Based on the Non-Massaged Data, the US is Back in Recession

Zero Hedge ^ | 07/25/2014 | Phoenix Capital Research o

[SeekAndFind]

Beneath all of the bogus economic data, the US economy is tanking again.

One of the biggest games played by the bean counters in Washington in the US is the overstatement of GDP growth by understating inflation.

Consider this simple example. Let’s say that the US GDP grew by 10% last year. Now let’s say that inflation also grew by 10%. In this scenario, real inflation adjusted GDP growth was ZERO. However, announcing ZERO GDP growth is a major problem politically.

So what do the Feds do? They claim that inflation was just 8%, and BOOM you’ve got 2% GDP growth announced for a year in which real GDP growth was actually zero.

This game is played all the time via a metric called the GDP “deflator.” Technically what this is meant to do is remove the effects of inflation from the GDP growth numbers to show what real growth was.

However, what it actually ends up being is an accounting gimmick that allows the numbers to overstate GDP growth.

For this reason, when I look at the US economy’s growth I prefer to use its nominal GDP numbers. These numbers do not include a deflator metric. As such they’re much closer to showing the actual growth as opposed to the gimmicked “real GDP” numbers.

With that in mind, take a look at the chart below:

[SeekAndFind]

[MuttTheHoople]

We never got out. This began when the Democrats took over Congress in 2007. Republicans may be wimps, RINO's, and Vichy Republicans who savagely fight their own base while cowering in the face of Democrats, but at when they were controlling Congress and the White House, Unemployment was 4.4% and there were "Help Wanted" signs everywhere.

Now, the only place you see "Help Wanted" signs is in Texas and North Dakota.

[SeeSharp]

We’ve never been out of this recession. Government spending is not production. It is capital consumption.

[stocksthatgoup]

This is a very interesting chart! Damn reality hurts. Inflation is much higher than reported.

[tet68]

Just looking at that chart one can’t help but feel
that the down turn is JUST STARTING.

It’s all so UNEXPECTED! /s

[JerseyHighlander]

Phoenix Capital Research is a clown in a basement.

He is a decent writer but has no ability to properly analyze much of anything.

[Georgia Girl 2]

We never left recession. Now we are spiraling into depression.

[Zman516]

Trying to get through this recession burdened with Obamacare, higher taxes, massive entitlement spending, increased welfare, food stamps and etc., which the little commie RATbastard has shoved up our tailpipes, is like trying to accelerate in your car with the brakes firmly on.

[RC one]

liars figure and figures lie.

[Stentor]

Phoenix Capital Research is a clown in a basement.

Do you accept Fedgovs -2.9% in the first quarter? We know that they are clowns.

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2014 (Third Estimate)

[Balding_Eagle]

Now, the only place you see "Help Wanted" signs is in Texas and North Dakota.

I think there are more "Help Wanted" cardboard signs being held by people in need of help at street corners.

[Kartographer]

I been told in no uncertain terms by any number of FReepers that we are in boom times in fact one told me just recently we are on the cusp of a unprecedented boom times!

[cherry]

yep, people here can complain all they want about the pubs....they deserve it....and so does Dubya for some of his antics...

but at the time the Rats took control of BOTH houses in Jan 2007, we had a roaring optimistic country...we we're paying something like $1.80 for a gallon of gas, housing was booming and we we're running full throttle....

THAT is what happens when we let petty little grips about candidates get in the way of electing pubs....when we virtually hand a Senate seat in Minn to a freak because too many cheated out by voting for some stinking constitutional party self agrandizing candidate..