “perfect” campaign in the very swingy state of Virginia. Only down 30. He’s finally dropped that line. You could have run a monkey in VA and it’d be no worse off than the Gillespie. How do you lose by 30 in a Republican friendly mid term in a a state Obama won by a single point, in a Dem friendly presidential year?


5 posted on 09/23/2014 5:33:04 AM PDT by nhwingut (This tagline for lease)
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To: cotton1706

GOP Leadership....forget the squabble BS...and use the message, the money, the GOTV (Get Out the Vote) activity in overwhelming fashion!!! You fools are not getting any cash, including mine...because you are such weak sisters, when it comes to destroying the Obamabot, Democrat vermin!!!! Get a backbone....and give us a list of your top ten political priorities....if we take the Senate and House!!! Get with it, deadbeat GOPe!!!


6 posted on 09/23/2014 5:34:41 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!.)
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To: Jack Hydrazine

“For what is the Tea Party to be blamed for?”

They blame us that Mike Castle isn’t in the Senate (who would have just replaced Arlen Specter as the resident liberal republican), they blame us that Charlie Crist isn’t in the Senate (who is now a democrat), they blame us that David Dewhurst isn’t in the Senate (instead of that infernal Ted Cruz), they blame us that Bob Bennett was removed from power, they blame us that Richard Lugar was removed from power (he endorsed DEMOCRAT Michelle Nunn in GA this year), they blame us that we dared to challenge Olympia Snowe, causing her to retire, they blame us that McCain, McConnell, Murkowski, Graham, Alexander, Hatch, Bennettt, Lugar, and Cochran were all primaried, draining precious funds and causing them to go to all those rubber chicken fundraising dinners.

There is no end to Tea Party blame. But the Establishment of course, is blameless.


7 posted on 09/23/2014 5:41:00 AM PDT by cotton1706 (ThisRepublic.net)
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To: cotton1706
Say what you will, but I would hope everyone would vote R this November. If Obama keeps the Senate in his 6th year with his horrible numbers and colossal failures he'll claim he has some sort of mandate. Get Harry Reid OUT of the Majority. Pass some bills— let Obama veto everything and he can quit with the “Republicans in Congress don't do anything”. It will give us two years to find a Conservative candidate and not be painted in the Obama narrative, IMO. I don't see it as vote for the “lesser of two evils” I see it as voting against a huge evil—
Obama etc.
8 posted on 09/23/2014 5:43:52 AM PDT by MacMattico
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To: cotton1706
Of course, they'll still blame us if they lose, for being against them, for primarying their canidates, for depleting their funds, and for not voting for the selected slate of candidates.

I am saddened by the number of conservatives including Freepers who make this same argument.

9 posted on 09/23/2014 5:46:23 AM PDT by Maceman
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To: cotton1706

I think it was Cantor that really got under their skin.


10 posted on 09/23/2014 5:46:45 AM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
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To: MacMattico
No more voting for RINOs ever, under any circumstances. Period.

In the past I voted for McCain, and Romney nationally, and for Scott Brown in Massachusetts. But I guess it depends on your belief in how far gone this nation is, and what it will take to restore it, assuming that is even possible at this point.

Personally, I now believe that the only way to save America at this point (assuming such a thing is still possible) is to put conservatives in political offices and enact an agenda based on free markets, limited government and the rule of law. As long as we have a Republican party that actively opposes those ends (and we do, obviously), then I believe our only (slim) hope is drastic action.

As long as the Republican Party establishment believes that it can continue to survive by being Democrat-lite, and that it can continue to maintain power while actively fighting against the core principles of liberty, free markets and Constitutional law, it will never make the necessary change of direction.

Only when the Republican party understands that it must change or die can we hope to turn this country around. Our too-long-serving entrenched establishment politicians can still enjoy their comfy lifestyles, their wealth, power and prestige as members of a minority party. So why should they bother to change direction?

Surely a John Boehner (or an Eric Cantor -- had he not been defeated -- or a Mitch McConnell) would be just as happy to be minority leaders if the election cycle didn't go their way. Yes, they would prefer to be majority leaders, but what good would it do them if a conservative Republican Party won the majority and then threw them out of their cushy positions and all those perks, replacing them with real conservatives?

Ask yourself -- which do you think Mitch McConnell would prefer -- a majority Republican party in which he was stripped of his position by a conservative majority, or a minority Republican party in which he could remain Senate minority leader because the majority of Republican senators were RINOs?

You may argue that we have no time to wait for the Republicans to realize that their only choice is to change or die as a viable party. But if we don't have time for that, then what makes you think we have time to wait for the RINOs and the GOP-e to pursue a "moderately marginal" course of action designed only to maintain their personal fiefdoms at the expense of a free America operating under the rule of Constitutional law?

The GOP had majority power in the House and Senate, and occupied the White House, 10 years ago. What did all that power do to move the agenda of liberty forward? Answer: nothing.

A GOP that cannot even sell liberty, limited governments and free markets to the American people is worse than useless. It is a party of tyranny enablers, and I will have none of it.

Unbelievably, today we once again face the stark choice between liberty and death.

Once again, these are the times that try men's souls. Conservatives need to be waging aggressive war against the totalitarian leftist tyrants on all fronts -- in the branches of government at the federal and state level, in academia, in the media, through public demonstrations, and in the voting booth.

Many argue that we must continue to vote for "the most electable conservative," which means "vote for the RINO if no conservative is running." But I respectfully disagree with that choice. I am done enabling.

If we really are to lose the greatest country in the history of the world, then let's at least be fighting for it when it goes down.

And who knows, maybe -- just maybe, if we show sufficient resolve and conviction -- divine Providence will once again provide the support that gave our founders their unlikely victory in 1776, and grant us once again the "new birth of freedom" that Lincoln called for a century later.

If you reward bad behavior, you get more of it. The RINOs have managed to own the Republican party because they know that conservatives have nowhere else to go.

To continue voting for RINOs is to play right into that strategy. The RINOs have become so certain of your vote that they actually believe they can continue to stay in power by declaring outright war on the conservative base.

And when they do that, they are actually declaring war on core American principles -- war on liberty, war on free market economics, and even war on the Constitution.

The RINO Republicans cannot even make an appeal to the traditional American love of those principles, because they have lost the credibility and historical awareness to articulate them, let alone promote them.

Yes, having Harry Reid continue as speaker is a horrific scenario. But having RINO Republicans win that office is only a marginally better short-term outcome.

And in some ways it is even worse, because as the RINOs “reach across the aisle" to promote marginally modified Democrat policies, they give the Democrats cover from the well-deserved blame that they have unleashed on our country for the last five years.

America is out of time now. We cannot continue on the current path. And as things continue to deteriorate, who do you think the voters will blame if the Republicans are in power when the 2016 elections come around?

You think Mitch McConnell's senate will repeal Obamacare? You think it will take the right position on immigration? You think a Republican Senate will vote against Obama’s left wing Supreme Court nominations?

America needs clear, passionate and articulate voices to advocate and defend our founding principles, to secure our borders, to preserve our nation, and to take legislative and administrative steps to turn this country around, assuming it still can be turned around.

Majority leader Mitch McConnell will NEVER provide that voice or leadership. He is not the guy to turn things around for our formerly blessed nation.

But in 2016 a newly terrified Republican party will be forced to court instead of alienate the conservative base, and come 2017 will be in a position to put the party and our nation on the proper path. Such a duly chastised party has a real chance of nominating a Ted Cruz, instead of a Mitt Romney who, according to last night's panel on Fox News, is at this point the likely Republican presidential nominee.

So in November, for those whose only choice in the mid-terms is between a RINO and a Democrat, I urge them to stay home on election day, or vote third-party -- anything to prove the RINOs wrong in thinking that they can stay in power by literally declaring war on conservatism.

Think about it.

11 posted on 09/23/2014 5:48:28 AM PDT by Maceman
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To: cotton1706

voting for a RINO is a losing proposition


12 posted on 09/23/2014 5:48:42 AM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: cotton1706

FiveThiryEight's Senate forecast of the 36 races


13 posted on 09/23/2014 5:50:14 AM PDT by deport
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To: txhurl

“I think it was Cantor that really got under their skin.”

Oh, absolutely! They focused all their time and efforts and money on protecting their precious Senate. And then one of their arrogant chiefs in the House was taken out! Throwing a very large wrench into their plans (though they’ve since retooled).


14 posted on 09/23/2014 5:51:54 AM PDT by cotton1706 (ThisRepublic.net)
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To: cotton1706

I don’t think it’s too soon to look at who we’re going to be primarying in ‘16, and looking around for candidates. This year’s showing should move more good people to consider running.


15 posted on 09/23/2014 5:55:55 AM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
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To: txhurl

“I don’t think it’s too soon to look at who we’re going to be primarying in ‘16”

I already have the list ready.

Lee (UT) - 2016 - 100% (Average) - 100% (Heritage) - 100% (CFG) - 100% (ACU) - 100% (FreedomWorks)

Paul (KY) - 2016 - 97% (Average) - 96% (Heritage) - 97% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 100% (FreedomWorks)

Rubio (FL) - 2016 - 92% (Average) - 87% (Heritage) - 91% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 95% (FreedomWorks)

Crapo (ID) - 2016 - 89% (Average) - 79% (Heritage) - 92% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 95% (FreedomWorks)

Coburn (OK) - 2016 - 88% (Average) - 81% (Heritage) - 93% (CFG) - 100% (ACU) - 76% (FreedomWorks)

Johnson (WI) - 2016 - 87% (Average) - 89% (Heritage) - 87% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 77% (FreedomWorks)

Grassley (IA) - 2016 - 86% (Average) - 82% (Heritage) - 86% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 86% (FreedomWorks)

Toomey (PA) - 2016 - 85% (Average) - 76% (Heritage) - 93% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 91% (FreedomWorks)

Vitter (LA) - 2016 - 81% (Average) - 75% (Heritage) - 78% (CFG) - 79% (ACU) - 91% (FreedomWorks)

Shelby (AL) - 2016 - 76% (Average) - 76% (Heritage) - 82% (CFG) - 76% (ACU) - 68% (FreedomWorks)

Coats (IN) - 2016 - 73% (Average) - 70% (Heritage) - 75% (CFG) - 83% (ACU) - 65% (FreedomWorks)

Thune (SD) - 2016 - 73% (Average) - 65% (Heritage) - 80% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 59% (FreedomWorks)

Moran (KS) - 2016 - 72% (Average) - 66% (Heritage) - 75% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 67% (FreedomWorks)

Burr (NC) - 2016 - 70% (Average) - 62% (Heritage) - 67% (CFG) - 84% (ACU) - 67% (FreedomWorks)

Boozman (AR) - 2016 - 69% (Average) - 71% (Heritage) - 70% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 55% (FreedomWorks)

Ayotte (NH) - 2016 - 67% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 79% (CFG) - 68% (ACU) - 64% (FreedomWorks)

Portman (OH) - 2016 - 64% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 71% (CFG) - 64% (ACU) - 64% (FreedomWorks)

Blunt (MO) - 2016 - 59% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 67% (CFG) - 71% (ACU) - 41% (FreedomWorks)

Kirk (IL) - 2016 - 55% (Average) - 44% (Heritage) - 74% (CFG) - 44% (ACU) - 59% (FreedomWorks)

Isakson (GA) - 2016 - 54% (Average) - 54% (Heritage) - 59% (CFG) - 54% (ACU) - 50% (FreedomWorks)

McCain (AZ) - 2016 - 54% (Average) - 43% (Heritage) - 71% (CFG) - 52% (ACU) - 48% (FreedomWorks)

Hoeven (ND) - 2016 - 51% (Average) - 44% (Heritage) - 58% (CFG) - 60% (ACU) - 41% (FreedomWorks)

Murkowski (AK) - 2016 - 41% (Average) - 36% (Heritage) - 52% (CFG) - 38% (ACU) - 36% (FreedomWorks)


16 posted on 09/23/2014 6:00:02 AM PDT by cotton1706 (ThisRepublic.net)
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To: Maceman

Such a duly chastised party has a real chance of nominating a Ted Cruz, instead of a Mitt Romney


Another reason to start threatening the RINOs up for election in ‘16 now. We have on year to find their challengers.


17 posted on 09/23/2014 6:00:36 AM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
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To: cotton1706

God, I want Lizard Murkowski’s scalp. Going through her cheating four years ago was nearly as agonizing as watching Team Barbour savage McDaniel. I have actually some hope for McDaniel!

Thanks for the list!


18 posted on 09/23/2014 6:05:08 AM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
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To: cotton1706

Wrong!

If the GOP wins, it will be because of the support of conservatives.

If the GOP loses, it will be because of the behavior of the GOP.


19 posted on 09/23/2014 6:24:54 AM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
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To: Maceman
Nobody can convince me Romney would have been the same or worse then Obama. I just don't believe it. And he wouldn't of surrounded himself with the likes of Valerie Jarrett and Eric Holder. I just don't believe it.

And I don't think Romney hates the USA. No, he wasn't my first or second or third or forth or fifth choice, but he wasn't Obama, who has been far worse then I could have imagined. If I/we only vote pure 100% Conservative it will only mean many more years of leftist rule. We're divided, they are not. I live in NY state and was in one of only a few red districts. It's now blue. The few Republicans in this state are split. And we get things like Cuomo, the SafeAct and high taxes. I don't really get a vote. I can't leave just yet.

Also, if the Senate stays D and a Supreme Court Justice up and dies, Obama can pick as hard left as he wants. Yes, there are people more radical then Ruth Bader Ginsberg to give a life appointment to. Would the Republicans stop a far left from being confirmed? I can't say for sure. But I can say 100% for sure a D Congress would approve Bill Ayers for SCOTUS if Obama demanded.

20 posted on 09/23/2014 7:00:45 AM PDT by MacMattico
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