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Nate Silver of 538: GOP Has 60% Chance Of Taking Senate in 2014
Real Clear Politics ^ | March 23, 2014 | Nate Silver

Posted on 03/23/2014 2:28:33 PM PDT by Din Maker

ESPN's FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver examines the state of the 2014 Senate races. Silver predicts the Republican party has a 60% chance to take the Senate in 2014. Silver also says there is a 30% chance that the GOP can "win big."

Silver says the Republican party has a 45% shot to take a Senate seat in Michigan, a 35% chance in Colorado and 30% for a seat in Iowa.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014midterms; senateraces
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Watch the Video. It covers a few more Senate Races than the article. This Statistic guru, who predicted all 50 States correctly in 2012, predicts the GOP will get the needed 6 Senate Seats for "control" and that the GOP could get a "REALLY BIG WIN".
1 posted on 03/23/2014 2:28:33 PM PDT by Din Maker
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To: Din Maker

Nate may be a leftist, but he cares more about getting the numbers right than in pushing a political agenda, so this is a good sign.


2 posted on 03/23/2014 2:38:47 PM PDT by Vision Thing (obama wants his suicidal worshipers to become suicidal bombers.)
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To: Din Maker

Well if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the GOP-e can.


3 posted on 03/23/2014 2:39:46 PM PDT by mountn man (The Pleasure You Get From Life Is Equal To The Attitude You Put Into It)
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To: Din Maker

That’s all well and good. I hope we see some changes. I am skeptical.


4 posted on 03/23/2014 2:42:36 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters for Freedom and Rededication to the Principles of the U.S. Constitution)
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To: Din Maker

GOP should get 9 seats from looking at the map IMO.


5 posted on 03/23/2014 2:42:40 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: 3Fingas

Not skeptical of the prediction, just skeptical the GOP-E will do anything differently even if they win control of the Senate.


6 posted on 03/23/2014 2:43:31 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters for Freedom and Rededication to the Principles of the U.S. Constitution)
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To: Din Maker

I tend to agree with him.


7 posted on 03/23/2014 2:45:15 PM PDT by Free Vulcan (Vote Republican! You can vote Democrat when you're dead...)
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To: 3Fingas

They need 60 seats for cloture to pass legislation, if they follow traditional rules. Ain’t gonna happen.


8 posted on 03/23/2014 2:45:23 PM PDT by research99
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To: mountn man
Well if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the GOP-e can.

I am not sure even these toads can, cases in point. The FLA win was huge IMHO, even with a fake libertarian and what they gin up, they still wouldn't win, which makes me wonder did he win with more like 10% than 1.6%. But the Win in PA via the write in? Katie bar the door, if that isn't an indication that people are pissed off on steroids I don't know what is. Maybe Bevin should do a write-in in KY !

9 posted on 03/23/2014 2:48:25 PM PDT by taildragger (The E-GOP won't know what hit them, The Party of Reagan is almost here, hang tight folks....)
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To: Din Maker
Aint it about time for the toe sucker to make his grand re entrance?
10 posted on 03/23/2014 2:50:16 PM PDT by crz
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To: 3Fingas
Not skeptical of the prediction, just skeptical the GOP-E will do anything differently even if they win control of the Senate.

It's prolly is the sum of all fears here in FR, and why I think it's one of the reasons why McConnell needs to be beaten in the primary and we have a Bevin win. It might send a signal to Obama that it won't be all comity and roses as one of our fire-brands would run for Majority Leader IMHO...

11 posted on 03/23/2014 2:51:06 PM PDT by taildragger (The E-GOP won't know what hit them, The Party of Reagan is almost here, hang tight folks....)
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To: mountn man

Well if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the GOP-e can.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I wish we could go one day here on Free Republic without someone posting that tired, old, worn out sh*t.


12 posted on 03/23/2014 2:51:22 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: research99

The GOPe will probably decide to do powersharing....and sit back like the losers and grifters they are.


13 posted on 03/23/2014 2:52:20 PM PDT by Aria ( 2008 & 2012 weren't elections - they were coup d'etats.)
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To: LongWayHome

GOP should get 9 seats from looking at the map IMO.
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I predicted a pick up of 9 seats a few days ago: AK, AR, CO, LA, MT, MI, NC, SD and WV. Are those the 9 you see the GOP picking up?


14 posted on 03/23/2014 2:54:06 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: Din Maker

Nate isn’t taking into consideration the MASSIVE and I mean MASSIVE voter fraud the left will do in November..Dems count on that to win


15 posted on 03/23/2014 2:55:14 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Din Maker

“I wish we could go one day here on Free Republic without someone posting that tired, old, worn out sh*t.”

You’ve been registered on FR for 6 months?

How about the rest of us who heard this longer than you?


16 posted on 03/23/2014 2:55:22 PM PDT by max americana (fired liberals in our company last election, and I laughed while they cried (true story))
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To: research99

True, but even a simple majority means Harry Reid is no longer Majority Leader.


17 posted on 03/23/2014 2:55:45 PM PDT by MCF
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To: crz

Aint it about time for the toe sucker to make his grand re entrance?
_________________________________________________________________________________________

Wow! I clean forgot about Dick Morris? Where is he? Did he drop off the planet or die or what?


18 posted on 03/23/2014 2:55:57 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: MCF

Harry Reid is only part of the problem.

67 seats is needed to convict in an impeachment trial.


19 posted on 03/23/2014 2:59:20 PM PDT by research99
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Nate isn’t taking into consideration the MASSIVE and I mean MASSIVE voter fraud the left will do in November
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Well, I’m new to FR, but, most political websites give some credence to what you said above. However, no one has ever produced proof that there is “MASSIVE” voter fraud. If you have proof; lay it on us. I mean, old man, Mayor Daley of Chicago, has been dead a long time.


20 posted on 03/23/2014 2:59:26 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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