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A 10-Year Prediction for the Affordable Care Act: Number of uninsured Americans may increase by 10%
National Journal ^ | 08/29/2014 | MICHAEL RAMLET

Posted on 08/29/2014 2:09:47 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

The Affordable Care Act cannot be broken down into sound bites. This holds true for both its most ardent supporters and its most fervent opponents. The law is simply too complex to be labeled either a total failure or a smashing success.

But that doesn't mean it isn't trending in one of those two directions. Across the country, individuals and families are beginning to learn whether their insurance premiums will change for 2015—early estimates indicate an overall national increase of 7.5 percent, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers analysis. That's what is expected despite the early promise that the ACA would lower overall premiums by as much as $2,500 per family.

These hikes, which add to those experienced by many consumers last year, are likely just the tip of the iceberg. In recent months, I have worked with Dr. Stephen Parente, a professor of Health Finance at the University of Minnesota, to assess how the Affordable Care Act will affect Americans' access to health care over the next decade.

Our findings don't bode well for the law's long-term success.

We estimate that within 10 years, the number of uninsured Americans may increase by 10 percent. At the same time, premiums will rise faster than federal subsidies. The latter problem will be most severe when insurers release their 2017 rate increases in the summer and fall of 2016—perhaps the most awkward timing for the law's supporters.

We reached this conclusion using the 2014 enrollment numbers, which the Health and Human Services Department announced in April. We analyzed them using a consumer simulation model funded in part by HHS. The model uses the regulatory requirements mandated by the ACA to estimate the cause-and-effect relationship between health care plan pricing and consumers' buying habits.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 0carenightmare; health; insurance; medicaid; obamacare; obamacarepremiums; obamacaresubsidies; uninsured
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1 posted on 08/29/2014 2:09:47 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

People who couldn’t afford health insurance can surely not afford it now. I’ve had 3 joint replacements. Thank God I did it before last year. Can’t afford rehab now that my deductible went from $500 to $5000 a year! Don’t see doctors anymore. Just deal with the pain


2 posted on 08/29/2014 2:15:00 PM PDT by poobear (Socialism in the minds of the elites, is a con-game for the serfs, nothing more.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Most people are going to sign up for Medicaid.

I pay no monthly premiums, $2 doctor office visits and $4 prescription drug co-pay.

That’s what is going to happen. Single payer by default.


3 posted on 08/29/2014 2:21:39 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

“Most people are going to sign up for Medicaid.”

And how do “most people” do that????

.


4 posted on 08/29/2014 2:25:27 PM PDT by Mears
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To: Mears

They’re going to be enrolled if no private health insurance will take them - in some states, its automatic enrollment.


5 posted on 08/29/2014 2:26:43 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
They’re going to be enrolled if no private health insurance will take them - in some states, its automatic enrollment.

Income is the criteria for going on medicaid. If they live in a state that has expanded medicaid and earn less than 138% of the federal poverty level they get kicked into medicaid when they apply on a healthcare exchange.

6 posted on 08/29/2014 2:36:41 PM PDT by EVO X
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To: SeekAndFind

On the bright side, you can get your gender changed, support a druggie lifestyle and have sexual adventures which would make Sandra Fluke look like a nun . . .


7 posted on 08/29/2014 2:41:21 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Mears
And how do “most people” do that????

No real estate, no motor vehicles, no stocks, bonds or money in the bank over $2400, give them the last five years worth of bank statements and tax returns to ensure you aren't hiding anything, forfeit all your income in exchange for care and a $45 per month allowance and maybe they will agree to put you on medicaid.

What a deal!

8 posted on 08/29/2014 2:45:20 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: goldstategop
Most people are going to sign up for Medicaid.
Most people??? You can't just sign up for Medicaid - you have to qualify for it first, ostensibly by being poor.
9 posted on 08/29/2014 2:45:37 PM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: oh8eleven

At this rate, in 10 years 99% of Americans will qualify for medicaid, if no significantly decent jobs are created.


10 posted on 08/29/2014 2:47:31 PM PDT by Kackikat
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To: Kackikat

Bump


11 posted on 08/29/2014 2:48:39 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Vigilanteman

“What a deal! “

:-)

.


12 posted on 08/29/2014 2:48:43 PM PDT by Mears
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To: Vigilanteman
No real estate, no motor vehicles, no stocks, bonds or money in the bank over $2400, give them the last five years worth of bank statements and tax returns to ensure you aren't hiding anything, forfeit all your income in exchange for care and a $45 per month allowance and maybe they will agree to put you on medicaid.

Those type of rules don't apply in states that have expanded medicaid. Assets aren't part of the equation. Just income..

13 posted on 08/29/2014 2:53:47 PM PDT by EVO X
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To: SeekAndFind

“We reached this conclusion using the 2014 enrollment numbers, which the Health and Human Services Department announced in April..<<<——which are bogus

We analyzed them using a consumer simulation model funded in part by HHS. <<<<——which is bogus

“The model uses the regulatory requirements mandated by the ACA <<<<——which is bogus, having undergone over 20 changes..

“to estimate <<<<——uh huh.
“the cause-and-effect relationship between health care plan pricing and consumers’ buying habits.
So far, all such estimates have been wildly inaccurate.

This isn’t even worthy of comment. You could formulate an equally accurate prediction using my dirty socks.


14 posted on 08/29/2014 2:55:46 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (At no time was the Obama administration aware of what the Obama administration was doing)
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To: SeekAndFind

Who cares about a few million uninsured?

The important thing is that the Obamacare program is working as planned.

Obama, his cronies and other high level elected democrats will make hundreds of millions off the scam just as intended.


15 posted on 08/29/2014 3:01:29 PM PDT by Iron Munro (Why democrat voters are like sperm: Only 1 in a million work.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Fleece the payers, so the takers can take more.


16 posted on 08/29/2014 7:34:10 PM PDT by SkyPilot
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To: SeekAndFind

“. At the same time, premiums will rise faster than federal subsidies.”

Doesn’t matter for those getting the subsidies , only for the taxpayers. One stupid way the law was written was to hardwire the amount each person pays relative to their income, not to the overall premium cost.


17 posted on 08/30/2014 3:58:04 PM PDT by yorkiemom ( "...if fascism ever comes to America, it will come in the name of liberalism." - Ronald Reagan)
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To: goldstategop

“Most people are going to sign up for Medicaid.”

Only those with no self-respect.


18 posted on 08/30/2014 3:59:52 PM PDT by yorkiemom ( "...if fascism ever comes to America, it will come in the name of liberalism." - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Kackikat

“At this rate, in 10 years 99% of Americans will qualify for medicaid, if no significantly decent jobs are created.”

Then there won’t be anyone left to pay for it.


19 posted on 08/30/2014 4:01:57 PM PDT by yorkiemom ( "...if fascism ever comes to America, it will come in the name of liberalism." - Ronald Reagan)
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To: yorkiemom

True...and isn’t that the problem with this Administration that no one can seem to predict the outcome intelligently.


20 posted on 08/30/2014 6:46:15 PM PDT by Kackikat
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