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Here’s How to Think About Russia and the Ukraine Crisis
The American Conservative ^ | March 27, 2014 | DANIEL LARISON

Posted on 04/06/2014 9:45:05 PM PDT by neverdem

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1 posted on 04/06/2014 9:45:05 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Its not ideological. Russians feel deeply attached to Crimea and even Putin’s opponents consider it a part of the Motherland. Beyond that, the Russian consensus breaks down. Few in Russia want war with Ukraine or seek a confrontation with the West.

The restraint the Russians have shown reflects of how far Putin’s Russia can realistically go. Crimea was always a special case because of its predominantly Russian population and its ties to Russian history and culture. But I don’t see anything like a revival of imperial ambitions in today’s Russia.

The Ukrainian crisis is going to be resolved peacefully. But no one expects Russia to concede Crimea.


2 posted on 04/06/2014 9:53:29 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: neverdem

Putin likes globalism when it makes him rich, like bin Laden did. Putin is personally much richer than bin Laden ever dreamed of being. But Putin uses anti-globalist arguments that he doesn’t believe to fool the rubes and dupes.


3 posted on 04/06/2014 9:53:58 PM PDT by elhombrelibre (Against Obama. Against Putin. Pro-freedom.)
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To: neverdem

We supply our forces in Afghanistan via Russia. There are several different routes included in the Northern Distribution Network. The most commonly used route, though also one of the longest, starts at the port of Riga, Latvia on the Baltic Sea, and continues for 3,212 miles (5,169 km) by train southwards through Russia, using railroads built by Russia in the 1980s for the Soviet war in Afghanistan.

They are the only rocket going to the space station.

Germany and the EU is shutting down nuclear and coal...and Europe gets cold.
For extra fun, Russia prices its oil and gas contracts in US DOLLARS.

This game of starting a sanctions game for an area where the Russians have been since 1789 is ridiculous. People are acting like they are about to invade Denmark or something.


4 posted on 04/06/2014 10:17:38 PM PDT by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: neverdem

Excellent article — the first I’ve read that reflects my disdain for NATO’s misguided eastern expansions in 1999 and 2004. How did we expect Moscow to react to a hostile alliance pledging treaty membership to Russia’s immediate neighbors? What we’re witnessing now is the logical reply.


5 posted on 04/06/2014 10:45:45 PM PDT by Always A Marine
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To: wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; Eaker; Jeff Head; ...
Soft power meets hard fact - The failings of a soft power approach to Russia

The Liberal Gulag "The Brendan Eich case brings out the nature of liberal fascism."

Dems’ Voter-Fraud Denial - How do you address a problem they insist doesn’t exist? by John Fund

SCOTT WAGNER BEATS THE GOP ESTABLISHMENT - CAP and a Pennsylvania write-in revolt.

Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

6 posted on 04/06/2014 11:31:21 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: neverdem

Unfortunately, this is not only about Crimea. Check out info here https://twitter.com/search?q=ukraine


7 posted on 04/06/2014 11:52:05 PM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: neverdem
I would have agreed with the author on Saturday.

As some of you know, I've been a consistent dove on Crimea, and I have openly doubted that Putin has serious expansionist dreams.

But today, violent “pro-Russian” mobs seized government buildings in eastern Ukraine.

No way to know if these are local groups acting independently, or if this is a well planned provocation to send Russian troops into Ukraine.

Short of a USA-Russia war, I really don't see how we stop a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

8 posted on 04/06/2014 11:54:29 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: neverdem

No mention of the key thing America should do: deregulate access to extracting domestic petrochemical energy. Facilitate sale of technical means for Europe to do the same. This would do a lot to set both the Muzzies and the Russians back on their financial heels.


9 posted on 04/06/2014 11:58:40 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (ObamaCare is Medicaid: They'll pull a sheet over your head and send you the bill.)
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To: zeestephen; neverdem; gandalftb
Financially:
push down the oil prize to below 80/bbl by allowing export of oil and gas, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opponents-of-natural-gas-exports-have-it-all-wrong-2014-04-04 and http://dailycaller.com/2014/04/04/report-exporting-u-s-crude-oil-could-lower-gas-prices/ build Keystone XL pipeline,http://nypost.com/2014/03/29/the-keystone-pipeline-is-obamas-best-revenge-on-putin/

=> no more money in Soviet for military adventures.

Speed up the case against Gazprom http://www.rferl.org/content/eu-gazprom-antitrust-showdown/25260390.html and against Gunvor (the company owned by Putin) http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/3327010/Banking-and-Capital-Markets-Banking/Obamas-Warning-Shot-Sanctions-Against-Putin-Connected-Bank.html

=> less money to Putin

10 posted on 04/07/2014 12:19:21 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: AdmSmith
I disagree.

Our oil and gas reserves are privately owned, thus, they must make a profit.

Any “surplus” in our liquid petroleum comes from fracking.

Fracking is very expensive, mostly because the well must be continuously worked after drilling, and because the well is exhausted after about one year.

Most fracked wells in the USA cannot make a profit under $70 a barrel.

Same problem with natural gas and NG liquids.

We have a USA surplus when gas is $4.50 (unless we have a severe winter like 2014).

But owners will not drill new wells for under $5.50.

That means if we spent many years and many billions of dollars to build a natural gas export infrastructure, the price of natural gas in the USA would go up at least 25% when we started exporting to Europe.

Good luck selling that idea to American voters.

11 posted on 04/07/2014 1:01:11 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: zeestephen

We can make hydrocarbon fuel with low cost heat from nuclear power plants.


12 posted on 04/07/2014 1:56:35 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: DesertRhino
“We supply our forces in Afghanistan via Russia.”

Leave that damn place and let Russians pay and bleed to sort it out. It's in their neighborhood and they opened that pandora box. US/NATO should have never sent there any significant land forces, just lob tomahawks until they ship bin-laden and other al-qaeda punks.

13 posted on 04/07/2014 2:06:58 AM PDT by Grzegorz 246
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To: DesertRhino

This game of starting a sanctions game for an area where the Russians have been since 1789 is ridiculous. People are acting like they are about to invade Denmark or something.
************************************
Liked your posting, and agree. The stupid little slaps on the wrists sanctions put forth by this inept Obama administration are as bothersome to Russia as gnats. Obama, Kerry (and before him Clinton) have shown they have no concept of how to conduct foreign policies.


14 posted on 04/07/2014 3:24:06 AM PDT by octex
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To: AdmSmith
Interesting idea.

Just read a long essay about energy R&D in Israel.

Apparently they have huge deposits of kerogen, which is a precursor to crude oil and natural gas.

They are currently heating small sections of the deposit - in situ - in an attempt to convert it to a useful hydrocarbon.

I believe they use waste heat generated by solar voltaic panels.

If we had put a fraction of the R&D money from solar, wind, and fusion into safe nuclear fission research, the world would have a surplus of electricity and essentially no air pollution.

15 posted on 04/07/2014 3:43:46 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: zeestephen

It is not too late.

The Russian Stock market is falling:So far -3.53 % today http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RTS.RS


16 posted on 04/07/2014 3:52:11 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: neverdem

After being given Crimea, Putin got another large gift.

The world now knows, without any doubt, that the president of the United States is a bumbling fool with an idiot as foreign minister.


17 posted on 04/07/2014 4:19:18 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... History is a process, not an event)
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To: Always A Marine
How did we expect Moscow to react to a hostile alliance pledging treaty membership to Russia’s immediate neighbors?

By attacking and occupying them, the way it always does. Which is why those neighbors wanted to join NATO in the first place.

18 posted on 04/07/2014 4:58:29 AM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: neverdem

I think about it as follows:

Russia:Ukraine = USA:Mexico.

We’ve invaded Mexico before, we’ve taken the parts of it that seemed useful to us, I favor doing it again as often as necessary, and if Russia wanted to interfere, then or now, I’d say, “F*** ‘em”.


19 posted on 04/07/2014 5:12:59 AM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: bert; neverdem; zeestephen; Tailgunner Joe; SunkenCiv
A picture of those supporting Putin in Kharkiv (Ukraine)



source: https://twitter.com/NOVORUSSIA2014
20 posted on 04/07/2014 5:23:52 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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