Skip to comments.Demographics (Race) Overtakes Economy as Prime Presidential Election Indicator
Posted on 04/27/2013 10:16:38 AM PDT by blam
Demographics Overtakes Economy as Prime Presidential Election Indicator
Geoffrey Skelley, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics
April 25th, 2013
One of the questions we asked prior to the 2012 election was whether or not state-level unemployment figures would matter much on Election Day. As it turned out, the answer was probably not much.
Throughout the 2012 election cycle, the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report became a highly anticipated event. Politicians, journalists and election handicappers (the Crystal Ball included) waited eagerly every first Friday of the month, anticipating what the national unemployment number would say about President Obamas reelection chances. Then, toward the end of each month, the BLS released the state-by-state numbers, sparking further debate about the relative importance of state numbers, particularly in the swing states.
In hindsight, the relentless focus on jobs numbers, at least in the states, was overwrought. Political science research indicates that while the national economic situation influences presidential races, the state-by-state rates do not appear to affect the outcome all that much. That the states swung relatively uniformly in their election results from 2008 to 2012, regardless of the changes in employment numbers, gives even more credence to the argument that individual state-level employment data are relatively unimportant.
Just look at the case of Nevada. As Chart 1 shows, Fridays state jobless report finds Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. From the September 2012 data, one can see that the Silver State also held this dubious honor when the last pre-election state-level report was released in October 2012. Yet despite Nevadas poor economic condition, President Obama won its six electoral votes by a little less than seven percentage points. If they voted today, Nevadans would likely choose the president once again. Something else seems to matter more than unemployment right now: demographics.
Chart 1: State-by-state unemployment rates, September 2012 and March 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
As in many other states, Nevada would have supported Mitt Romney if only white voters had had their way last November. In the Silver State, whites supported Romney 57%-41% over Obama but whites only made up 64% of Nevadas electorate. Conversely, nearly three-fourths of the 36% of the Nevada electorate that wasnt white supported Obama, assuring the incumbent of victory there. As we discussed last week, only two swing states white voters supported Obama over Romney: Iowa and New Hampshire. In all the other key battleground states that he won, minority voters made the difference for Obama, overcoming margins as large as 61%-37% for Romney among Floridas white voters.
As long as the major parties are worlds apart in terms of the diversity of their respective bases, the demographics as destiny storyline will prove to be substantially true. While the economy will remain a vital factor in presidential elections, with the national unemployment rate playing a major role in driving public opinion, the demographics
BS...FRAUD was the overwhelming indicator...
..nothing bias there eh?
Yup, freebies over freedom
Yup, skin color over character
I agree. If fraud isn’t a major factor in our so called elections, the Communist DemocRAT Party wouldn’t be working so hard to keep voter ID out of the process. If America needs any “reform” right now, it is “reform” of the voting process. What we have right now is a sad joke on the American people. The voters no longer have any say in who gets “elected”. The DemocRATS now decide that. They have to allow a few GOPers to win to make it look as though their elections are fair and honest.
So we’ve become so shallow that the “coolest” minority is going to be president huh?
Communists always steal elections. They never have the numbers. I can't think of one case in history where they have had a majority.
They seize power either through fraud or some other means of manipulation. Then they rely on the weakness of the average person to do nothing about it.
Conversely, nearly three-fourths of the 36% of the Nevada electorate that wasnt white supported Obama, assuring the incumbent of victory there
So 75% of minorities vote Democrat. Well heck lets make another 30 million of them legal and register them to vote. Stupid amnesty loving Republicans. They deserve to be voted out of existence.
Was a time years ago when a case could be made for affirmative action - a step to undo unfairness that had gone on for years for blacks ... it mattered. But that time is over.
Sad to say...HE is right!
Blacks and Hispanics turned out to vote....Whites, especially conservatives made a very poor showing at the polls.
Why the vote went for Obozo:
1.Obama and the Dems are demagogues which ultimately appeals to low-information and entitlement voters.
2.The Dems campaigned and connected with the voters ( email, facebook, door to door, churches, blak and hispanic organizations) almost weekly, at least monthly for FOUR YEARS.
THE CONSERVATIVES ‘CAMPAGINED” 6 months before election.
3. Dems have the Unions.
3. The Republican candidate and the primary debates were a disaster.
4.Minorities do not have a stake in the capitalist dream.
Why did Allen West lose when Obama won?
I think the author of this study needs to dig deeper. I think that it’s very easy to say that Americans who are black will always overwhelmingly support a black candidate.I didn’t see a lot of Democrats who are black stand up for Alan Keyes when he ran for President. How about Herman Cain?