Posted on 05/01/2013 6:35:31 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Just before the ADP employment report was released this morning, I asked Business Insider’s Joseph Weisenthal to give me his prediction — a rather unfair request in retrospect, since the report was due in 2 minutes at that point. He graciously offered his prediction anyway:
@edmorrissey Hrm. I’ll go weak. 120K vs. expectations of 150k.
— Joseph Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) May 1, 2013
As it turns out, Joe was almost exactly correct:
Private sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs from March to April, according to the April ADP National Employment Report® , which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The March report, which reported job gains of 158,000, was revised downward to 131,000 jobs.
Goods-producing employment rose by 6,000 jobs in April, its slowest pace of growth in seven months. Though it accounted for most of the weakness in goods production job growth in March, construction growth picked up in April and the industry added 15,000 jobs over the month. Meanwhile, manufacturers shed 10,000 jobs in April—the first decline in three months and the largest since September 2012.
Service-providing jobs increased by 113,000, the weakest pace of growth in seven months.
Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report,
trade/transportation/utilities had the largest gain with 29,000 jobs added over the month. Professional/business services followed, adding 20,000 jobs, and financial activities added 7,000 jobs.
Normally we put the ADP results through the 60-80% rinse cycle, but they actually missed last month even with that in mind. Their sharp downward revision to the March numbers still puts their estimate far above the BLS figure of 88K in March.
Applying the 60-80% filter to ADP’s new numbers, that would give us a projected figure for the BLS jobs report due Friday at somewhere between 71,000 and 95,0000. That is an ugly, ugly range — at the low end, only half of what is needed just to keep up with population growth. And “ugly” is exactly the word CNBC uses in its headline:
Economists surveyed by Reuters expected the ADP report to show the private sector created 150,000 jobs in April, down from 158,000 in March.
“Nearly every industry has seen slower growth since the beginning of the year,” Moody’s economist Mark Zandi said on CNBC. “Smaller businesses are experiencing much weaker growth.”
Joe Weisenthal points out that manufacturing actually retreated:
The number is out and it’s weak. Analysts were looking for 150K new private sector jobs. …
This chart from the report is particularly interesting. According to ADP, manufacturing actually lost jobs!
Expect pessimism in the markets today, although most of this was probably already suspected. Even the higher expectation of 150K from ADP was a stagnation-level prediction. The BLS report is going to come in well short of that on Friday. Tomorrow, we should have Gallup’s data, and can start framing expectations of the official jobs report, and perhaps more importantly, predict whether the workforce numbers are still eroding past 34-year lows.
This news is being buried in the Main Stream Media. 119,000 is 2380 average per state, not a positive sign for the economy.
Not necessarily. Hordes of foreigners are coming into the country and accepting measly pay for jobs in science and technology. One of our sons had to settle for years of low-paying post doc grant funded jobs, and he has a doctorate in toxicology. Everybody is having trouble finding work in Obama’s socialist utopia.
I empathize for your son’s situation. Yet I still maintain a marketable education is one that is desired amongst the capitalistic movers and shakers of this economy.
Granted, a PHD in toxicology on its face seems marketable, but where? In what context? You have to admit, Obama-sympathized or controlled media certainly does their own specious science - perhaps some of what they misinform the masses about includes toxicology....
Science and truth doesn’t matter to them. Only goals - their goals. And those goals aren’t remotely related to “science”.....I give you Global Warming or only a few of the CDC’s ideologically biased “studies” as an example.
I’m not sure how much education means in our current economic situation. The people who are finding jobs are those with work experience, and particularly, those who know how to do something, as opposed to just knowing something.
People who are experienced and know how to cut hair, repair things, operate complex machinery, for example, will always be in demand. Considering our slide into socialism, they may have to participate in the underground economy to make a living, but their skills will always be in demand.
People who are educated, but not skilled are the ones who are going to be in trouble when everything falls apart.
BTW, our son has a good job now with a company supplying research material for pharmaceutical companies (not that I really understand what he does), but who knows what will happen when Obamacare is fully implemented? I can’t believe people in this country are giving up the best medical care in the world for 3rd world socialized medicine.
Ha, if he did vote for Obama, I’m going to smack him the next time I see him!
No, he didn’t. :-)
I am glad your son found a job that is meaningful and applicable to his discipline.
Also, before I retired 15 months ago, I ran an engineering division of about 34-35 engineers. All masters and PhD educated. The last PhD I hired out of school with no work experience took the offer at $90K+ The lowest salary I had for any of my people was in the $65-70K range - fresh out of school.
Yeah...you could see the pixel change where the rewritten lines were added...
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