Posted on 08/20/2014 4:59:25 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The government's latest survey of job openings and labor turnover implies that while the U.S. labor market has improved significantly since the recession, it is far from having recovered.
The key determinant of labor market health is hiring, and hiring remains well below normal.
The data-rich Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, which Fed chair Janet Yellen is said to follow closely, reports monthly hires and separations, with the separation defined as the termination of an employment relationship for any reason.
The hiring and separation numbers reveal important but little-known facts about how the U.S. labor market operates.
During the typical month when jobs increase by about 100,000, 5.1 million workers are hired and five million separate from their jobs, resulting in a net change of +100,000 jobs.
During the worst month of the most recent recession (June 2009), when net jobs decreased by almost half a million, there were still 3.6 million hires.
The labor market is dynamic; even through sluggish periods, there is tremendous churn.
Reductions in employment during recessions come about primarily because the hiring rate declines, not because layoffs pick up. It is easy to cut employment to recession levels simply by a freeze in hiring for a month or two. It is the number of hires that tells us how close we are to getting back to pre-recession levels.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
With everything openly turning to shite with nobama at POTUS, this “churning” is not going to improve even if the Senate changes majorities this Fall, unless its by a super majority.
If we are lucky enough to get a good conservative POTUS and have the majority in Congress in 16, hold on to your hat, a whirlwind boom will take place with pent up business and employment taking off from such an extended malaise.
Quits are coming back too which is a good sign. It will be interesting to see if the upside breakout on NFP the last three months can continue. regardless, a tepid jobs recovery (longest ever).
What is NFP?
Non Farm Payrolls
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