Posted on 08/29/2014 7:46:46 PM PDT by Lorianne
Most real estate experts believe the U.S. housing market is roaring back. Few have anything to negative to say about real estate. But what if they’re wrong?
Real estate analyst Keith Jurow, author of the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report, is warning that the real estate market is not as strong as it seems. Says Jurow: “I never bought into the idea that we had a recovery at all.” His research leads him to conclude that home prices will be heading lower.
Why? Largely because home listings are going up but sale prices are not. Jurow discovered that as of June 2014, listings in Ft. Lauderdale increased by 89.3% year-over-year. In Miami, listings are up by 65.7% In Charlotte, N.C. they are up 51%, and in Riverside, Calif. they’re up 28.1%. In 10 major metro areas around the country, listings have increased. Jurow gets his data from Redfin.com and Raveis.com.
“Many people waited for prices to rise before putting their house on the market, and they have,” Jurow says. “But now listings are increasing because everyone has the same idea. Unfortunately, May and June are traditionally the strongest months for sales, and these home sellers have missed the peak season.”
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Thanks! Very good analysis.
“We are in the Houston suburbs and houses in our area are gone within 30 days of hitting the market, some sooner. Our neighbor got a job in the oil patch in west Texas and their house sold within ten days of listing at a cost of $50,000 more than they paid ten years ago and sale was for cash. Lots of people moving here from the east and west coasts and, to them, our houses are a real bargain.”
We just sold in Cypress. Put house on market $25k above agents recommendation and got $5k above list first day. Sold for 45% more than paid for in 2011.
Took us FOUR years to sell our home at a loss in NE Ohio. Moved to TX and our housing prices are rising and, IMO, inflated. Anything out there that’s reasonable is gone the first day on the market.
Even neighborhood specific. I'm seeing a lot of cash, a lot of Chinese money, and multiple bids 5 - 10% over asking. The next neighborhood over it's not hot but it's holding its own. Ten miles away - nothing.
The town in question has always been a strong micro market. there has always been a steady supply of people who want to move into THAT town on THAT side of the tracks. The home was designed 100 yrs ago by a well known architect and definitely qualifies as “gracious” to a degree that half a mill doesn’t seem to be too much of an imposition. It quite surprised me to be on the market so long. (I did in fact see it on Zillow).
And you just hit the nail on the head.
There is no American Housing Market. All markets are local. As people flee to go where the jobs are, prices drop in one area and go up in another. When we left TX two years ago, our house/land value had dropped from $100,000 to $65,000 over a seven year period. Although we listed the property lower than any of the others, it still took 10 months to find a buyer. Ten years ago I sold a house before I had the opportunity to get a realtor. The house we bought in TX was on the market for just a couple of days by the time we put in our offer and we had several competitors. What a difference time made. (We lost our shirts on that deal)
I keep telling my family that they have to stay mobile while the economy is crazy like this. Be free to go where the jobs are. Even if things suddenly turn around, it can take a decade for the nation to regain overall prosperity and some areas (like Detroit) will never recover.
Bought a five-year old house in AZ three years ago for $145K. It was a foreclosure, and the previous owners trashed it before they left. They paid $400k for it and lost their @$$, so I guess they felt they had the right to destroy the bank's property. It took about $50k to fix it up and add a small pool and landscaping.
Three years later, and it is back near $400k, meaning I have a nice place to live, and a nice little investment profit.
In the mean time, I sold a condo in the SF valley. (Los Angeles area.) Again, good location, and it sold for more than the asking price and Zillow's highest estimate, the day we had the open house. Two bidders, both cash, and yes, both foreign. The guy that bought it was from Kenya, spoke no English, and has turned it into a rental investment.
Any realtor or real estate investor will tell you it is all about location.
Around Northern Nevada the average time on the market for $250,000 range is HOURS.
It’s because of the thousands of good paying secure jobs up there...
yukyuk..
If you like casino work come on up. Good valets can make $60,000. Dealers and pit bosses way more than that.
No thanks...I find places like Reno and Vegas to be gawdy, full of drunks and obnoxious...I can get that right here. Flashy became a thing of the past.
BTW, an economy built on gambling is a house of cards.
I don’t work in gaming and never hve. Every other field I have worked in has had ups and downs. Construction, semiconductor, telecom, metal working and several others. No field is safe from cycles - except maybe bars.
It is the same in Houston and has been for quite a while. My daughter sold her house so quickly she had to move into an apartment before she could find another one. It was not uncommon for a house to have 3 buyers lined up on the day it went on the market and I am not talking about dumps either. She was looking in the $300 to $400 range.
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