Posted on 09/03/2014 9:38:23 PM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
With the Soryu-class submarine, Japan can compete with the best the global submarine market has to offer.
As Clint Richards noted earlier, it now appears likely that Japan will sell advanced Soryu-class submarines to Australia. In addition to strengthening the relationship between Australia and Japan, and making Australia’s submarine force considerably more lethal, this represents a major move by Japan into the global submarine market.
Germany, France, and Russia have long dominated the existing market for diesel-electric submarines. The German Type 209 submarine serves in over a dozen navies, with more than 60 boats currently in service. While the design stems from the 1960s, the newest boats entered service in the last decade. Germany’s successor, the Type 214, is scheduled for export to Greece and South Korea, but has suffered some setbacks. France has exported the Scorpene-class to Malaysia, Brazil, and India, and Russia continues to export its Kilo-class subs and Improved Kilos to a handful of countries, at least until Russian industry can work through the problems with the Lada-class.
The Japanese Soryus are extremely competitive with these boats. At 4,200 tons submerged, the Soryu-class is considerably larger than either the Type 214, Scorpene, or Improved Kilo, and can carry a much heavier weapons load. This size also makes them quieter and longer-ranged than the other boats on the market. At current price expectations of around $500 million, the Soryus are not wildly more expensive than the other boats.
The United States, of course, hasn’t had a piece of this market in decades, as no U.S. yards build diesel-electric subs. China has yet to begin exporting subs, although the increasing sophistication of Chinese designs may make this possible in the near future.
Shifting Japan’s defense industry to export will undoubtedly produce some teething troubles. One caveat is longevity. The JMSDF has historically only expected its subs to operate for about 20 years. Many export customers will expect a longer life from their boats, and Japanese industry will have to adjust accordingly with respect to equipment, repair, and spare part requirements. Unlike the Germans, French, and Russians, the Japanese have little experience with managing the long-term maintenance requirements of sophisticated weapon systems in foreign service. But given the strong reputation of Japanese industry, this shouldn’t be a big problem.
There’s no doubt that Germany, Russia, and France should worry about the position they currently hold in the global submarine market. Many of the Latin American navies have Type 209 boats that will require replacement sooner rather than later. The Soryu could also give Vietnam an alternative to the Improved Kilos Hanoi is buying from Russia. It doesn’t hurt that some of these large, long-ranged boats may go to countries that have problems with China. This solidifies Japan’s security relationship with these countries, while also improving the economic prospects of Japan’s defense industry.
If Japan can reliably produce the Soryu at a cost that is competitive with the latest German and French boats, it can capture a big part of that market, while also making the Western Pacific more dangerous for the PLAN. For Tokyo, this is a win-win.
We’re still the number one manufacturing country in the world. You’re telling me that we couldn’t hire & train the right people to build such a boat? IIRC, we built 73 of just the Gato class submarines during our less than four years fighting World War II. Admittedly, those were much simpler boats than the current AIPs, but you get what I’m saying.
Yes, as reparations for the Holocaust.
“Recently Germany has held up deliveries to Israel.”
That is just untrue.
“’Nuke-Capable’ Stealth Submarine Sets Sail for Israel
The INS Tanin – the Navy’s fourth and most advanced Dolphin-class submarine – is en route to Israel from Germany.”
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/184846#.VBcCLRaqLSQ
Range for Dolphin class (2,400 t) in English Wikipedia is for the smaller Type 212 (1,800 t).
I guess Dolphin class is within the same range capabilities like Collins-class but with a crew of just 35 men. Just have a look at the range and endurance of the in between Type 214 submarines.
“1) Japan and Israel have different maritime needs: The Soryu is a huge boat, weighing over twice the size of the Israeli Dolphins and with almost twice the crew. The Israelis will be hard-pressed to find/train enough personnel for it given the allocations for their navy.”
Crew size is not related to capability of a submarine. The standard crew size of a Type 212/214 submarine is 27 men. Israeli Navy did add additional crew men for additional weapons. The crew size is related to axiomatization and reliability. Search for Collins-class crew size...
Did you ever thought about the range issue for Japan? The Soryus are big but what about range and endurance?
“2) For all the Germans say, they have subsidized the Dolphins they built for Israel to varying degrees. Will Japan do the same?”
Germany didn’t subsidized the Dolphins. It was a political redemption for German companies supporting Iraq with missile technique. The price for a Dolphin class submarine is about $500 million without the special weapons. BTW for the last Dolphin class submarine Israel paid the full price and still is thinking about another one.
I would prefer a fleet of Type 210mod: https://www.thyssenkrupp-marinesystems.com/en/hdw-class-210mod.html
Crew size DOES matter a great deal. No amount of automation can override the need for manual backup. Which is why the Royal Navy and USN still have close to or over 100 men on their subs.
You talk about the Collins class-well, the Australian navy did increase their complement to 58 (about 15-16 more personnel) to cope with engineering issues:
http://www.asiapacificdefencereporter.com/articles/301/SEA-1000-CREW-SIZE-UNDER-PRESSURE
The ‘standard’ complement as advertised by manufacturers is rarely the number a navy will put on them. South Korea seems to have about 40 personnel on its Type-214s, which is nearly 50% more than the ‘standard’.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/n_feature/2013/08/02/57/4901000000AEN20130802008900315F.HTML
The Soryus have an optimum balance of range and endurance-the Type-214 has a endurance over two months if it were only on AIP, which would mean very low speed. When you need to run at higher speeds, you’ll need to use your D/E mode and the Japanese have the larger fuel capacity for this, in addition to the Sterling AIP.
The Israelis say their Dolphins were funded by the Germans-so whom do we believe? Companies can’t pay ‘redemption’ money to foreign nations without political clearance.
“No amount of automation can override the need for manual backup. Which is why the Royal Navy and USN still have close to or over 100 men on their subs.”
The answer is KISS. The US and the still United Kingdom operate submarines with nuclear propulsion and ballistic missiles. Therefore they need more crew men.
The crew size was reduced from Type 209 with a crew of 36 or 33 for Chang Bogo-class to 27 for Type 212/214. The smaller Ula-class or Type 210mod just have a crew of 15 men on a two watch system or 21 for a 3 watch system. The Israeli Dolphin-II-class (Type 214+...) operates with 35. I guess about 8 more than Type 214 according to special weapons...
The planed Type 216 for Australia has a minimum crew requirement of 34 (2-watch) with the capability for additional 29 crew men (3-watch, special ops, intelligence gathering...) .
The ROKS Type 214 with “up to 40 men”. Seems to be the standard complement of 27 + 12 mission specialist for e.g. intelligence gathering in a 3-watch system with 4 specialist per watch.
“The Soryus have an optimum balance of range and endurance”
Do you have something official about Soryus’ endurance and range?
The endurance of a Type 214 is 84 days. The AIP fuel is not the main fuel for long transit. The German U 32 (Type 212) made it in 2013 from the English channel to Mayport (about 3,500 nm) in 18 days submerged.
The German government has a special relation to Israel and pays a lot to support Israel in many ways. Even parts of the Israeli nuclear program were paid by Germany. My point is Germany did nothing special to provide Israel submarines at a discount prices because Germany always did support Israel.
One third of price (~ €330 million) of the first two AIP Dolphin submarines were paid by Germany and also €135 million for the third Dolphin submarine. So the price for each submarine is about €500 million for such a submarine for nuclear deterrence (price without nukes!).
Australia expected to pay A$36 billion for just 12 sons of Collins-class or could buy for the same amount of money 48 Dolphin-class submarines.
The point about any heat engine is the optimal work load. Operating the engine with more or less power will reduce efficiency.
A submarine idle on the ground will run on battery power and start the heat engine to reload the batteries. Fuel cells can provide the exact amount of of energy without using the batteries and related losses.
Do Kawasaki or Mitsubishi have the rights to export submarines with Sterling engines? Will Sweden grant the rights while Kockums won’t build the submarines? Will TKMS grant the additional rights after all what has happened in Sweden?
Umm, Nuclear roles does not mean More Men. Check the number of personnel of Russian nuclear subs: they have far smaller crews. Does that mean their technology and automation is superior to the West? Hell, no. In other other words, companies can brag about numbers. You are assuming that the complement on the Korean boats are intelligence personnel.
While, I’d agree that the fuel cell AIP is the most efficient system there is, what exactly will the speed of the submarine when its endurance is listed as 84 days? And what will its endurance be when it has to do high speed transit? Which will be expected for the Australian navy.
About Patents: You are again assuming that TKMS would be owning patents to improvements to the Stirling. For one, there is little or know evidence of transfer of patents in that period? If there was, Saab would not have been able to acquire Kockums in the manner it did. Additionally, Saab/Kockums is hardly in a position to win the Australian deal given the mismatch in their capabilities and customer requirements. If they had no problem exporting to the Japanese, they would not mind exporting the Stirling to Australia.
And for all the advantages of the Siemens fuel cell, the Stirling has one advantage: logistics. You don’t need to build storage tanks on the sub and shore facilities to store liquid hydrogen.
Err, in post 24, you say Germany didn’t subsidize the subs and then you say Germany pays a lot to support Israel?
What exactly is the difference between the two?
My point is Germany did normally not subsidize submarine exports but Germany regularly supports Israel.
lol
exactly.
shokaku and zuikaku are also available...
plenty of choices... :)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.