Putin, Deterrence, and the Lessons of World War II (Audio)

Hoover Institution (via SoundCloud podcast service) ^ | 4/16/14 | Victor Davis Hanson

[BCrago66]

Victor Davis Hanson, the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, compares the behavior of Vladimir Putin in Crimea to Adolph Hitler in World War II Europe. Topics include comparing the Treaty of Versailles to the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, Germany’s blitzkrieg as a sign of weakness, and Japan and Germany declaring war on the United States.

[1rudeboy]

Russia did not take Crimea by force.

Dude. Putin admitted to it, already. Update your Kremlin talking points.

[BroJoeK]

BarnacleCenturion: "Russia did not take Crimea by force."

Of course it did -- with a military assault followed by a phony plebiscite, just as Hitler did in, say, Austria.

BarnacleCenturion: "This conflict was caused by the overthrow of the Ukrainian government earlier this year.
Russia is only reacting to defend itself."

Anyone who fanaticizes that Russia itself was somehow threatened by political events in Ukraine is living in a total fantasy world.
Ukrainian politics were merely Putin's excuse for invading Crimea.

BarnacleCenturion: "Is the Russian army in Ukraine right now?"

The Russian army clearly threatens eastern Ukraine, and does anyone doubt that Russian state actors are involved in various quasi-military operations within eastern Ukraine?

BarnacleCenturion: "When the Russian army begins crossing borders and holding territory you might have a point.
Until then the comparisons don’t make any sense."

As I pointed out above, Hitler occupied or invaded five territories before the western allies declared war: Rhineland, Saarland, Austria, Czechoslovakia & Poland.

In historical analogy terms, Putin's invasion of Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) equates to Hitler's moves into Rhineland & Saarland.
Putin's invasion of Crimea equates to Hitler's Anschluss of Austria.

If Putin invades Eastern Ukraine, that will be his version of Hitler's takeover of Czechoslovakia, complete with O'bama playing the Neville Chamberlain role.

Then, what's next?
Is Estonia to be Putin's Poland, the "red line" which triggers another world war?
Why not make it so tough on Putin now, that he won't be tempted to take another bite out of the territory-conquest apple?

[BroJoeK]

henkster: "I didn’t have time to listen to Hanson’s lecture..."

Well worth the time, highly recommended, none better than Hanson, imho.

henkster: "9. Sought the extermination of distinct ethnic minorities through a program that began with persecution and ended with industrial scale mass murder: Hitler: yes. Putin: No."

The apt comparison is not to Hitler in, say, 1943, but rather in, say, 1938, before the Austrian Anschluss.
At that point, Hitler's insanity was not so apparent, and might even stand comparison to, say, Putin's war against Chechen rebels.

[Timber Rattler]

Putin is exactly equivalent to democratically elected Chancellor Hitler in, let's say 1938, minus the anti-Semitism, which in those days had not yet reached the level of mass-murder. Hitler's treatment of Jews in 1938 might be reasonably compared to Putin's treatment of, oh, say, Chechens.

So Putin has written Mein Kampf and opened mass extermination camps?

[Timber Rattler]

Someone should make a movie about czarist Russia so that people like Victor Davis Hanson can extend his historical knowledge beyond Hitler and the second world war.

The Fall of Eagles

[Timber Rattler]

So the question is: where will the West draw a serious line to stop him?

So how do you propose to do this?

[BroJoeK]

Timber Rattler: "So Putin has written Mein Kampf and opened mass extermination camps?"

Hitler had no mass extermination camps in 1938 (Stalin was way ahead of him on that).

Of course, there is no Putin equivalent of Mein Kampf, but there are public statements by Putin that in effect commit him to restoring the old Russian Empire.
And Putin's brutality against, say, Chechens, can be reasonably compared to Hitler's anti-Semitism as of 1938.

Point is: Putin is still far from the Hitler of, say, 1943.
But he is very comparable to Hitler as of 1938.

[BarnacleCenturion]

“Putin’s invasion of Crimea”

Ok, I give up.

Please post pictures of the Russian ground troops in Crimea.

Also do me a favor and post the latest estimate of the casualty numbers for this “invasion”.

Thanks.

[henkster]

The Chechen issue isn’t really analagous to the “Jewish Question.” The Chechens have long been an active thorn in Russia’s side. According to the Soviets, they collaborated with the Nazis in World War 2, and earned their deportation to Central Asia. A number of Caucasian (particularly Moslem) peoples collaborated. The Chechens are conducting active terror campaigns in Russia, and, I might add, in the United States as well. In the Russian/Chechen feud it’s hard to tell who is right and who is wrong. But in no way do I see equivalency in that situation with the “Jewish Question” in 1938.

[1rudeboy]

In early March, Putin denied that the well-equipped troops operating on Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and wearing green uniforms without insignia were Russian. Anyone could buy those uniforms, he said. On Thursday, when asked about the soldiers widely known as the green men, Putin acknowledged that they were Russian. Their presence had been necessary, he said, to keep order so that Crimeans could decide their future in a referendum.

Source.

[BroJoeK]

BarnacleCenturion: "Please post pictures of the Russian ground troops in Crimea.
Also do me a favor and post the latest estimate of the casualty numbers for this “invasion”."

Here's as good a place as any to begin your education.
Please note this article is quite lengthy, and links to dozens of other more detailed reports.

[Timber Rattler]

You don’t know what you’re talking about.

[BroJoeK]

Timber Rattler: "So how do you propose to do this?"

1) Acknowledge the lessons of history, and take Putin seriously.

2) Announce that as long as Russian forces occupy or threaten their neighbors, the Cold War is back on, Round Two, and our objectives now are the same as before: to surround, isolate and contain Russian expansionism.

3) Economic sanctions against Russia and energy independence for the West, including exports of natural gas to Europe.

4) Strengthen military ties with existing NATO countries, especially Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania & Estonia.

5) Expand NATO contacts with friendly republics like Ukraine and Georgia.

6) Constant negotiations with Russia over what actions it must take to reduce rising tensions, and end Cold War II.

[BroJoeK]

Timber Rattler: "You don’t know what you’re talking about."

Oh, but I do.
Sorry FRiend, but it is you who are utterly ignorant, or totally misinformed about the facts of history and today's events.

But the Good News is: ignorance is not a genetic condition, and you can, with work, overcome it.
A great place to begin is by studying diligently the works of a great historian like Victor Davis Hanson.

Start here, start now.
There's still hope for you, FRiend.

[dfwgator]

Compare Putin now, to say Peter the Great or any other Czar.

Putin should be compared in context with other historical Russian leaders, not German ones.

[Timber Rattler]

All fantasy...the U.S. no longer has the military infrastructure or personnel, the economic might, or the political will to wage Cold War II. All of that went away, beginning with the Peace Dividend and New World Order, or have you missed that?

Just last night, I posted a Stars & Stripes article about how the U.S. Army is preparing to kick-out thousands of junior officers because of recent budget cuts and Congressionally-mandated force reductions. Do you really think that the Russians respect and fear America anymore?

As Army shrinks, young officers are being pushed out

Pentagon Plans to Shrink Army to Pre-World War II Level

US Army's last tanks depart from Germany

Budget cuts force Air Force, Navy to ground aircraft

Hagel: Navy to Lay Up 11 Cruisers, Carrier Cut Decision Delayed until 2016 Budget

You might as well be playing a game of Risk since, despite all the chest beating on this board and elsewhere, we don't have the power to push the Russians (or the Red Chinese for that matter) back anymore. Period.

[henkster]

He should, but the article was discussing a comparison with Hitler and that’s what I addressed. The biggest difference between the czars and Putin is also his greatest, and most dangerous similarity to Hitler; the desire to unify ethnic Russians/Germans into one “Motherland.” The post 17th century czars didn’t have to worry about that. I don’t realy consider the Pan Slavic movement with the czar as “The Great Father” as being equivalent.

[BarnacleCenturion]

This is from your link. Proves my point:

“Russia states that it is prepared to, but has not yet undertaken military intervention to protect people living in the Ukraine and in particular ethnic Russians living there.”

The pictures you posted are from an Iranian blog. I’m looking for pictures from a credible news source.

[BarnacleCenturion]

Look, the Spetsnaz are obviously all over the Ukraine. But they alone can’t invade a country and hold territory. Only the Russian army can do that. We are talking thousands of ground troops. But the Russian army never crossed the border:

EU spy chief rules out Russian military presence in Ukraine

http://rt.com/news/eu-no-russian-interference-ukraine-844/

The Russians are obviously backing one side of the civil war. But this is not a Russian invasion and it has nothing to do with Hitler and the second world war.

[1rudeboy]

So first, the Russians said the troops weren’t there. Then the Russians admitted they were there. But according to you, by admitting that the troops were there, they really weren’t.