States by Economics and Voting (Investment & Finance Thread)

Weekly investment & finance thread ^ | Sept. 7, 2014 | Freeper Investors

[expat_panama]

Day before yesterday we were checking out this BEA map of the U.S. that was colored/labled by GDP and it got us on to the redstate/bluestate divide. 

 

Naturally (as expected) small gov't low tax policies generally flowed with growing economies but what snagged us were the anomalies --Alaska did so poorly yet West Virginia soared.   Seems we can overcome that by ourselves and get all the state numbers for GDP from the BEA along w/ employment states by state from the BLS --and then toss them into online mapping websites (I used iMapBuilder Online).

Got to just love this info age!!

Starting w/ Wikipedia's table of state voting patterns we can have an index (data here) that gives us the standard red/blue state plot:

       [click image to enlarge]>>>

 

 

For state economic growth, many of us were skeptical of the BEA's 2013 map so this one on the left is ranking two years of growth. 

The econ and voting maps are close but they're definitely not identical.  The left coast economies show up as strong while Alaska comes out as a low growth state. 

OK, so while GDP is important it's not everything --

 

--emploment matters too.

Lots of people have seen this headline unemployment map from the BLS showing unemployment by state, but the shrinking workforce goes by state just like it's gone nationwide  --that low unemployment rate just means folks gave up job hunting.   

We need to see the job market in terms of the total population, so here's state employment as a percent of total working age non-institutional groups.

mho is that while nothing's solid, we've definitely got trends and voting patterns do show up in economic strength.  Don't get me wrong, we all know this is correlation and not causality --it's just as easy to say economies ruined by the right are now making people vote liberal.

Uh-huh.

At any rate the numbers are all out there and this map stuff is easy enough to do --they can even show world maps or state by county maps.   What I like is being able to spot how cultural/regional patterns are going w/ the data; one more edge on knowing where things are going and we all need all the help we can get in that department....

This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--

Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well.   Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy.

[Chgogal]

Grrrrrrrr.........it's never enough for those damn socialists!!!!

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/sep/6/sen-sanders-calls-wealth-tax-afl-cio-convention/

Phil, Super Freeper Expat_Panama (originally from our neck of the woods) did a very interesting analysis of voting record vs. economic outcome.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

Alibaba files to sell up to $24.3 billion in stock, biggest US IPO ever
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3201616/posts

[expat_panama]

Good morning and a happy new full week to all!!  We got futures now pointing to mixed/off stocks and strong solid metals, this after last week's  mixed/up stocks and tanking metals.  Today's a slow report day (just Consumer Credit) and the good headlines are already posted on these threads--

• http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/sep/6/sen-sanders-calls-wealth-tax-afl-cio-convention/
• For Wonks Only
• Obama Outperforms Reagan on Jobs, Growth and Investing

This past weekend the pundits have been so busy I'll just list the smorgasbord tables--

• http://finance.townhall.com/
• http://americanthinker.com/
• http://www.realclearmarkets.com/
• https://www.google.com/finance
• http://finance.yahoo.com/

--and everyone can post which article tastes best...

[expat_panama]

This is the one I should have included yesterday--

--because it's policy, not politics that matter.  Data from the 2012 State Business Tax Climate Index

[Wyatt's Torch]

http://www.businessinsider.com/oppenheimer-strategy-outlook-september-2014-9

[1010RD]

Most people don’t understand entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship replaces capital. That’s why the poor need access to entrepreneurship. Licensing, permitting, accrediting, etc. all raise the costs of capital and hamstring efforts at self improvement.

Entrepreneurship is simply finding a shortcut or efficiency currently overlooked in a market. Think about how a high cost or a long timeline or both can be overcome and you’re an entrepreneur.

[1010RD]

It’s intentional psyops. Look at what happened to liberal and conservative at the end of the last century. If you control language you control thought.

Think about how better dead than red sounds now.

[expat_panama]

I got a kick out of hearing a real life socialist —and then after about 15 seconds the fun part wore off. Calling for a wealth tax on the evil rich because of corporations not paying taxes but I thot corps were not people...

[expat_panama]

Think about how better dead than red...

--and "marriage" used to mean husband and wife...

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

This kid here came up with a great idea. Storing rainwater in your fence. This is entrepreneurship at it’s finest. I was struck by the official’s attitudes though. “Local conservation and building officials said they would need more details about the water fence before knowing how it could be used here. “

Rohnert Park teen comes up with novel way to store water
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/home/2674898-181/rohnert-park-teen-comes-up#page=0

[expat_panama]

Good day to all!  Asset prices continue flat basing, back into 'wait-and-see' mode as today's futures traders call stocks'n'metals at flat/off.  Only major report today is mid-morning JOLTS - Job Openings.  Does the news this morning seem weird to everyone else or is there just something in my coffee?

• Home Depot Confirms Credit-Card Data Hack TIME - 5:45am Home Depot credit card breach The Home Depot home improvement store in Portland, ME on Thursday, September 4, 2014. Home Depot is currently investigating a potential credit card breach, and determining whether customers' card numbers were ...
• Stock gap: American stock holdings at 18-year low The widening gap between the wealthy and the rest of America during the recovery can largely be explained in one word: stocks. According to recent data from the Federal Reserve , America has the lowest level of stock ownership in 18 years. Read More Wealth gap 'unsustainable,' may worsen CNBC
• Why Do Peacenik Liberals Make War on Business? Christopher Chantrill After two hundred years of a capitalism that lifted the average income from $3 per day to $100 per day, you would think that the educated, evolved people would realize that the science was settled. More
• 'Escape Velocity' Still Eludes the Economy - David Rosenberg, National Post
• Obama Outperformed Reagan? Hardly. - StreetTalk Live
• William Jennings Krugman Endorses Inflation - Editorial, New York Sun
• Who's Afraid Of Deflation? - David Andolfatto, MacroMania

 

[Wyatt's Torch]

BTW sell AAPL today around 1:00 pm and buy tomorrow morning. Then sell next Thursday EOM. :-)

[expat_panama]

Is that eastern time?

[Wyatt's Torch]

Yep. After the announcement of Apple Pay it was up to $103. Announcement of Apple Watch down to $97 :-)

[Wyatt's Torch]

Here's is the AAPL chart:

[Wyatt's Torch]

The market clearly understands that U2’s new music still sucks... ;-)

[expat_panama]

Ah, you meant 1PM Central Daylight Time (=1PM EDT). Your delay in clarifying that cost me thousands. I’ll send you a bill...

[expat_panama]

just kidding...

[Wyatt's Torch]

yeah I missed the timing by 57 minutes... :-)

[expat_panama]

imho there aren’t signs as would be needed to time that kind of market swing, as opposed to the kind of timing that we do over longer time frames. When this kind of ultra-short term volatility hits I simply declare it an ‘unstable market’ and step back.