Tea Party Forces A Runoff in Mississippi: McDaniel and Cochran fail to win a majority

National Review ^ | 06/04/2014 | Eliana Johnson

[SeekAndFind]

It’s the scenario that Republicans on both sides of Mississippi’s hard-fought primary battle had hoped to avoid: Neither candidate in Tuesday’s primary captured 50 percent of the vote, sending the race into a June 24 runoff election.

It was a virtually unknown candidate, real-estate broker Thomas Carey of Hernando, Miss., who determined the outcome: With 99.5 percent of precincts reporting, he had captured 1.6 percent of the vote, keeping both incumbent senator Thad Cochran, with 48.8 percent, and his insurgent challenger, state senator Chris McDaniel, with 49.6 percent, under the 50 percent margin required to seize victory. Into the wee hours of the morning, Cochran advisers were predicting the senator will wind up with a lead when the last votes are counted. Regardless, it won’t be enough to push him over the 50 percent mark.

A runoff election gives McDaniel a second chance to pick off the 76-year-old Cochran. He has the wind at his back: Turnout in runoff elections is historically low and tends to favor challengers, whose supporters tend to be more motivated.

That’s why, when McDaniel addressed his supporters in Hattiesburg, Miss., shortly after midnight Wednesday, he delivered what could easily have been mistaken for a victory speech.

“Oh, my goodness, what a wonderful night,” he said. The state senator from Ellisville, Miss., a city of approximately 5,000, has cast himself as the true conservative in the race and sought to characterize Cochran as a historical relic, an appropriator and a compromiser who has proved unwilling to take the fight to President Obama.

McDaniel declared the outcome of the race a “historic moment in the state’s history.” Cochran, by contrast, did not appear to address his supporters.

National Republican groups must now decide whether to redouble their efforts on Cochran’s behalf and risk damaging McDaniel if he become the nominee in what has already been a highly personal race. The decision is made more agonizing by the fact that continuing to hammer McDaniel may have a high cost: Democrats recruited a potentially competitive nominee in the deep-red state, former representative Travis Childers, a pro-life, pro-gun legislator they believe can mount a credible campaign against McDaniel.

The outcome in Mississippi is unquestionably a victory for the GOP’s tea-party wing. Many have argued that the overarching narrative of the 2014 election cycle is of the Republican establishment vanquishing the Tea Party. The party’s insurgent forces, though, have put up a fight in only four major races: in Kentucky, where they tried and failed to unseat Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell; in Idaho, where they attempted unsuccessfully to oust representative Mike Simpson; in Nebraska, where they defeated the establishment-backed candidate, Shane Osborn; and in Mississippi, where McDaniel which a victory now hangs in the balance.

The 2014 cycle, says a top Republican strategist, is “very comparable to previous cycles where the tea-party candidates win a relatively small number of races, which is what they’ve always done in very tough primaries.”

But McDaniel strikes fear in the Republican establishment and even among some of his supporters because he is relatively untested; comments unearthed from his time as a radio talk-show host evoked the specter of failed candidacies in winnable races, like those of Todd Akin in Missouri and Richard Mourdock in Indiana. In one exchange, McDaniel discussed the possibility of paying reparations to the descendants of slaves. “If they pass reparations, and my taxes are going up, I ain’t paying taxes,” he said, and urged listeners to move to Mexico. “You know, a dollar bill can buy a mansion in Mexico.”

The McDaniel campaign suffered a major setback — and exacerbated those reservations — when a McDaniel supporter was arrested last month for breaking into the nursing home of Cochran’s bedridden wife in an attempt to produce a hit video on the senator. Three others have since been indicted in connection with the incident.

In the closing weeks of the campaign, though, and despite the Cochran camp’s attempts to tie him to the scandal, McDaniel rebounded.

If he emerges victorious later this month, he will have accomplished a feat that hasn’t been performed in Mississippi in over six decades: defeating a sitting senator running for reelection. That last happened in the Democratic primary of 1942, when James Eastland defeated Wall Doxey, who had served in the Senate for just two years.

Picking off Cochran, who has served in the Senate for 38 years, would certainly be a more impressive accomplishment. If McDaniel pulls it off, he can thank an influx of money from outside groups that marked Cochran as the most vulnerable establishment-GOP incumbent. McDaniel received over $5.2 million from groups like the Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund, compared with approximately $238,000 in individual contributions, a ratio of more than 20 to one. Cochran also received support from out-of-state groups: Organizations such as the National Association of Realtors and the American Hospital Association spent over $2.7 million to support him, while he raised nearly $700,000 from individual donors. Cochran’s ratio of out-of-state to in-state money was far lower — approximately four to one — but more than a third of Cochran’s individual contributions came from registered lobbyists in the Washington, D.C., area, including those employed by the liberal Podesta Group, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics in late February.

Cochran created his own problems, too, frustrating national Republicans last year by wringing his hands over whether to retire and surprising many in the Republican establishment when he announced in late December, two months after McDaniel announced his campaign, that he would seek reelection to a seventh term.

“I don’t think Cochran was as prepared for this challenge as other incumbents who have dealt with similar challenges. He didn’t have a lot of money or a real campaign infrastructure,” says a strategist for the McDaniel campaign. Mississippi heavyweights like former governor Haley Barbour and his sons, Austin and Henry; the state’s current governor, Phil Bryant; and former Senate majority leader Trent Lott all stepped in to boost Cochran.

Cochran supporters worked to turn out Democratic voters, placing an ad in a Jackson-based newspaper with a largely African-American readership. (That strategy is limited in the next three weeks because Mississippi election law forbids anybody who voted in Tuesday’s Democratic primary from voting in the runoff election of the opposite party.) In the end, though, even his strongest backers were expressing reservations.

“Senator Cochran has a small lead, but the McDaniel supporters are absolutely going to turn out to vote,” Henry Barbour wrote in an e-mail to supporters on Friday. “I worry that too many Cochran voters think he has it in the bag. That is not the case. A low-turnout election would spell defeat for Senator Cochran.”

In the runoff later this month, the turnout will be low indeed, and both sides are preparing for the fight. “We grew up on runoffs in Ms. This will be fun. Let’s go,” Cochran adviser Stuart Stevens said in a tweet. McDaniel assured his supporters, “Whether it’s tonight, whether it’s tomorrow, we will stand victorious in this race.”

— Eliana Johnson is a political reporter for National Review Online.

[Viennacon]

Not only that, but Jacobs came THIRD! He was also beaten by conservative Sam Clovis. It is clear the establishment has lost its leverage in Iowa.

[House Atreides]

“...but Jacobs came THIRD!...”
*****************************************************************
I didn’t know that. My, how the mighty have fallen. I watched some of a debate they had in Iowa and Sam Clovis was quite a character.

[Viennacon]

That he was, and this is really how a primary should go. I am happy with the result even though I endorsed Clovis. Ernst will be a great candidate and hopefully she’ll keep the straight and narrow when she enters the senate.

Now awaiting Bruce Braley’s dismissal of ‘dumb farmers like Grassley and Erst’. That will play well with the floating voters.

[WKB]

Mississippi has tHAD enough ping Well half of us anyway!!!

[WKB]

(” Cochran, by contrast, did not appear to address his supporters. )

It was way past his bedtime

[WKB]

Yes and it won’t be close.

[WKB]

We have voter ID that went off went off without a hitch yesterday. If that helps.

[WKB]

Hell back then everybody in Ms was a Democrat.

[StormEye]

"Picking off Cochran, who has served in the Senate for 38 years, ..."

Thad Cochran -- a prime exhibit in the museum of the fossilized Republican Party.

[Christie at the beach]

Thad really needs to Go! Turn the page with him.

[centurion316]

If McDaniel pulls it off, he can thank an influx of money from outside groups that marked Cochran as the most vulnerable establishment-GOP incumbent. McDaniel received over $5.2 million from groups like the Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund, compared with approximately $238,000 in individual contributions, a ratio of more than 20 to one. Cochran also received support from out-of-state groups: Organizations such as the National Association of Realtors and the American Hospital Association spent over $2.7 million to support him, while he raised nearly $700,000 from individual donors. Cochran’s ratio of out-of-state to in-state money was far lower — approximately four to one — but more than a third of Cochran’s individual contributions came from registered lobbyists in the Washington, D.C., area, including those employed by the liberal Podesta Group, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics in late February.

National Review is doing their best to put this in a positive light for Cochran, but if you read between the lines here, it's clear that Cochran is bought and paid for by liberal lobbyists who could care less about Mississippi. What Cochran gets out of his support to liberals is a a bid wad of pork to distribute to the Haley Barbour insiders.

[Oatka]

Cochran advisers were predicting the senator will wind up with a lead when the last votes are counted.

Uncle Joe: "Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything."

[KarlInOhio]

That was on Friday so he was talking about opinion polls.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

If McDaniels defeats Cochran in the primary run-off....which he will win, by a good margin.......Chris McDaniels in the next USA Senator from Mississipppi!!! End of story!!! Just take at look at the ballots cast for McDaniels & Cochran...over 350,000 and compare to the roughly 80,000-90,000 cast for low life, Obamabot, Democrat, Childers!!!

Take away, the low life, vermin Democrats that breached the Pubbie primary with their destructive votes, trying to defeat the Tea Party (they failed) and McDaniel wins...hands down!!!

McDaniel....do not up for one second.....destroy Obamabot lover, Thad Cochran in the runoff!!!

[Black Agnes]

You do realize that MS has open primaries. Based on my observation at my own polling place yesterday, many of the Cochran votes were Obama voters. Cochran placed ad(s) in black owned/run papers begging for dim crossover votes. And based on my, and others, observations got them.

Now, whether they’ll bother to get out and vote again, on jun 24 when it’ll be warmer and even more humid is the real question.

That most of them will be voting dim in the fall is not in question, however.

[Carry_Okie]

We also have T.W. Shannon in Oklahoma who is likely to beat establishment James Lankford to take Coburn’s seat. We lost in Alabama with Chad Mathis and in North Carolina where Greg Brannon lost. But we have forced a runoff in Georgia with Barry Loudermilk! And also Mia Love is heading to the House from Utah.

All good, but that the TEA Party couldn't come up with a credible challenge to Lindthy Graham still rankles me.

[Viennacon]

I predict Lindsey Graham is forced into a runoff. Of the three polls done in that race, all before McDaniel’s win last night, only one showed Graham over 50%

[penelopesire]

Have you all seen this:

@SenThadCochran: Welcome home, Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl. A grateful America thanks you for your service.

How out of touch can that old coot be?

If I were in ms. and on McDaniel’s team, this stupid tweet by Cochran would be front & center of any run off strategy. Just sayin.

[onyx]

Do NOT MISS THIS from penelopsire!

To: WKB; onyx

Have you all seen this:

@SenThadCochran: Welcome home, Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl. A grateful America thanks you for your service.

How out of touch can that old coot be?

If I were in ms. and on McDaniel’s team, this stupid tweet by Cochran would be front & center of any run off strategy. Just sayin.

38 posted on 06/04/2014 10:07:37 AM PDT by penelopesire (TIME FOR OBAMA TO ANSWER FOR BENGHAZI UNDER OATH!!)

B T T T ! ! ! ©

Thank you so much, from our Patriot, Mississippi hearts, dearest penelopesire!

Please pass that onto Chris McDaniel's campaign. (or I will).

BTW, Channel 12 News at Noon, shows McDaniel with 50 %, at 100% counted, but with absentee's still left to count.

[penelopesire]

Have you all seen this:

@SenThadCochran: Welcome home, Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl. A grateful America thanks you for your service.

How out of touch can that old coot be?

If I were in ms. and on McDaniel’s team, this stupid tweet by Cochran would be front & center of any run off strategy. Just sayin.

[abb]

http://www.thewire.com/politics/2014/06/one-gop-group-hopes-thad-cochran-will-walk-away-from-a-mississippi-runoff/372148/

One GOP Group Hopes Thad Cochran Will Walk Away from a Mississippi Runoff
Abby Ohlheiser

All signs point to a three-week runoff battle between longtime Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran and his Tea Party challenger Chris McDaniel. The GOP can avoid what seems sure to be a frantic three-week scramble to secure the nomination if one of two things happen: 1) the precincts who haven’t yet reported their election results manage by some miracle to bump McDaniel a few tenths of a percentage point above the simple majority threshold needed to win the primary outright, or 2) one of the two candidates steps aside. McDaniel’s allies are hoping Cochoran will do just that.

It’s easy to see why, for some, giving up early would not be the most shocking thing to happen in this midterm cycle. That’s especially after Molly Ball’s must-read Atlantic profile of Cochran on Tuesday painted a portrait of a candidate who was weary of the campaign trail, and who failed to recognize a reporter he met a half an hour ago. Cochran, 76, has said that the first thing he’d like to do after Tuesday’s primaries, if he won, was “take a nap.” He didn’t even speak to his supporters last night at his campaign’s election night party.

On Wednesday morning, the conservative Club for Growth released a statement calling for Cochran to save the GOP the pain of a runoff with a voluntary decision to discontinue his candidacy. Club for Growth President Chris Chocola said:

“Yesterday’s historic vote makes it clear that Mississippians are ready to turn the page to a new generation of bold, conservative leadership. Senator Cochran has served honorably, but the rationale for his candidacy ended yesterday. He said he didn’t want to run again, but everyone asked him to. Well, a plurality of Mississippi Republican voters just proved that they don’t want him to...He should do the honorable thing and decline to contest the runoff. Should he choose to persist, the Club for Growth PAC and conservatives throughout Mississippi will vigorously pursue this race to its conclusion, and we will look forward to the election of Senator Chris McDaniel.”

Basically, people who think a Cochran pullout is a good idea are raising two points: first, Cochran didn’t really seem to want to run for another term in the first place. And second, the votership for a primary runoff will be more conservative than it was on Tuesday, leaving many to wonder how Cochran, currently in second place, can win under that scenario. To add to the pain, a potential big GOP spender who’d be inclined to support Cochran — Karl Rove’s American Crossroads — is going to stay out of any possible runoff in Mississippi.

On the other hand, the GOP establishment also believes that a McDaniel candidacy could make Cochran’s seat an unexpected opportunity for Democrats to actually snag a Senator from Mississippi, during a midterm cycle when a GOP takeover of the Senate is within reach. McDaniel, who pitches himself as the most conservative Senate candidate in the country, is currently embroiled in a messy political scandal involving one of his allies.