Posted on 09/04/2014 12:43:46 AM PDT by nickcarraway
A study in the journal Science, released last week, shows that the Ebola strain spreading across Western Africa has undergone a surprisingly high amount of genetic drift during the current outbreak. Experts say the mutations could eventually make the virus harder to diagnose and perhaps treat with a new therapeutic, should one come along.
In yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, I wrote that in response to the crisis, the Obama administration has stressed that the disease is unlikely to spread inside America. We will certainly see cases diagnosed here, and perhaps even experience some isolated clusters of disease. For now, though, the administration’s assurances are generally correct: Health-care workers in advanced Western nations maintain infection controls that can curtail the spread of non-airborne diseases like Ebola.
But our relative comfort in the U.S. is based on our belief that our public health tools could easily contain a virus spread only through direct contact. That would change radically if Ebola were to alter its mode of spread. We know the virus is mutating. Could it adapt in a way that makes it airborne?
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Your lungs consist of tiny pipes 1 cell thick filled with blood...
Read THE HOT ZONE by Richard Preston online or download for free here:
http://learn.flvs.net/educator/common/EnglishIIv10/TheHotZone.pdf
YES - YES IT CAN!
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/08/10/ebola-1989-outbreak/13860929/
Three Books:
Biohazard: Ken Alibek
Germs: Judith Miller
The Demon in the Freezer: Richard Preston
Very interesting...
They seen to be using the phrase “genetic drift” in the wrong way, to mean mutation itself.
The disease has a large viral load, which gives it more opportunity to mutate. And of course when more and more people have it, it has an even better chance of mutation.
Genetic drift would mean one mutation or more become isolated from the rest and in effect start their own form of the disease in a particular spot or situation.
Once it starts to ravage the gay community the “progressives” shall start to show concern.
Thanks for the H/T. I am bothered by the hair-splicing over the various forms of inhalation transmission. Sure it’s scientifically accurate to say it isn’t transmissible via droplet nuclei as is influenza, but insisting that it isn’t “airborne” is grossly misleading to non-medical and non-scientific people.
The fact is, infected people produce virus particles in their saliva and lung secretions, both of which are expelled from the body into the environment via coughing and sneezing. Anyone within three feet of the infected individual can inhale those secretions and become infected without ever coming in direct physical contact with the viral source. And no one wants to talk about environmental contamination, which I think is even more serious than the droplet vector.
In light of the hair-splicing and diversions I doubt there is any chance of containing this virus before the body count becomes insanely huge.
Oh, we can legally quarantine sick people. There is no constitutional protection against confinement of a person who has a contagious disease.
I must note that the code phrase "bodily fluids" which is so often translated as sharing needles or sexual contact in American medicine and in the mind of the average American (thanks to AIDS), really means ALL bodily fluids in the case of Ebola, from tears and sweat to saliva, blood, semen, vaginal secretions, and by the time someone is symptomatic, feces as well.
Fomites are generally ignored, even though the virus is known to survive on surfaces (even dry) for hours up to indefinitely if the temperature is cold enough. For that reason, though, hotter temperatures more likely lead to perspiration, thinner clothing (and outdoor activities which could lead to open scrapes and cuts) which could lead to viral transfer from common contact surfaces (counters, handles, benches, etc.) and infection.
The whole concept that Ebola is "hard to catch" works best when you are an ocean away.
The people on the ground in Africa have described it as "extremely contagious".
I disagree. I think we need to be very clear on the differences between airborne and droplet transmission. You do not have to be near a sick person, either spatially or temporally, to catch an airborne disease since the particles remain airborne for extended periods of time (up to 4 hours with measles) and can travel on air currents. Droplets, however, fall, and so only people within a short distance of the patient (about a meter or so) risk exposure. Droplets do contaminate surfaces, but it is easier to avoid touching surfaces than it is to avoid breathing aerosols.
People who hear that Ebola could be airborne no doubt run off to the internet and find out that you don't even have to be in the same room with a patient to catch an airborne disease, and thus become unnecessarily alarmed. This is why I take the time to explain that droplet transmission is not the same as aerosol transmission. Concern is appropriate. Recognizing the need to stop this outbreak is appropriate. Panicking that Ebola is poised to start a pandemic that could wipe out over half of earth's population is *not* appropriate.
Not really. The term genetic drift is used to describe the fact that viruses isolated early in an outbreak are slightly different than viruses isolated later. Viruses even mutate within a single person during the course of a single infection.
By studying the genetic drift, researchers can determine if the outbreak started from a single zoonotic infection, or multiple infections from different zoonotic sources.
I believe that most of these fluids must be contaminated by trace amounts of blood in order to become infectious. In this paper, virus was not found in acute phase sputum, tears, vomit, or sweat, and only 1 of 8 saliva samples tested positive for infectious virus. Some of these samples tested positive by RT-PCR, but that does not differentiate between live virus and nucleic acid from inactive viral particles. True, sample sizes are small. I have not seen a study that systematically addresses the question of infectivity of various bodily fluids (that isn't to say there is no such study--if there is one, I would love to see the reference).
Given that so few virus particles are necessary to establish an infection, infection control measures must be strict and thorough to prevent transmission.
There is only one problem. In the wild, outside the clinical environment people are going to be coming into contact with fomites in an epidemic, without knowing they are in an environment where contamination has taken place.
They will not be following currently recommended infection control guidelines for viral hemorrhagic fevers.
While risks might be low for clinical personnel in a clinical (PPE) environment, the general public in the vicinity of the infected person as they become symptomatic will be at risk.
It is what happens before they get in the door that will determine how widespread the disease will become.
Ebola reporting is just like the no WMD's found in Iraq reporting. Out and out lies.
What if they went to a string of basketball games, fast food restaurants, crowded shopping centers, and music concerts? The typical life of an early twenties adult.
Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
Yet there are people on this very forum who quite adamantly insist that any sick American must be dragged, coughing puking and bleeding out back to America for treatment!
I wish I was kidding.
“WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!”
Yes. All of us. Eventually. Of something.
But...but...Nully...it’s my job to yell that after each ping to see how many liberals panic and run for the exits...
Oh. Wait. I forgot where I was. Stand down.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.