Gary Shilling: "Q2 GDP Was Closer To 1% Than To 3%. It Could Even Be A Negative Number"

Zero Hedge ^

[Perdogg]

This week, in the aftermath of the Q1 -2.9% GDP disaster, the biggest "non-recessionary" drop in 67 years which was blamed on harsh weather (because there have never been harsh winters in the past 67 years), we get the first glimpse of what Q2 GDP was in the US economy. It is expected to print just shy of 3%. However, one person disagrees: Gary Shilling believes that not only will Q2 GDP be closer to 1% than to 3%, there is a fairly good chance it could be negative, which of course would mean that the US economy has officially entered a recession.

Shilling's take:

Special Report: No Spring Thaw

The consensus of economists looks for second quarter real GDP growth, which will be released July 30, of 3% vs. the first quarter at annual rates. It believes the 2.9% drop in the first quarter was cold weather-driven, and a rebound in the second quarter is the prelude to 3%-plus growth in the second half of the year. As in the last several years, the herd is likely to be disappointed.

[no-to-illegals]

Somebody cooking the books again? Cooking the books looks to be SOP these days.

[Viennacon]

Obama has driven the country into a ditch.

[BlackVeil]

It is funny - the contrast between claims of unstoppable global warming - and also the claim that cold weather had an unprecedented, very negative, effect on economic growth.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Nonsense. Truck production is meeting the five-year plan quota, as is beet production, thanks to the work of Comrade Obama and the Central Committee.

[C210N]

Obama has driven the country into a ditch.

Instead of building a LONG wall at the southern border, he has found it much easier to just build a smaller wall around the ditch, so that the country can't get out.

[familyop]

Gary Shilling is a financial analyst who’s written for Bloomberg, Forbes, The Wall Street Journal and more.

[Perdogg]

Will next wk's GDP data show #recession or, at best, very weak growth? Special Report: No Spring Thaw on my homepage http://t.co/fLT2Vsd0Gv— A. Gary Shilling (@agaryshilling) July 25, 2014

[no-to-illegals]

My agreement ... Guess they figure they have to tell us something in order that we will keep on keeping on or are the reports in order that we lose all hope and buckle under to the remaining loose change in our pockets.

[Kartographer]

PING!!

[bolobaby]

If it is a recession, the court - jester media won’t let it be reported until after the GOP takes both houses in November.

Then we know whose fault it will be.

[SampleMan]

...which of course would mean that the US economy has officially entered a recession.

Actually, the standard definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters that AVERAGE less that 0%. That said, we are already in a technical recession.

[Bob]

And the chocolate ration has been increased.

[RckyRaCoCo]

So if it comes in around 4% or above it will be because of the unseasonably cooler weather(particularly Midwest/NE)that drove consumers out of the house and into the marketplace...and not necessarily Obama's policies.

...heh, with today's state-run media?

fat chance...prepare for the glorification oozing from the presstitutes!

[Plumres]

Got a name for this recession, the Obamacare slump!

[familyop]

"It is funny - the contrast between claims of unstoppable global warming - and also the claim that cold weather had an unprecedented, very negative, effect on economic growth."

Yes. It is. Here's what many in global corporations and government offices who spend large amounts of money on private research reports have really been afraid of.

Earths Magnetic Pole Shifting Accelerates
Taylor Rash
June 24, 2014
http://guardianlv.com/2014/06/earths-magnetic-pole-shifting-accelerates/

[familyop: Great increases in siesmic disturbances and volcanism might cause much atmospheric pollution, increased temperature fluctuations, mainly toward extrem cold fluctuations, slower evaporation with less rain (drought), odd displacements of weather patterns,... Markets would be much affected--especially commodities. They insist on propagandizing about the mythical, "anthropomorphic" "warming" problem, because they cling to their Atheism/Idolatries.]

[GeronL]

They have been trying to tell us the economy is going awesome

the question is for who?

[Ouderkirk]

We never got out of the hole from 2009....recession ...?

No..this is a full on DEPRESSION. Worse than the mess FDR perpetuated.

[rollo tomasi]

Government spending includes = Part of the GDP

than

It's all just an illusion with $17 trillion/liabilities climbing. Eventually the House of Cards will implode as statisticians and economist withdraw in the fetal position with the word “unexpected” hauntingly repeated until the spin doctors come up with mass produced BS "figures" to reassure the populous.

[servantboy777]

>>Will next wk’s GDP data show #recession or, at best, very weak growth?<<

NO! The first report will look as rosy as can be. It is the two revisions afterward that will tell the story.

By the time we get to the second revision, the gubbamint will milly-mouth the numbers.