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BP: Shale gas, tight oil to reshape global markets by 2030
Oil & Gas Journal ^ | Feb. 5, 2013 | Nick Snow

Posted on 02/06/2013 8:18:44 AM PST by thackney

The North American shale gas and tight oil revolution will reshape global markets, changing economic expectations and rebalancing trade flows, BP PLC said in its BP Energy Outlook 2030.

“As the US becomes 99% self-sufficient by 2030, oil imports’ share of its trade and services deficit will approach zero,” said Mark Finley, general manager for global energy markets and US economics at BP America Inc. North America will continue to dominate shale gas and tight oil production growth during that period because so much of its resource base is privately owned, and drilling contractors, service and supply companies, and other support industries are heavily concentrated there, he said during a Feb. 5 presentation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Activity matters, in addition to rig fleet size,” Finley said. “Our research indicates North America will remain the driving force in unconventional resource development.” US unconventional oil and gas production now equals Argentina’s total oil and gas output (but with significantly more wells), and North America is expected to still dominate production by 2030, even while other regions gradually adapt to develop their resources, he added.

BP’s latest energy outlook, which it released on Jan. 16 in London, said that worldwide, there are an estimated 240 billion bbl of technically recoverable tight oil resources and 200 trillion cu m (tcm) of shale gas. Asia’s resources total an estimated 50 billion bbl of tight oil and 57 tcm of shale gas, compared with North America’s 70 billion bbl of tight oil and 47 tcm of shale gas, it indicated.

While technology and policies will continue to influence the global energy mix, Finley said prices will be the biggest factor. Crude oil’s share of total markets has declined for 13 consecutive years, and average annual real oil prices in 2007-11 were 220% than their 1997-2001 average, he noted. BP expects oil to continue losing market share through 2030 as gas and renewable energy show gains, he said.

Transportation trends

“In transportation, oil has a virtual monopoly, with 94% of the global market,” Finley said. “We expect its share to be around 80% by 2030. Where it has competition, however, oil is losing its market share.”

BP expects transportation energy demand growth to fall to 1.2%/year through 2030 from 1.9% from 1990 through 2010, primarily from accelerating fuel economy gains. This will come not just from government standards, but also from consumers, Finley said. “Basically, they put the Hummer brand out of business as fuel prices have climbed,” he observed.

Gas is expected to make only modest transportation inroads through 2030 due to limited refueling infrastructure and uncertain price prospects which will discourage major investments, according to Finley. “The key questions for renewables will be whether their growth can be sustained with greatly reduced, or no, government subsidies, and how soon economies of scale will make those subsidies unnecessary,” he said. “Relative prices matter,” Finley maintained. “A higher oil price drives development of more alternatives. Check back in a couple of years.”


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: energy; naturalgas; oil; shale

1 posted on 02/06/2013 8:18:51 AM PST by thackney
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Full Report with lots of graphs

BP’s Energy Outlook 2030
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/BP_World_Energy_Outlook_booklet_2013.pdf


2 posted on 02/06/2013 8:21:19 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney
The OPEC nations have been spending money like drunken sailors.

This is going to turn their worlds upside down.

3 posted on 02/06/2013 8:24:15 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (TYRANNY: When the people fear the politicians. LIBERTY: When the politicians fear the people.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

No our government will figure out a way for the American taxpayer go give them more money.

And 2030 is due to government regulations, not our ability to be self sufficient now.


4 posted on 02/06/2013 8:37:49 AM PST by edcoil (Manage your own lawsuit: www.jurisdictionary.com?refercode=KK0012)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Green River Formation baby....1 Trillion barrels recoverable...3 Trillion total.


5 posted on 02/06/2013 8:40:12 AM PST by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
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To: thackney
North America will continue to dominate shale gas and tight oil production growth during that period because so much of its resource base is privately owned...

Our economy booms, everyplace the government isn't. There is a message there. America's problems are self inflicted, and stem from the Whitey Hut on down.

6 posted on 02/06/2013 9:37:19 AM PST by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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To: thackney

Too bad we have an anti energy dictator in the White House. Imagine what could be accomplished with a pro American, pro energy leader.


7 posted on 02/06/2013 10:19:16 AM PST by pallis
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To: thackney
Forecasts can be subject to change.
It's like the ever changing thought with science, what was thought true one day can change the next day.

8 posted on 02/06/2013 7:23:27 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Spending like drunken sailors as in not reinvesting in the very industry that they depend on ?.
They are in for a rude awakening.
9 posted on 02/06/2013 7:25:59 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: spokeshave
Isn't that mostly on Federal lands in Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado ?
Good thing about that is that they say it holds more recoverable oil than all the middle east combined.
IF ? The Federal government was smart, are you listening Federal government ? is that they would allow leases and companies to develop that oil, gas, and it would help in reducing our national debt.
10 posted on 02/06/2013 7:30:45 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: American in Israel
yes, economics 101, in which every congressman and Senator should take a class in before being eligible to run for congress.
Economics 101, less taxes ? more economic activity.
More economic activity with less taxes means more revenue for the government.
Did you hear that government ? yes, that means more for you, that is ? if the market was left alone to do it's thing.

11 posted on 02/06/2013 7:35:22 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: pallis
Anyone who has played all editions of SIM CITY has learned how to run a city and has more understanding how a economy works than these folks in Washington.
As in that there are laws of nature, there are also laws in economics.
12 posted on 02/06/2013 7:37:50 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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