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JPL: Don’t Expect Drought Relief From El Niño
cbslocal.com ^ | September 22, 2014 4:41 PM

Posted on 09/22/2014 7:54:59 PM PDT by BenLurkin

PASADENA (CBSLA.com) — The anticipated blockbuster return of El Niño is looking more like it will be a flop, a climatologist said Monday.

Scientists from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory say that unless developing weak-to-modest El Niño conditions strengthen, California will continue to stay bone dry.

El Niño describes a weather pattern involving a warming of equatorial waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, a condition that is associated with increased rainfall on the west coast of North America. El Niño conditions in 1997 and 1998 doubled rainfall up and down California, Patzert said.

“Those very strong El Niños happen every 30 or 40 years. Most are more modest and are not good forecasters of heavy rainfall,” he said.

Patzert said that if the ’97 event was a Godzilla El Niño , the weather pattern shaping up now in the eastern Pacific is more like “El Gecko.”

“It is not going to be a drought-buster,” he said.


TOPICS: US: California
KEYWORDS: california; drought; elnino; elnio; jetpropulsionlab; jpl; nasa; pasadena
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1 posted on 09/22/2014 7:54:59 PM PDT by BenLurkin
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To: EveningStar

ping


2 posted on 09/22/2014 7:55:15 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both.)
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To: BenLurkin

Said the man who can’t predict temperature or rainfall probabilities accurately for next weekend.


3 posted on 09/22/2014 7:58:01 PM PDT by Lurker (Violence is rarely the answer. But when it is it is the only answer.)
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To: BenLurkin
I've been correlating rainfall with marine temperatures for nearly fifteen years. There is simply no predictive value to El Nino in terms of rainfall levels here on the Central Coast of California. None.

There may be a statistical correlation averaged over many years, but one can easily find annual rainfall levels that vary from wet to dry in both warm and cold marine winter temperature seasons. To base a forecast upon such variations is totally without merit.

4 posted on 09/22/2014 8:00:18 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (Democrats: the Party of slavery to the immensely wealthy for over 200 years.)
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To: BenLurkin

Eff this guy, I say it’s gonna pour.


5 posted on 09/22/2014 8:05:27 PM PDT by Argus
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To: Carry_Okie

I have found over the clues of almost the same time frame and with my exhaustive study of rainfall. Some years you get rainsome years you don’t in Woo Cal we had near record rains about 9years ago


6 posted on 09/22/2014 8:07:46 PM PDT by al baby (Hi MomÂ…)
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To: BenLurkin

Do not believe what the elite would want you to believe. The last time they “prognosticated” like this they were wrong. The last drought brought predictions of seven years of rainfall before the reservoirs would be filled and the drought would end. It took one month of rain—known as the March miracle—and they all shut up. Now they are back. Stupid fools never correct themselves when they are wrong—that is why they are fools.


7 posted on 09/22/2014 8:07:55 PM PDT by Fungi
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To: BenLurkin

Drought conditions and forecast.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/


8 posted on 09/22/2014 8:10:30 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: BenLurkin

It’s been raining its ass off here I’ve got over 5.6 inches today and we’re in the Desert Southwest!


9 posted on 09/22/2014 8:15:53 PM PDT by Empireoftheatom48 (God help the Republic but will he?)
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To: Empireoftheatom48

That’s because of the hurricane that hit Cabo ended up in AZ!


10 posted on 09/22/2014 8:24:37 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (Pubbies = national collectivists; Dems = international collectivists; We need a second party!)
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To: BenLurkin

So, let me see if I understand this right... It works in a natural cycle of highs and lows?

Sort of like how the rest of the environment works in a cycle of highs and lows?

And all of it is driven by solar cycles?

Gosh, Al Gore told me it was because I didn’t own a Pious!


11 posted on 09/22/2014 8:43:16 PM PDT by kingu (Everything starts with slashing the size and scope of the federal government.)
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To: Empireoftheatom48

“It’s been raining its ass off here I’ve got over 5.6 inches today and we’re in the Desert Southwest!”
******************************************************************************************

To where does the runoff from your rains drain?


12 posted on 09/22/2014 8:56:49 PM PDT by House Atreides (ANOTHER CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN FOR CHILDERS 2014 .... Don't reward bad GOPe behavior.)
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To: BenLurkin

We are in deep doo-doo if we don’t get a greater than average snow in the Sierra tehis year. The CA RATS are bat-sh*t crazy and getting crazier. They just finished releasing millions of acre-feet of water from reservoirs to the ocean hoping that they will lower the temperature of streams so they will be more comfortable for the salmon and other fishies.

This place has gone berserk and it’s only the beginning. When they have trashed CA the golden horde will rampage throughout the west bringing all the neighboring states down with them.


13 posted on 09/22/2014 9:06:22 PM PDT by fifedom
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To: House Atreides
To where does the runoff from your rains drain?

Mainly on the plains.....................................SORRY!

14 posted on 09/22/2014 9:06:24 PM PDT by Mastador1 (I'll take a bad dog over a good politician any day!)
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To: Mastador1

LOL!!! Ouch that hurts (I got the flu)


15 posted on 09/22/2014 9:13:06 PM PDT by 11th_VA
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To: BenLurkin
The anticipated blockbuster return of El Niño is looking more like it will be a flop...

So much for the Billions spent on NASA Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell Analytics had this months ago.

16 posted on 09/22/2014 9:19:34 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (The first stage of cultural death is denial.)
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To: BenLurkin

I’m predicting lots of rain, lots of snow this winter...


17 posted on 09/22/2014 10:05:21 PM PDT by WhyisaTexasgirlinPA (Turmoil in the Middle East? Quick Obama, show them your Peace Prize!)
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To: BenLurkin

END GLOBAL WEATHER!!!


18 posted on 09/23/2014 4:28:22 AM PDT by Organic Panic
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To: BenLurkin

And Governor Moonbeam wants to welcome even more illegals to the once Golden State...stay thirsty my friends.


19 posted on 09/23/2014 5:15:52 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (‘You can avoid reality, but you can’t avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.’)
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To: House Atreides

Well in the case of my daughter in their basement and kitchen area. Debris are all over the roads.


20 posted on 09/23/2014 6:16:13 AM PDT by Empireoftheatom48 (God help the Republic but will he?)
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